4649 Lemonwood Ln · Odessa, TX 79761

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,725 sqft · Other public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1981 7,183 sqft lot $122/sqft · 9% below area Est $230k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Low maintenance 3 bed 2 bath duplex side with covered patio, 2 car rear entry garage with additional parking, and small yard. Large living room with high ceilings. Formal dining area as well as breakfast nook. Tons of storage throughout as well. Large bedrooms with good sized closets. Home to be sold As is, Where is, with All Faults. Bring offers!!!

Key facts

• 7,183 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 93 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.44%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,616
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -8.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-20,051
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-15,284
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79761

• Home prices YoY: -31.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,075 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,631/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,676

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1326 French Ave Unit A Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1600	$2,000	$1.25	44d	1	0.22mi
4607 Garden Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1937	$2,400	$1.24	21d	1	0.22mi
105 Quail Run Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,600	$1.67	44d	1	0.43mi
1334 Tanglewood Ln Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	2200	$2,000	$0.91	13d	1	0.52mi
2735 E 8th St Odessa, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	842	$1,844	$2.19	13d	8	0.64mi
2705 Cambridge St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,400	$1.65	21d	1	0.99mi
2620 Cambridge St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1595	$1,950	$1.22	21d	1	1.06mi
2201 Rocky Lane Rd Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	900	$1,675	$1.86	13d	10	1.15mi
2511 Beechwood St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,595	$1.18	13d	1	1.30mi
3310 Tanglewood Ln Unit 1 Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	1732	$2,200	$1.27	21d	1	1.36mi
3312 Tanglewood Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,000	$1.20	44d	1	1.36mi
3916 Boulder Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1935	$2,100	$1.09	21d	1	1.40mi
3616 E 30th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,995	$1.39	44d	1	1.42mi
2608 Cumberland Rd Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $209,900 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 172 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 171 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 169 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,900 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 166 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,900 Active 164 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 163 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,900 Active 162 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 365-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $209,900 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,900 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $214,900 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-03-31
    status Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Low maintenance 3 bed 2 bath duplex side with covered patio, 2 car rear entry garage with additional parking, and small yard. Large living room with high ceilings. Formal dining area as well as breakfast nook. Tons of storage throughout as well. Large bedrooms with good sized closets. Home to be sold As is, Where is, with All Faults. Bring offers!!!

18. 2026-03-26
    historical 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Low maintenance 3 bed 2 bath duplex side with covered patio, 2 car rear entry garage with additional parking, and small yard. Large living room with high ceilings. Formal dining area as well as breakfast nook. Tons of storage throughout as well. Large bedrooms with good sized closets. Home to be sold As is, Where is, with All Faults. Bring offers!!!

19. 2026-03-24
    status Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Low maintenance 3 bed 2 bath duplex side with covered patio, 2 car rear entry garage with additional parking, and small yard. Large living room with high ceilings. Formal dining area as well as breakfast nook. Tons of storage throughout as well. Large bedrooms with good sized closets. Home to be sold As is, Where is, with All Faults. Bring offers!!!

20. 2026-03-17
    historical 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Low maintenance 3 bed 2 bath duplex side with covered patio, 2 car rear entry garage with additional parking, and small yard. Large living room with high ceilings. Formal dining area as well as breakfast nook. Tons of storage throughout as well. Large bedrooms with good sized closets. Home to be sold As is, Where is, with All Faults. Bring offers!!!

21. 2026-02-03
    price $214,900 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Low maintenance 3 bed 2 bath duplex side with covered patio, 2 car rear entry garage with additional parking, and small yard. Large living room with high ceilings. Formal dining area as well as breakfast nook. Tons of storage throughout as well. Large bedrooms with good sized closets. Home to be sold As is, Where is, with All Faults. Bring offers!!!

22. 2025-12-15
    listed $224,900 Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Low maintenance 3 bed 2 bath duplex side with covered patio, 2 car rear entry garage with additional parking, and small yard. Large living room with high ceilings. Formal dining area as well as breakfast nook. Tons of storage throughout as well. Large bedrooms with good sized closets. Home to be sold As is, Where is, with All Faults. Bring offers!!!

23. 2005-03-02
    soldstatus
24. 2005-02-25
    soldstatus 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    DARLING 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH TOWNHOME! HIGH CEILINGS! IMMACULATE. SKYLIGHTS! LOW MAINTENANCE YARD! WOOD DECK. * * SELLER WILL NOT REPAIR SEVERAL THERMOPANE WINDOWS THAT HAVE LOST THEIR VACUUM SEAL (SOLD "AS IS")!

25. 2004-11-30
    listed $95,500 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    DARLING 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH TOWNHOME! HIGH CEILINGS! IMMACULATE. SKYLIGHTS! LOW MAINTENANCE YARD! WOOD DECK. * * SELLER WILL NOT REPAIR SEVERAL THERMOPANE WINDOWS THAT HAVE LOST THEIR VACUUM SEAL (SOLD "AS IS")!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,631 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,841 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,210/yr (+$184/mo · 135.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$1,631
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,992
• − Management: −$1,992
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable income: $376
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$90
• After-tax cash flow: $3,695/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,164
• Household income: $68,228
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1352.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.66%
• Current HPI: 254.9159
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+125.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2026-03-26 Delisted — ODMLS
• 2026-03-24 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2026-03-17 Delisted — ODMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $214,900 ODMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $224,900 ODMLS
• 2005-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-02-25 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2004-11-30 Listed $95,500 ODMLS

Property tax history

-6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,631 · -33.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.