32 Hidden Valley Dr · Scotchtown, NY 10941

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured · 34 Days on market

Built 2017 Good condition $946/mo HOA · 39% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms manufacture home. Open floor plan, combination kitchen dining room with sliding glass door that lead to a deck. Besides the 2 bedrooms you also have an office, great for those that work from home. Located in the Valley Central School District. Very easy to show. Furniture in the home is negotiable.

Key facts

• Office
• Open floor plan
• Sliding glass door

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SLIDING GLASS DOOR
• OFFICE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; Association fee $946 per month; Association covers grounds care, sewer, snow removal, trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no carport)
• Utilities: Electricity connected (Orange & Rockland); Propane; Sewer: other
• Home design: Mobile home; Living area based on plans
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Recessed lighting; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-665/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (5.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Scotchtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#515 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Valley Central School District (Montgomery) (rural): math 54% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #299 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 548 students, 34% FRL); Valley Central Middle School (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #480 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 982 students, 41% FRL); Valley Central High School (math 95% / reading 87%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 1,346 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 57 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.

Recommended offer $141,887 (5.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.58%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-26,830
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-23,876
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10941

• Home prices YoY: -22.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,439 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$946
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,509

Max offer price $141,887

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $946 · $11,352/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $149,900 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $165,000 Active 346-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,341
• − Management: −$2,341
• − HOA: −$11,352
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,526
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$606
• After-tax cash flow: $-58/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 22 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance and updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance
• Both Replace carpet in living areas — New carpet can improve comfort and reduce maintenance
• Both Clean and maintain HVAC system — A clean and well-maintained HVAC system can improve air quality and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance ↑
• Both Replace carpet in living areas — New carpet can improve comfort and reduce maintenance ↑
• Both Clean and maintain HVAC system — A clean and well-maintained HVAC system can improve air quality and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Central School District (Montgomery)
• NCES district ID: 3619680
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,186
• Composite: 47.53/100
• National rank: #2271
• State rank: #299 of 590 in NY

Livability — Scotchtown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #9142

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 14,422
• Household income: $99,238
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 525.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 21% Two or more races 16% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.38%
• Current HPI: 326.3597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.15%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $149,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $159,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $165,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid