243 Kirk · Madison, MI 49221

$73,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Manufactured · 158 Days on market

Built 1999

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice move-in ready home in Sterling Estates! This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, laundry room, new flooring, large rooms, shed and patio. Nice location close to shopping and just a few minutes from downtown. Plenty of parking and guest parking close by. Nice community in Madison School District, trash pick up, play grounds, utilities underground, city water/sewer, large Community building and on-site management staff. Lot rent $465.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Shed
• Laundry room

Tags

• MOVE-IN READY
• NEW FLOORING
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• LARGE ROOMS
• SHED
• PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Ranch-style residential; Built in 1999
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Shed(s) on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (14 x 13); Bedroom 2 (13 x 10); Bedroom 3 (10 x 13)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; Basement (other type)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (5 x 8)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $687 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison School District (Lenawee) (town): math 34% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #195 of 540 in MI (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $505 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $73k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.36%
• DSCR: 2.80
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $31,981
• Equity at exit: $10,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.13×
• Total profit: $84,324
• Equity at exit: $6,312

Cash invested: $20,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49221

• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,509 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$383
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$91 /mo · $1,095/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $687

Break-even live

Break-even rent $639

Max offer price $73,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $738	-5% $713	+0% $687	+5% $662	+10% $637
Rent	-10% $568	-5% $628	+0% $687	+5% $747	+10% $807
Rate	-1.0pp $724	-0.5pp $706	base $687	+0.5pp $669	+1.0pp $649

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,250
• Closing costs: $2,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $73,000 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $73,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $73,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $73,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $73,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $73,000 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $73,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $73,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $73,000 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $73,000 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $73,000 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $73,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $73,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $73,000 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $73,000 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $73,000 Active 137 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $73,000 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Nice move-in ready home in Sterling Estates! This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, laundry room, new flooring, large rooms, shed and patio. Nice location close to shopping and just a few minutes from downtown. Plenty of parking and guest parking close by. Nice community in Madison School District, trash pick up, play grounds, utilities underground, city water/sewer, large Community building and on-site management staff. Lot rent $465.

18. 2026-04-22
    price $73,000 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Nice move-in ready home in Sterling Estates! This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, laundry room, new flooring, large rooms, shed and patio. Nice location close to shopping and just a few minutes from downtown. Plenty of parking and guest parking close by. Nice community in Madison School District, trash pick up, play grounds, utilities underground, city water/sewer, large Community building and on-site management staff. Lot rent $465.

19. 2026-04-22
    price $73,000

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Nice move-in ready home in Sterling Estates! This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, laundry room, new flooring, large rooms, shed and patio. Nice location close to shopping and just a few minutes from downtown. Plenty of parking and guest parking close by. Nice community in Madison School District, trash pick up, play grounds, utilities underground, city water/sewer, large Community building and on-site management staff. Lot rent $465.

20. 2026-01-13
    listed $74,900 Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Nice move-in ready home in Sterling Estates! This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, laundry room, new flooring, large rooms, shed and patio. Nice location close to shopping and just a few minutes from downtown. Plenty of parking and guest parking close by. Nice community in Madison School District, trash pick up, play grounds, utilities underground, city water/sewer, large Community building and on-site management staff. Lot rent $465.

21. 2026-01-12
    listed $74,900 Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Nice move-in ready home in Sterling Estates! This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, laundry room, new flooring, large rooms, shed and patio. Nice location close to shopping and just a few minutes from downtown. Plenty of parking and guest parking close by. Nice community in Madison School District, trash pick up, play grounds, utilities underground, city water/sewer, large Community building and on-site management staff. Lot rent $465.

22. 2026-01-12
    listed $74,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Nice move-in ready home in Sterling Estates! This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, laundry room, new flooring, large rooms, shed and patio. Nice location close to shopping and just a few minutes from downtown. Plenty of parking and guest parking close by. Nice community in Madison School District, trash pick up, play grounds, utilities underground, city water/sewer, large Community building and on-site management staff. Lot rent $465.

23. 2025-12-27
    historical
24. 2025-12-26
    historical
25. 2025-10-03
    price $74,900
26. 2025-10-03
    price $74,900
27. 2025-10-03
    price $74,900
28. 2025-09-10
    price $79,900
29. 2025-09-09
    price $79,900
30. 2025-09-09
    price $79,900
31. 2025-08-26
    listed $85,000 Active
32. 2025-08-26
    listed $85,000 Active
33. 2022-07-07
    soldstatus $34,000 Sold
34. 2022-07-07
    soldstatus $34,000 Closed
35. 2022-07-07
    soldstatus $34,000
36. 2022-04-23
    status Pending
37. 2022-04-23
    status Pending
38. 2022-04-19
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
39. 2022-04-19
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
40. 2022-04-06
    listed $34,900 Active
41. 2022-04-06
    listed $34,900 Active
42. 2022-04-06
    listed $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,089
• − Property taxes: −$1,095
• − Insurance: −$365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,448
• − Management: −$1,448
• − Depreciation: −$2,124
• Taxable income: $7,536
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,809
• After-tax cash flow: $6,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison School District (Lenawee)
• NCES district ID: 2622320
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,961
• Composite: 35.35/100
• National rank: #4959
• State rank: #195 of 540 in MI

Livability — Madison

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 41,041

Population outlook (Lenawee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,497 people
• By 2030: 92,722 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 85,641 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 77,971 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 60,043 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 41,468 · -56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenawee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.8% · R 60.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.64%
• Current HPI: 237.3796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+109.2% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $73,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $73,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $73,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $74,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-12 Listed $74,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $74,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-27 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-26 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $74,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $74,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $74,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $79,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-08-26 Listed $85,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-08-26 Listed $85,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-07-07 Sold (MLS) $34,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-07-07 Sold (MLS) $34,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-07-07 Sold (MLS) $34,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-04-23 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-23 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-04-19 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-19 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2022-04-06 Listed $34,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-06 Listed $34,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-06 Listed $34,900 REALCOMP