2001 Twin Oaks Dr · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 672 Days on market

Built 1983 10,018 sqft lot $189/sqft · 6% below area Est $187k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located just minutes from the Beaches, this property offers exceptional value with its oversized corner lot—providing rare space, privacy, and strong potential for future development or improvement. The 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on a large enclosed backyard, ideal for outdoor living, expansion, storage, or future building opportunities. Whether you plan to renovate, use as a long-term rental, or build new, the lot size and location are the true highlights of this property. The home features a new HVAC system, gas available, and a septic tank on site. The property is now vacant, offering immediate access and flexibility for buyers, investors, or builders. Conveniently located near beaches, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this location supports a variety of uses from income-producing rental to primary residence or redevelopment. Buyer to verify all measurements and information.

Key facts

• New hvac
• Large backyard space
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LARGE BACKYARD SPACE
• NEW HVAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 672 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $175k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 672 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.96%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,678
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -6.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2437 Valley Oak Ct	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	966 (+4%)	20mo	$90,000	$93	62
1219 Thomas Dr #106	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	928 (+0%)	22mo	$228,000	$246	59
1219 Thomas Dr #258	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	844 (-9%)	18mo	$230,000	$273	48
1219 Thomas Dr #10	0.36mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,032 (+12%)	11mo	$190,000	$184	48
1219 Thomas Dr #131	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,041 (+13%)	14mo	$253,900	$244	46
1219 Thomas Dr #256	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,022 (+11%)	20mo	$240,000	$235	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,814
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $37,791
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1022
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,017 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,384/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2103 Bent Oak Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	21d	1	0.08mi
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	13d	1	0.26mi
447 Water Oak Cir Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	21d	1	0.42mi
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	21d	1	0.59mi
6427 Sunset Ave Unit 2 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,225	$1.36	21d	1	0.95mi
7205 Thomas Dr Unit 1354970P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,227	$3.09	21d	1	1.05mi
5931 Pinetree Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	21d	1	1.16mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,355	$2.31	13d	41	1.27mi
5710 Sunset Ave Unit 1523314P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1087	$8,246	$7.59	21d	1	1.34mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	13d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 672 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 671 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 670 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 669 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 668 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 666 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 665 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 663 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 662 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,900 Active 661 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 660 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 657 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 656 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 655 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 654 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 653 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 652 DOM
18. 2026-02-17
    status Active 915-char remark

    Show marketing remark (915 chars)

    Located just minutes from the Beaches, this property offers exceptional value with its oversized corner lot—providing rare space, privacy, and strong potential for future development or improvement. The 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on a large enclosed backyard, ideal for outdoor living, expansion, storage, or future building opportunities. Whether you plan to renovate, use as a long-term rental, or build new, the lot size and location are the true highlights of this property. The home features a new HVAC system, gas available, and a septic tank on site. The property is now vacant, offering immediate access and flexibility for buyers, investors, or builders. Conveniently located near beaches, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this location supports a variety of uses from income-producing rental to primary residence or redevelopment. Buyer to verify all measurements and information.

19. 2026-02-16
    price $174,900 915-char remark

    Show marketing remark (915 chars)

    Located just minutes from the Beaches, this property offers exceptional value with its oversized corner lot—providing rare space, privacy, and strong potential for future development or improvement. The 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on a large enclosed backyard, ideal for outdoor living, expansion, storage, or future building opportunities. Whether you plan to renovate, use as a long-term rental, or build new, the lot size and location are the true highlights of this property. The home features a new HVAC system, gas available, and a septic tank on site. The property is now vacant, offering immediate access and flexibility for buyers, investors, or builders. Conveniently located near beaches, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this location supports a variety of uses from income-producing rental to primary residence or redevelopment. Buyer to verify all measurements and information.

20. 2026-01-29
    status Pending 915-char remark

    Show marketing remark (915 chars)

    Located just minutes from the Beaches, this property offers exceptional value with its oversized corner lot—providing rare space, privacy, and strong potential for future development or improvement. The 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on a large enclosed backyard, ideal for outdoor living, expansion, storage, or future building opportunities. Whether you plan to renovate, use as a long-term rental, or build new, the lot size and location are the true highlights of this property. The home features a new HVAC system, gas available, and a septic tank on site. The property is now vacant, offering immediate access and flexibility for buyers, investors, or builders. Conveniently located near beaches, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this location supports a variety of uses from income-producing rental to primary residence or redevelopment. Buyer to verify all measurements and information.

