5402 Chateau Ln · Bayshore Gardens, FL 34207

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1972 6,395 sqft lot $250/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 5402 Chateau Lane, a beautifully updated turnkey home located in the highly sought-after 55+ community of Chateau Village in Bradenton. Situated on a rare oversized corner lot and outside of a flood zone, this fully renovated 2-bedroom, 1-bath residence offers the perfect combination of comfort, convenience, and low-maintenance Florida living. With HOA fees of just $250 per month, you'll enjoy an affordable lifestyle with more time to relax and enjoy all that the Gulf Coast has to offer. Inside, the home has been thoughtfully reimagined with high-end finishes and modern upgrades throughout. Luxury vinyl flooring flows seamlessly from room to room, while the spa-inspired bathroom

Key facts

• Oversized corner lot
• Japanese soaking tub
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• OVERSIZED CORNER LOT
• SPA INSPIRED BATHROOM
• JAPANESE SOAKING TUB
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LEATHERED GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total building area reported as 1,430 square feet; Living area reported as 720 square feet; Total acreage listed as 0 to less than 1/4 acre
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required (Patrick); Monthly HOA fee $250 — includes cable TV, pool, internet, grounds maintenance, management, sewer, trash, water; Community clubhouse and pool; Shuffleboard court; Senior community; Association approval required; pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One level; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.15-acre lot
• Exterior features: Storage; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-354/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (4.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, schools F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $130k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,692 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.97%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $59,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
214 52nd Avenue Dr W	0.30mi	3/1.5 (+1)	728 (+1%)	3mo	$87,900	$121	75
301 Brazil Ct #95	0.18mi	2/1.5	792 (+10%)	2mo	$66,000	$83	71
302 52nd Avenue Ter E	0.50mi	2/2.0	728 (+1%)	1mo	$170,000	$234	70
415 Dublin Ave	0.13mi	2/1.0	624 (-13%)	3mo	$50,000	$80	69
403 51st Avenue Dr W	0.37mi	1/1.0 (-1)	740 (+3%)	8mo	$37,000	$50	67
1112 51st Avenue Dr W	0.46mi	2/2.0	740 (+3%)	7mo	$69,900	$94	64
719 50th Avenue Ter W	0.43mi	2/1.5	770 (+7%)	3mo	$95,000	$123	63
718 50th Avenue Dr W	0.47mi	1/2.0 (-1)	724 (+1%)	10mo	$49,000	$68	60
411 51st Avenue Ter W	0.30mi	2/2.0	800 (+11%)	8mo	$65,000	$81	57
1002 51st Avenue Plz W	0.38mi	2/2.0	784 (+9%)	9mo	$85,000	$108	56
1112 49th Avenue Ter W	0.61mi	2/1.5	770 (+7%)	4mo	$36,000	$47	55
108 50th Avenue Dr W	0.54mi	1/1.0 (-1)	612 (-15%)	10mo	$30,000	$49	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-26,714
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-40,287
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34207

• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 361
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,339 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,221/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,376

Max offer price $124,692

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 52nd Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	528	$1,200	$2.27	23d	1	0.36mi
110 52nd Avenue Ter E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	684	$1,450	$2.12	23d	1	0.46mi
915 50th Avenue Plz W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	23d	1	0.50mi
707 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	730	$1,150	$1.58	23d	1	0.53mi
5531 16th St W Unit 5537 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,650	$2.20	3d	1	0.60mi
4903 2nd B St E Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	624	$2,400	$3.85	23d	1	0.75mi
304 47th Avenue Dr W #112 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	23d	1	0.78mi
5908 17th St W Unit C36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$950	$1.65	16d	1	0.89mi
1566 Pleasant Rd Unit J24 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	23d	1	0.92mi
1807 Restful Dr Unit N4 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	3d	1	0.93mi
5888 17th St W Unit C23 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	23d	1	0.94mi
4507 3rd Street Cir W #280 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	660	$1,300	$1.97	16d	1	0.95mi
1859 Restful Dr Unit L26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,150	$2.00	23d	1	0.96mi
1875 Sunny Dr Unit G32 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	23d	1	0.97mi
1825 Flamingo Blvd Unit O26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,000	$1.74	23d	1	0.99mi
1839 Sunny Dr Unit E36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,350	$2.34	23d	1	0.99mi
1874 Sunny Dr Unit F32 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$950	$1.28	23d	1	1.00mi
5858 Welcome Rd Unit J23 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,150	$1.55	3d	1	1.01mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	16d	1	1.04mi
5955 Palm Ln Unit A33 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,150	$1.55	14d	1	1.06mi
2028 Canal Dr Unit M26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,050	$1.82	10d	1	1.08mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,450	$1.84	11d	5	1.16mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,450	$1.84	3d	4	1.16mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,550	$1.96	19d	5	1.16mi
2547 60th Ave W Unit L-36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	16d	1	1.22mi
5400 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	902	$1,651	$1.83	23d	1	1.27mi
2803 52nd Avenue Dr W Unit 2803 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,599	$2.13	23d	1	1.30mi
2835 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,610	$1.89	3d	16	1.39mi
4515 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,510	$1.87	1d	14	1.40mi
4705 27th St W Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,325	$1.77	2d	1	1.42mi
1345 301 Blvd E Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,320	$1.51	23d	9	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on marketlisting id $129,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $136,111 Active 334 DOM
13. 2026-05-08
    price $136,111
14. 2026-03-13
    price $148,888
15. 2025-12-31
    price $175,000
16. 2025-07-01
    listed $188,000 Active
17. 2018-01-26
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,221 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,221 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,221
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,285
• − Management: −$1,285
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$2,431
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$584
• After-tax cash flow: $230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayshore Gardens

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1180

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayshore Gardens, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,081
• Household income: $45,010
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1474.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -305.32%
• Current HPI: 369.9899
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.50%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+109.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $136,111 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $148,888 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-01 Listed $188,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,221 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.