915 S Pearl St · Centralia, WA 98531

$174,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,834 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1925 7,405 sqft lot $95/sqft · 54% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4-bedroom Craftsman fixer on level 60' x 120' lot with alley access. Priced $100,000 BELOW assessed value and current comparable sales. Strong potential for rehab project (add a bathroom upstairs in the large landing area at the top of the stairs), resale, rental hold, or new construction (buyer to verify zoning, permits, and allowable uses). Value-add opportunity for renovation, redevelopment, or replacement. Property requires substantial repairs, including foundation work and full interior/exterior updates. Home is currently livable with functioning electrical, heating & plumbing systems. Composition roof approximately 10 years old. Flat lot supports off-street parking, future garag

Key facts

• Alley access
• Functioning heating
• Level lot

Tags

• LEVEL LOT
• ALLEY ACCESS
• VALUE-ADD OPPORTUNITY
• FUNCTIONING ELECTRICAL
• FUNCTIONING HEATING
• FUNCTIONING PLUMBING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Site features include alley, curbs, paved streets, and sidewalks; Level topography
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; RV parking available; 4 uncovered parking spaces
• Security: Partially fenced; Security system
• Utilities: Electric and natural gas service; Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories; Main level entry; Two-story style
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Built on lot, detached; Pillar/post/pier foundation (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Deck; Partially fenced; Outbuildings; Shop; RV parking; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Gas available

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total — 1 on main level, 3 on upper level
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (includes bathtub and shower)
• Heating & cooling: Stove/free-standing heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Dining room; Security system
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.0% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#81 in WA, #1,497 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment F.
• Centralia School District (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $174,950

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.61%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,595
• List price: $174,950
• Delta: -33.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
724 S Pearl St	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,660 (-10%)	8mo	$430,000	$259	66
655 Salzer Creek Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,907 (+4%)	1mo	$433,990	$228	62
1396 Salzer Creek Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,907 (+4%)	6mo	$429,990	$225	54
1387 Salzer Creek Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,907 (+4%)	9mo	$424,990	$223	53
1467 Salzer Creek Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,907 (+4%)	8mo	$424,990	$223	52
667 Salzer Creek Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,586 (-14%)	3mo	$399,990	$252	44
1356 Salzer Creek Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,586 (-14%)	1mo	$404,000	$255	43
1410 Salzer Creek Dr	0.61mi	3/2.5	2,015 (+10%)	8mo	$436,990	$217	43
1355 Salzer Creek Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,586 (-14%)	4mo	$399,990	$252	42
1457 Salzer Creek Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	2,015 (+10%)	9mo	$439,990	$218	42
1432 Salzer Creek Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,586 (-14%)	6mo	$399,990	$252	38
1407 Salzer Creek Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,586 (-14%)	9mo	$414,990	$262	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-733
• Equity at exit: $26,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $34,978
• Equity at exit: $15,126

Cash invested: $48,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98531

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,056 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,410/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,508

Max offer price $174,950

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $532	-5% $483	+0% $433	+5% $384	+10% $334
Rent	-10% $271	-5% $352	+0% $433	+5% $515	+10% $596
Rate	-1.0pp $521	-0.5pp $478	base $433	+0.5pp $388	+1.0pp $342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,738
• Closing costs: $5,248
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
609 S Washington Ave Unit B Centralia, WA	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,300	$1.82	45d	1	0.41mi
914 B St Unit B Centralia, WA	3.0	3.0	1600	$2,375	$1.48	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $174,950 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $174,950 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $174,950 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $174,950 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-05-12
   price $219,950
6. 2026-05-01
   status Active
7. 2026-04-30
   listed $249,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,410 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,410 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,800
• − Property taxes: −$2,410
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,974
• − Management: −$1,974
• − Depreciation: −$5,089
• Taxable income: $2,553
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$613
• After-tax cash flow: $4,587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia School District
• NCES district ID: 5301140
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,851
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #7832
• State rank: #187 of 291 in WA

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1497

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centralia, WA
• County: Lewis County · 27,337 people
• City population: 27,337
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,337
• Household income: $63,406
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1000.0

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.98%
• Current HPI: 378.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Listed $174,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,410 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.