865 N Lapeer Rd · Orion, MI 48362

$399,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,369 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1960 1.00 ac lot $169/sqft · 9% below area Est $515k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake Orion ranch on a full 1-acre lot with direct, year-round views of Manitou Lake. This 4-bed, 2.5-bath home offers approx. 1,593 sq ft above grade plus a finished walkout basement, providing flexible living and entertaining space in a highly desirable setting. Enjoy two fireplaces - one on each level - and a bright sunroom that captures natural light and lake views. Full walkout basement which could be used as a mother-in-law suite. A 2-car attached garage with a covered carport in front adds convenience, extra parking, and protection from the elements. The finished walkout lower level offers additional living space with direct access to the expansive backyard. Two storage sheds remain with the property, ideal for tools, lake gear, or hobbies. Exterior features include a low-maintenance brick and vinyl siding and plenty of open space for outdoor enjoyment or future improvements. Large shed with electricity and a workshop and a 2nd small smaller shed. Whole house generator. A rare opportunity to own acreage with true lake views, and a functional ranch layout - just minutes from downtown Lake Orion, parks, and top-rated schools.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Across the street from Buffalo Wild Wings; pull into the Lake Orion Veterinary Hospital, stay to the right and follow the private drive; pass two homes and continue to the right; Cross street: Lapeer Rd and Indianwood

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built with finished above-grade and below-grade living areas
• Exterior features: Lake privileges (Manitou Lake); View; Shed(s); Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Natural gas heating; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement with walk-out access; Fireplace in the living room; 11 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $445 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $380k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $380k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $379,831 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.77%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $515,428
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -22.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
370 N Shore Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	2,460 (+4%)	14mo	$525,000	$213	61
34 N Andrews St	0.74mi	3/2.5	2,384 (+1%)	8mo	$395,000	$166	58
136 N Axford St	0.65mi	3/2.5	2,303 (-3%)	13mo	$375,000	$163	55
936 Wildbrook Ln	0.46mi	3/2.5	2,019 (-15%)	1mo	$414,900	$205	53
936 Wildbrook Ln	0.46mi	3/2.5	2,019 (-15%)	1mo	$414,900	$205	53
311 Teelin Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,201 (-7%)	5mo	$316,000	$144	50
912 Wildbrook Ln	0.45mi	3/2.5	2,152 (-9%)	20mo	$505,000	$235	47
83 N Axford St	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,161 (-9%)	18mo	$155,000	$72	37
83 N Andrews St	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,221 (-6%)	19mo	$435,000	$196	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-36,549
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $4,358
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48362

• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,507/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$798
• Net cashflow: $445

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,235

Max offer price $399,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $671	-5% $558	+0% $445	+5% $331	+10% $218
Rent	-10% $145	-5% $295	+0% $445	+5% $595	+10% $745
Rate	-1.0pp $646	-0.5pp $546	base $445	+0.5pp $341	+1.0pp $236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
391 Shady Oaks St Lake Orion, MI	3.0	2.0	1920	$2,995	$1.56	2d	1	1.30mi
391 Shady Oaks St Lake Orion, MI	3.0	2.0	1920	$2,995	$1.56	10d	1	1.30mi
442 Mystic Cove Ln Lake Orion, MI	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1989	$5,350	$2.69	2d	4	1.30mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $399,900 Active 35 DOM

   Show marketing remark (1147 chars)

   Lake Orion ranch on a full 1-acre lot with direct, year-round views of Manitou Lake. This 4-bed, 2.5-bath home offers approx. 1,593 sq ft above grade plus a finished walkout basement, providing flexible living and entertaining space in a highly desirable setting. Enjoy two fireplaces - one on each level - and a bright sunroom that captures natural light and lake views. Full walkout basement which could be used as a mother-in-law suite. A 2-car attached garage with a covered carport in front adds convenience, extra parking, and protection from the elements. The finished walkout lower level offers additional living space with direct access to the expansive backyard. Two storage sheds remain with the property, ideal for tools, lake gear, or hobbies. Exterior features include a low-maintenance brick and vinyl siding and plenty of open space for outdoor enjoyment or future improvements. Large shed with electricity and a workshop and a 2nd small smaller shed. Whole house generator. A rare opportunity to own acreage with true lake views, and a functional ranch layout - just minutes from downtown Lake Orion, parks, and top-rated schools.

