16330 Hill Country Ct · Grangerland, TX 77302

$177,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 116 Days on market

Built 2002 0.35 ac lot $113/sqft · 10% above area Est $161k · 10% over $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor-friendly opportunity on an oversized corner lot in established Lone Star Ranch, delivering fresh updates, quiet surroundings & long-term upside. Step inside to new flooring, new blinds & fresh paint throughout the entire home for a clean, move-in ready feel. Enjoy an expansive & open living area that flows into the dining room. From there find a well equipped kitchen w/ center island and cozy breakfast nook. This home backs to open space w/ no buildings behind, so you get peaceful views & extra breathing room. Added peace of mind comes w/ a nearby community fire station, plus the budget win of NO MUD tax & an approx 1.6% tax rate. Ideal for buyers wanting value now or investors seeking strong rental appeal in a location that stays in demand, close to Hwy 242 w/ quick access to I-45, I-69 & Grand Pkwy for easy commutes to The Woodlands & Conroe shopping, dining & everyday conveniences. HOA amenities include park/green space & picnic area, plus common-area maintenance.

Key facts

• Oversized corner lot
• Fresh paint
• New flooring

Tags

• OVERSIZED CORNER LOT
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW BLINDS
• FRESH PAINT
• EXPANSIVE OPEN LIVING AREA
• WELL EQUIPPED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $177k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $452 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $177k).
• Recommended offer: $161k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask is 11319% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,070 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.95%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,413
• List price: $177,000
• Delta: 9.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16287 Wrangler Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	1mo	$179,991	$115	84
16117 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	3mo	$119,900	$76	77
16385 Red Tail Hawk Ct	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (0%)	3mo	$160,000	$102	77
16445 Kyle Reid Ct	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (0%)	6mo	$199,000	$127	73
16547 Leafy Meadow Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	2mo	$185,000	$118	72
16297 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$112	62
16524 Desert Star Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	4mo	$155,000	$115	62
16344 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (0%)	0mo	$219,000	$140	61
16105 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	3mo	$160,000	$119	51
16535 Bunny Hill Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	1mo	$155,000	$115	51
16316 Lone Corral Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	1mo	$179,999	$134	47
16327 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	2mo	$189,000	$141	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $848
• Equity at exit: $26,391

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $40,831
• Equity at exit: $15,304

Cash invested: $49,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$928
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,868/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $452

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $177,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $552	-5% $502	+0% $452	+5% $402	+10% $352
Rent	-10% $279	-5% $366	+0% $452	+5% $539	+10% $625
Rate	-1.0pp $541	-0.5pp $497	base $452	+0.5pp $406	+1.0pp $360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,250
• Closing costs: $5,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	44d	1	0.42mi
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	25d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 1026-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1026 chars)

   Investor-friendly opportunity on an oversized corner lot in established Lone Star Ranch, delivering fresh updates, quiet surroundings & long-term upside. Step inside to new flooring, new blinds & fresh paint throughout the entire home for a clean, move-in ready feel. Enjoy an expansive & open living area that flows into the dining room. From there find a well equipped kitchen w/ center island and cozy breakfast nook. This home backs to open space w/ no buildings behind, so you get peaceful views & extra breathing room. Added peace of mind comes w/ a nearby community fire station, plus the budget win of NO MUD tax & an approx 1.6% tax rate. Ideal for buyers wanting value now or investors seeking strong rental appeal in a location that stays in demand, close to Hwy 242 w/ quick access to I-45, I-69 & Grand Pkwy for easy commutes to The Woodlands & Conroe shopping, dining & everyday conveniences. HOA amenities include park/green space & picnic area, plus common-area maintenance.

2. 2026-05-13
   historical $1,550
3. 2026-04-21
   listed $1,550
4. 2026-03-23
   price $177,000 1026-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1026 chars)

   Investor-friendly opportunity on an oversized corner lot in established Lone Star Ranch, delivering fresh updates, quiet surroundings & long-term upside. Step inside to new flooring, new blinds & fresh paint throughout the entire home for a clean, move-in ready feel. Enjoy an expansive & open living area that flows into the dining room. From there find a well equipped kitchen w/ center island and cozy breakfast nook. This home backs to open space w/ no buildings behind, so you get peaceful views & extra breathing room. Added peace of mind comes w/ a nearby community fire station, plus the budget win of NO MUD tax & an approx 1.6% tax rate. Ideal for buyers wanting value now or investors seeking strong rental appeal in a location that stays in demand, close to Hwy 242 w/ quick access to I-45, I-69 & Grand Pkwy for easy commutes to The Woodlands & Conroe shopping, dining & everyday conveniences. HOA amenities include park/green space & picnic area, plus common-area maintenance.

5. 2026-03-05
   price $184,500 1026-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1026 chars)

   Investor-friendly opportunity on an oversized corner lot in established Lone Star Ranch, delivering fresh updates, quiet surroundings & long-term upside. Step inside to new flooring, new blinds & fresh paint throughout the entire home for a clean, move-in ready feel. Enjoy an expansive & open living area that flows into the dining room. From there find a well equipped kitchen w/ center island and cozy breakfast nook. This home backs to open space w/ no buildings behind, so you get peaceful views & extra breathing room. Added peace of mind comes w/ a nearby community fire station, plus the budget win of NO MUD tax & an approx 1.6% tax rate. Ideal for buyers wanting value now or investors seeking strong rental appeal in a location that stays in demand, close to Hwy 242 w/ quick access to I-45, I-69 & Grand Pkwy for easy commutes to The Woodlands & Conroe shopping, dining & everyday conveniences. HOA amenities include park/green space & picnic area, plus common-area maintenance.