21. 2025-11-19
    status Active 915-char remark

    Show marketing remark (915 chars)

    Located just minutes from the Beaches, this property offers exceptional value with its oversized corner lot—providing rare space, privacy, and strong potential for future development or improvement. The 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on a large enclosed backyard, ideal for outdoor living, expansion, storage, or future building opportunities. Whether you plan to renovate, use as a long-term rental, or build new, the lot size and location are the true highlights of this property. The home features a new HVAC system, gas available, and a septic tank on site. The property is now vacant, offering immediate access and flexibility for buyers, investors, or builders. Conveniently located near beaches, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this location supports a variety of uses from income-producing rental to primary residence or redevelopment. Buyer to verify all measurements and information.

22. 2024-12-01
    status Active 915-char remark

    Show marketing remark (915 chars)

    Located just minutes from the Beaches, this property offers exceptional value with its oversized corner lot—providing rare space, privacy, and strong potential for future development or improvement. The 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on a large enclosed backyard, ideal for outdoor living, expansion, storage, or future building opportunities. Whether you plan to renovate, use as a long-term rental, or build new, the lot size and location are the true highlights of this property. The home features a new HVAC system, gas available, and a septic tank on site. The property is now vacant, offering immediate access and flexibility for buyers, investors, or builders. Conveniently located near beaches, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this location supports a variety of uses from income-producing rental to primary residence or redevelopment. Buyer to verify all measurements and information.

23. 2024-11-20
    price $165,000 915-char remark

    Show marketing remark (915 chars)

    Located just minutes from the Beaches, this property offers exceptional value with its oversized corner lot—providing rare space, privacy, and strong potential for future development or improvement. The 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on a large enclosed backyard, ideal for outdoor living, expansion, storage, or future building opportunities. Whether you plan to renovate, use as a long-term rental, or build new, the lot size and location are the true highlights of this property. The home features a new HVAC system, gas available, and a septic tank on site. The property is now vacant, offering immediate access and flexibility for buyers, investors, or builders. Conveniently located near beaches, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this location supports a variety of uses from income-producing rental to primary residence or redevelopment. Buyer to verify all measurements and information.

24. 2024-09-25
    price $189,000 915-char remark

    Show marketing remark (915 chars)

    Located just minutes from the Beaches, this property offers exceptional value with its oversized corner lot—providing rare space, privacy, and strong potential for future development or improvement. The 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on a large enclosed backyard, ideal for outdoor living, expansion, storage, or future building opportunities. Whether you plan to renovate, use as a long-term rental, or build new, the lot size and location are the true highlights of this property. The home features a new HVAC system, gas available, and a septic tank on site. The property is now vacant, offering immediate access and flexibility for buyers, investors, or builders. Conveniently located near beaches, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this location supports a variety of uses from income-producing rental to primary residence or redevelopment. Buyer to verify all measurements and information.

25. 2024-07-29
    listed $199,000 Active 915-char remark

    Show marketing remark (915 chars)

    Located just minutes from the Beaches, this property offers exceptional value with its oversized corner lot—providing rare space, privacy, and strong potential for future development or improvement. The 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on a large enclosed backyard, ideal for outdoor living, expansion, storage, or future building opportunities. Whether you plan to renovate, use as a long-term rental, or build new, the lot size and location are the true highlights of this property. The home features a new HVAC system, gas available, and a septic tank on site. The property is now vacant, offering immediate access and flexibility for buyers, investors, or builders. Conveniently located near beaches, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this location supports a variety of uses from income-producing rental to primary residence or redevelopment. Buyer to verify all measurements and information.

26. 2021-12-14
    historical
27. 2018-08-03
    soldstatus $93,571
28. 2018-07-30
    soldstatus $95,000
29. 2018-05-17
    listed $99,900
30. 2016-07-18
    soldstatus $62,500
31. 2016-07-15
    soldstatus $62,500
32. 2016-03-21
    listed $75,000
33. 2005-10-21
    listed $125,000
34. 2003-09-29
    soldstatus $45,000
35. 2003-08-12
    soldstatus $45,000
36. 2003-05-08
    listed $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,384 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$67/yr (+$6/mo · 4.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$1,384
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,937
• − Management: −$1,937
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $3,191
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$766
• After-tax cash flow: $5,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+218.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Relisted — ECAR
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $174,900 ECAR
• 2026-01-29 Pending — ECAR
• 2025-11-19 Relisted — ECAR
• 2024-12-01 Relisted — ECAR
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $165,000 ECAR
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $189,000 ECAR
• 2024-07-29 Listed $199,000 ECAR
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2018-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $93,571 Public Records
• 2018-07-30 Sold (MLS) $95,000 CPARMLS
• 2018-05-17 Listed $99,900 CPARMLS
• 2016-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 2016-07-15 Sold (MLS) $62,500 CPARMLS
• 2016-03-21 Listed $75,000 CPARMLS
• 2005-10-21 Listed $125,000 CPARMLS
• 2003-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-12 Sold (MLS) $45,000 CPARMLS
• 2003-05-08 Listed $54,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,384 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.