5. 2026-06-08
   status $399,900 Pending 34 DOM

   Show marketing remark (1147 chars)

   Lake Orion ranch on a full 1-acre lot with direct, year-round views of Manitou Lake. This 4-bed, 2.5-bath home offers approx. 1,593 sq ft above grade plus a finished walkout basement, providing flexible living and entertaining space in a highly desirable setting. Enjoy two fireplaces - one on each level - and a bright sunroom that captures natural light and lake views. Full walkout basement which could be used as a mother-in-law suite. A 2-car attached garage with a covered carport in front adds convenience, extra parking, and protection from the elements. The finished walkout lower level offers additional living space with direct access to the expansive backyard. Two storage sheds remain with the property, ideal for tools, lake gear, or hobbies. Exterior features include a low-maintenance brick and vinyl siding and plenty of open space for outdoor enjoyment or future improvements. Large shed with electricity and a workshop and a 2nd small smaller shed. Whole house generator. A rare opportunity to own acreage with true lake views, and a functional ranch layout - just minutes from downtown Lake Orion, parks, and top-rated schools.

6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,900 Active Under Contract 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $399,900 Active Under Contract 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $399,900 Active Under Contract 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $399,900 Active Under Contract 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active Under Contract 28 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    status $399,900 Active Under Contract 27 DOM

    Show marketing remark (1147 chars)

    Lake Orion ranch on a full 1-acre lot with direct, year-round views of Manitou Lake. This 4-bed, 2.5-bath home offers approx. 1,593 sq ft above grade plus a finished walkout basement, providing flexible living and entertaining space in a highly desirable setting. Enjoy two fireplaces - one on each level - and a bright sunroom that captures natural light and lake views. Full walkout basement which could be used as a mother-in-law suite. A 2-car attached garage with a covered carport in front adds convenience, extra parking, and protection from the elements. The finished walkout lower level offers additional living space with direct access to the expansive backyard. Two storage sheds remain with the property, ideal for tools, lake gear, or hobbies. Exterior features include a low-maintenance brick and vinyl siding and plenty of open space for outdoor enjoyment or future improvements. Large shed with electricity and a workshop and a 2nd small smaller shed. Whole house generator. A rare opportunity to own acreage with true lake views, and a functional ranch layout - just minutes from downtown Lake Orion, parks, and top-rated schools.

12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 27 DOM

    Show marketing remark (1147 chars)

    Lake Orion ranch on a full 1-acre lot with direct, year-round views of Manitou Lake. This 4-bed, 2.5-bath home offers approx. 1,593 sq ft above grade plus a finished walkout basement, providing flexible living and entertaining space in a highly desirable setting. Enjoy two fireplaces - one on each level - and a bright sunroom that captures natural light and lake views. Full walkout basement which could be used as a mother-in-law suite. A 2-car attached garage with a covered carport in front adds convenience, extra parking, and protection from the elements. The finished walkout lower level offers additional living space with direct access to the expansive backyard. Two storage sheds remain with the property, ideal for tools, lake gear, or hobbies. Exterior features include a low-maintenance brick and vinyl siding and plenty of open space for outdoor enjoyment or future improvements. Large shed with electricity and a workshop and a 2nd small smaller shed. Whole house generator. A rare opportunity to own acreage with true lake views, and a functional ranch layout - just minutes from downtown Lake Orion, parks, and top-rated schools.

13. 2026-05-17
    status Pending 1147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1147 chars)

    Lake Orion ranch on a full 1-acre lot with direct, year-round views of Manitou Lake. This 4-bed, 2.5-bath home offers approx. 1,593 sq ft above grade plus a finished walkout basement, providing flexible living and entertaining space in a highly desirable setting. Enjoy two fireplaces - one on each level - and a bright sunroom that captures natural light and lake views. Full walkout basement which could be used as a mother-in-law suite. A 2-car attached garage with a covered carport in front adds convenience, extra parking, and protection from the elements. The finished walkout lower level offers additional living space with direct access to the expansive backyard. Two storage sheds remain with the property, ideal for tools, lake gear, or hobbies. Exterior features include a low-maintenance brick and vinyl siding and plenty of open space for outdoor enjoyment or future improvements. Large shed with electricity and a workshop and a 2nd small smaller shed. Whole house generator. A rare opportunity to own acreage with true lake views, and a functional ranch layout - just minutes from downtown Lake Orion, parks, and top-rated schools.