6. 2026-01-28
   listed $189,500 Active 1026-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1026 chars)

   Investor-friendly opportunity on an oversized corner lot in established Lone Star Ranch, delivering fresh updates, quiet surroundings & long-term upside. Step inside to new flooring, new blinds & fresh paint throughout the entire home for a clean, move-in ready feel. Enjoy an expansive & open living area that flows into the dining room. From there find a well equipped kitchen w/ center island and cozy breakfast nook. This home backs to open space w/ no buildings behind, so you get peaceful views & extra breathing room. Added peace of mind comes w/ a nearby community fire station, plus the budget win of NO MUD tax & an approx 1.6% tax rate. Ideal for buyers wanting value now or investors seeking strong rental appeal in a location that stays in demand, close to Hwy 242 w/ quick access to I-45, I-69 & Grand Pkwy for easy commutes to The Woodlands & Conroe shopping, dining & everyday conveniences. HOA amenities include park/green space & picnic area, plus common-area maintenance.

7. 2026-01-08
   soldstatus
8. 2012-12-21
   historical 490-char remark

   Show marketing remark (490 chars)

   Clean, Well Kept 3/2/2 Home w/ Split Floor Plan on Oversized Cul-De-Sac Lot w/ Wooded Area to side/rear. Updates: New Roof July 2012, New Flooring in Kitchen, Bathrooms, Laundry & Hallway. All New Light Fixtures & Ceiling Fans Throughout. Water Heater Upgraded 2012. Refrigerator, Dishwasher, & Stove stay! Master Bath has Garden Tub w/ Separate Shower & upgraded Double Sinks in 2012. Kitchen has Island & Breakfast Area. Dining w/ Open Concept to Living Area.

9. 2012-12-21
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (490 chars)

   Clean, Well Kept 3/2/2 Home w/ Split Floor Plan on Oversized Cul-De-Sac Lot w/ Wooded Area to side/rear. Updates: New Roof July 2012, New Flooring in Kitchen, Bathrooms, Laundry & Hallway. All New Light Fixtures & Ceiling Fans Throughout. Water Heater Upgraded 2012. Refrigerator, Dishwasher, & Stove stay! Master Bath has Garden Tub w/ Separate Shower & upgraded Double Sinks in 2012. Kitchen has Island & Breakfast Area. Dining w/ Open Concept to Living Area.

10. 2012-12-19
    soldstatus Sold 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Clean, Well Kept 3/2/2 Home w/ Split Floor Plan on Oversized Cul-De-Sac Lot w/ Wooded Area to side/rear. Updates: New Roof July 2012, New Flooring in Kitchen, Bathrooms, Laundry & Hallway. All New Light Fixtures & Ceiling Fans Throughout. Water Heater Upgraded 2012. Refrigerator, Dishwasher, & Stove stay! Master Bath has Garden Tub w/ Separate Shower & upgraded Double Sinks in 2012. Kitchen has Island & Breakfast Area. Dining w/ Open Concept to Living Area.

11. 2012-12-13
    status Active 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Clean, Well Kept 3/2/2 Home w/ Split Floor Plan on Oversized Cul-De-Sac Lot w/ Wooded Area to side/rear. Updates: New Roof July 2012, New Flooring in Kitchen, Bathrooms, Laundry & Hallway. All New Light Fixtures & Ceiling Fans Throughout. Water Heater Upgraded 2012. Refrigerator, Dishwasher, & Stove stay! Master Bath has Garden Tub w/ Separate Shower & upgraded Double Sinks in 2012. Kitchen has Island & Breakfast Area. Dining w/ Open Concept to Living Area.

12. 2012-10-15
    historical 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Clean, Well Kept 3/2/2 Home w/ Split Floor Plan on Oversized Cul-De-Sac Lot w/ Wooded Area to side/rear. Updates: New Roof July 2012, New Flooring in Kitchen, Bathrooms, Laundry & Hallway. All New Light Fixtures & Ceiling Fans Throughout. Water Heater Upgraded 2012. Refrigerator, Dishwasher, & Stove stay! Master Bath has Garden Tub w/ Separate Shower & upgraded Double Sinks in 2012. Kitchen has Island & Breakfast Area. Dining w/ Open Concept to Living Area.

13. 2012-05-02
    listed $59,900 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Clean, Well Kept 3/2/2 Home w/ Split Floor Plan on Oversized Cul-De-Sac Lot w/ Wooded Area to side/rear. Updates: New Roof July 2012, New Flooring in Kitchen, Bathrooms, Laundry & Hallway. All New Light Fixtures & Ceiling Fans Throughout. Water Heater Upgraded 2012. Refrigerator, Dishwasher, & Stove stay! Master Bath has Garden Tub w/ Separate Shower & upgraded Double Sinks in 2012. Kitchen has Island & Breakfast Area. Dining w/ Open Concept to Living Area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,868 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,239 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: +$371/yr (+$31/mo · 13.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,915
• − Property taxes: −$2,868
• − Insurance: −$885
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,102
• − Management: −$2,102
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$5,149
• Taxable income: $2,815
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$676
• After-tax cash flow: $4,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-97.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Rental Removed $1,550 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed for Rent $1,550 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $177,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $184,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $189,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-12-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-12-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-12-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-12-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2012-10-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-05-02 Listed $59,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,868 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.