15127 Willowwater Dr · Conroe, TX 77316

$262,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,979 sqft · Land · 21 Days on market

Built 2026 $133/sqft · 55% above area $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Whitetail" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Chapel Run! The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $263k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($341/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $209,239 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.46%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,591
• List price: $262,990
• Delta: 55.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
523 Dalloway St	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,689 (-15%)	15mo	$238,425	$141	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-46,230
• Equity at exit: $39,213

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-59,064
• Equity at exit: $22,739

Cash invested: $73,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,092 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $982/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $262,990

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $103	+0% $28	+5% $-46	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-54	+0% $28	+5% $111	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $161	-0.5pp $95	base $28	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,748
• Closing costs: $7,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
613 Craven St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,610	$0.94	44d	1	0.06mi
15231 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1922	$1,760	$0.92	21d	1	0.09mi
15242 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1881	$1,780	$0.95	5d	1	0.10mi
15310 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,720	$1.22	2d	1	0.12mi
583 Firemoon St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,650	$1.17	21d	1	0.24mi
632 Levine Ct Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	2239	$2,275	$1.02	7d	1	0.47mi
425 McCaleb Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,702	$1.84	2d	20	0.51mi
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	44d	1	0.87mi
28752 Aloha Ln Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,986	$1.13	25d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Whitetail" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Chapel Run! The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

2. 2026-05-04
   price $262,990 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Whitetail" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Chapel Run! The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

3. 2026-04-16
   price $237,990 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Whitetail" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Chapel Run! The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

4. 2026-04-13
   price $254,990 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Whitetail" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Chapel Run! The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

5. 2026-04-13
   listed $262,990 Active 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection "Whitetail" Plan with Brick Elevation "J1" in Chapel Run! The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $982 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,813 · $401/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,830/yr (+$319/mo · 389.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,732
• − Property taxes: −$982
• − Insurance: −$1,315
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,009
• − Management: −$2,009
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,651
• Taxable loss: −$4,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,017
• After-tax cash flow: $1,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $262,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $237,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $254,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $262,990 HARMLS