14. 2026-05-17
    status Pending 1159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1147 chars)

    Lake Orion ranch on a full 1-acre lot with direct, year-round views of Manitou Lake. This 4-bed, 2.5-bath home offers approx. 1,593 sq ft above grade plus a finished walkout basement, providing flexible living and entertaining space in a highly desirable setting. Enjoy two fireplaces - one on each level - and a bright sunroom that captures natural light and lake views. Full walkout basement which could be used as a mother-in-law suite. A 2-car attached garage with a covered carport in front adds convenience, extra parking, and protection from the elements. The finished walkout lower level offers additional living space with direct access to the expansive backyard. Two storage sheds remain with the property, ideal for tools, lake gear, or hobbies. Exterior features include a low-maintenance brick and vinyl siding and plenty of open space for outdoor enjoyment or future improvements. Large shed with electricity and a workshop and a 2nd small smaller shed. Whole house generator. A rare opportunity to own acreage with true lake views, and a functional ranch layout - just minutes from downtown Lake Orion, parks, and top-rated schools.

15. 2026-05-02
    listed $399,900 Active 1147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1147 chars)

    Lake Orion ranch on a full 1-acre lot with direct, year-round views of Manitou Lake. This 4-bed, 2.5-bath home offers approx. 1,593 sq ft above grade plus a finished walkout basement, providing flexible living and entertaining space in a highly desirable setting. Enjoy two fireplaces - one on each level - and a bright sunroom that captures natural light and lake views. Full walkout basement which could be used as a mother-in-law suite. A 2-car attached garage with a covered carport in front adds convenience, extra parking, and protection from the elements. The finished walkout lower level offers additional living space with direct access to the expansive backyard. Two storage sheds remain with the property, ideal for tools, lake gear, or hobbies. Exterior features include a low-maintenance brick and vinyl siding and plenty of open space for outdoor enjoyment or future improvements. Large shed with electricity and a workshop and a 2nd small smaller shed. Whole house generator. A rare opportunity to own acreage with true lake views, and a functional ranch layout - just minutes from downtown Lake Orion, parks, and top-rated schools.

16. 2026-05-02
    listed $399,900 Active 1159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1147 chars)

    Lake Orion ranch on a full 1-acre lot with direct, year-round views of Manitou Lake. This 4-bed, 2.5-bath home offers approx. 1,593 sq ft above grade plus a finished walkout basement, providing flexible living and entertaining space in a highly desirable setting. Enjoy two fireplaces - one on each level - and a bright sunroom that captures natural light and lake views. Full walkout basement which could be used as a mother-in-law suite. A 2-car attached garage with a covered carport in front adds convenience, extra parking, and protection from the elements. The finished walkout lower level offers additional living space with direct access to the expansive backyard. Two storage sheds remain with the property, ideal for tools, lake gear, or hobbies. Exterior features include a low-maintenance brick and vinyl siding and plenty of open space for outdoor enjoyment or future improvements. Large shed with electricity and a workshop and a 2nd small smaller shed. Whole house generator. A rare opportunity to own acreage with true lake views, and a functional ranch layout - just minutes from downtown Lake Orion, parks, and top-rated schools.

17. 2026-05-01
    historical $399,900 1147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1147 chars)

    Lake Orion ranch on a full 1-acre lot with direct, year-round views of Manitou Lake. This 4-bed, 2.5-bath home offers approx. 1,593 sq ft above grade plus a finished walkout basement, providing flexible living and entertaining space in a highly desirable setting. Enjoy two fireplaces - one on each level - and a bright sunroom that captures natural light and lake views. Full walkout basement which could be used as a mother-in-law suite. A 2-car attached garage with a covered carport in front adds convenience, extra parking, and protection from the elements. The finished walkout lower level offers additional living space with direct access to the expansive backyard. Two storage sheds remain with the property, ideal for tools, lake gear, or hobbies. Exterior features include a low-maintenance brick and vinyl siding and plenty of open space for outdoor enjoyment or future improvements. Large shed with electricity and a workshop and a 2nd small smaller shed. Whole house generator. A rare opportunity to own acreage with true lake views, and a functional ranch layout - just minutes from downtown Lake Orion, parks, and top-rated schools.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,507 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,833 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,326/yr (+$110/mo · 37.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$3,507
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,646
• − Management: −$3,646
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$1,253
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$301
• After-tax cash flow: $5,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Orion

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,401
• Population (ZIP): 14,746

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.96%
• Current HPI: 182.3653
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-15 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-06-08 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-08 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-31 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-31 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-20 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-20 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-17 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-02 Listed $399,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $399,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-01 Coming Soon $399,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,507 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.