Drayton Plan · World Golf Village, FL 32095

$365,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,509 sqft · SingleFamily · 393 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The new construction Drayton at The Preserve at Bannon Lakes comes with customizable designer options to suit your lifestyle. Tailor your home with exterior color choices and upgrade the Owner's Bath with an optional walk-in shower. The 2-car garage includes a 4-foot extension, offering extra space for a large vehicle or additional storage needs.

Key facts

• New construction
• 4-foot extension
• 2-car garage

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPTIONAL WALK-IN SHOWER
• 4-FOOT EXTENSION
• 2-CAR GARAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $365,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $406,503.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $366k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-716 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.0% in World Golf Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#168 in FL, #2,512 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 456 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 393 days — a 12% lower offer ($322k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,875 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 393 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.22%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $406,503
• List price: $365,990
• Delta: -9.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36 Greenhead Ct	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,509 (0%)	6mo	$364,890	$242	82
348 Blind Oak Cir	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,509 (0%)	4mo	$355,000	$235	81
382 Blind Oak Cir	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,510 (+0%)	5mo	$377,930	$250	80
195 Blind Oak Cir	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,509 (0%)	8mo	$382,830	$254	78
201 Blind Oak Cir	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,509 (0%)	8mo	$382,000	$253	77
68 Ash Breeze Cv	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,716 (+14%)	3mo	$410,000	$239	60
45 Blind Oak Cir	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,720 (+14%)	5mo	$399,930	$233	57
226 Blind Oak Cir	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,720 (+14%)	1mo	$395,980	$230	54
532 Bluejack Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,342 (-11%)	2mo	$335,000	$250	51
219 Bluejack Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (+9%)	3mo	$342,000	$208	50
120 Dove Tree Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,604 (+6%)	2mo	$475,000	$296	50
208 River Mist Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,710 (+13%)	2mo	$345,000	$202	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-114,760
• Equity at exit: $60,611

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-171,876
• Equity at exit: $35,147

Cash invested: $113,821 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32095

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 456
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,809 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,132
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$508 /mo · $6,098/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $-716

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,715

Max offer price $302,962

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-435	-5% $-575	+0% $-716	+5% $-856	+10% $-996
Rent	-10% $-937	-5% $-826	+0% $-716	+5% $-605	+10% $-494
Rate	-1.0pp $-511	-0.5pp $-612	base $-716	+0.5pp $-821	+1.0pp $-928

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,626
• Closing costs: $12,195
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
59 Bluejack Ln Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,850	$1.85	2d	1	0.57mi
50 Wexford Way St. Augustine, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,592	$2.65	4d	53	0.75mi
50 Ventures Dr St. Augustine, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$2,020	$2.00	2d	20	1.03mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,990 Active 393 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,990 Active 392 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,990 Active 391 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,990 Active 390 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,990 Active 388 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,990 Active 387 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $365,990 Active 384 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $365,990 Active 383 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $365,990 Active 382 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $365,990 Active 378 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $365,990 Active 377 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,990 Active 376 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,990 Active 375 DOM
14. 2026-03-04
    price $365,990 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    The new construction Drayton at The Preserve at Bannon Lakes comes with customizable designer options to suit your lifestyle. Tailor your home with exterior color choices and upgrade the Owner's Bath with an optional walk-in shower. The 2-car garage includes a 4-foot extension, offering extra space for a large vehicle or additional storage needs.

15. 2025-07-09
    price $363,490 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    The new construction Drayton at The Preserve at Bannon Lakes comes with customizable designer options to suit your lifestyle. Tailor your home with exterior color choices and upgrade the Owner's Bath with an optional walk-in shower. The 2-car garage includes a 4-foot extension, offering extra space for a large vehicle or additional storage needs.

16. 2025-05-21
    listed $361,490 Active 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    The new construction Drayton at The Preserve at Bannon Lakes comes with customizable designer options to suit your lifestyle. Tailor your home with exterior color choices and upgrade the Owner's Bath with an optional walk-in shower. The 2-car garage includes a 4-foot extension, offering extra space for a large vehicle or additional storage needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone A · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,771
• − Property taxes: −$6,098
• − Insurance: −$3,535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,696
• − Management: −$2,696
• − Depreciation: −$11,826
• Taxable loss: −$15,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,820
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — World Golf Village

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #2512

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: World Golf Village, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 48,288
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,399
• Household income: $136,038
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 101.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.44%
• Current HPI: 246.0743
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.77%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $365,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $363,490 Zillow
• 2025-05-21 Listed $361,490 Zillow