Elston Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$363,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,260 sqft · SingleFamily · 211 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This all-concrete block constructed, two story, two-car garage home includes a kitchen overlooking the living and dining area, a powder bath and two storage closets on the first floor. Upstairs, the spacious Bedroom 1 includes a big walk-in closet and Bathroom 1 with linen closet. Three other bedrooms share a second bathroom. The loft at the top of the stairs provides extra space for work and play, as well as an additional closet for more storage space. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, microwave, washer, and dryer.

Key facts

• Linen closet
• Big walk-in closet
• Two storage closets

Tags

• TWO STORAGE CLOSETS
• BIG WALK-IN CLOSET
• LINEN CLOSET
• LOFT AT THE TOP OF STAIRS
• ADDITIONAL CLOSET FOR STORAGE
• REFRIGERATOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $363,990; Address: 10529 Grain Silo Trl, Parrish, FL 34219; Status: Active

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family new construction (Elston plan)
• Exterior features: 2260 living area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: New construction plan (Elston)

🏗️ New construction. The $363,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $436,180.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $364k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-533 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $359k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $314,148 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.23%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $436,180
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9977 Morning Meadowlark Trl	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,260 (0%)	2mo	$337,296	$149	92
10729 Monarch Wood Gln	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,260 (0%)	1mo	$366,160	$162	83
9915 Trellis Vine Way	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,262 (+0%)	1mo	$414,330	$183	78
10025 Trellis Vine Way	0.35mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,262 (+0%)	1mo	$455,300	$201	76
9837 Trellis Vine Way	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,262 (+0%)	0mo	$440,730	$195	74
9972 Morning Meadowlark Trl	0.17mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,447 (+8%)	1mo	$394,000	$161	70
10049 Hidden Hammock Loop	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,226 (-2%)	1mo	$430,000	$193	67
10413 Abundance Grove Way	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,193 (-3%)	2mo	$408,000	$186	64
10029 Hidden Hammock Loop	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,226 (-2%)	1mo	$455,647	$205	64
10717 Spanish Needle Cv	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,333 (+3%)	0mo	$408,500	$175	62
10526 Abundance Grove Way	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,181 (-4%)	0mo	$457,000	$210	62
11414 Starling Song Pl	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,486 (+10%)	0mo	$480,000	$193	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-113,759
• Equity at exit: $65,036

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-178,123
• Equity at exit: $37,713

Cash invested: $122,130 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,141 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,287
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$545 /mo · $6,543/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $-533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,816

Max offer price $359,116

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-231	-5% $-382	+0% $-533	+5% $-683	+10% $-834
Rent	-10% $-781	-5% $-657	+0% $-533	+5% $-408	+10% $-284
Rate	-1.0pp $-313	-0.5pp $-422	base $-533	+0.5pp $-646	+1.0pp $-761

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,045
• Closing costs: $13,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	12d	1	0.56mi
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	5d	1	0.73mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	5d	1	0.92mi
11454 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,575	$1.57	18d	1	1.02mi
11512 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1929	$3,300	$1.71	25d	1	1.05mi
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	25d	1	1.12mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,304	$1.46	3d	32	1.14mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	5d	1	1.15mi
11880 Little River Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	25d	1	1.20mi
11884 Little River Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2142	$3,250	$1.52	18d	1	1.20mi
10935 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	25d	1	1.23mi
8614 Mercator Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2910	$3,300	$1.13	25d	1	1.35mi
11628 Moonsail Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2144	$3,500	$1.63	23d	1	1.43mi
11230 82nd St E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,495	$1.42	18d	1	1.44mi
8541 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2389	$2,800	$1.17	12d	1	1.44mi
8031 111th Ter E Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	3067	$4,150	$1.35	25d	1	1.46mi
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	18d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $363,990 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $363,990 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $363,990 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $363,990 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $363,990 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $363,990 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $363,990 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $363,990 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $363,990 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $363,990 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $363,990 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $363,990 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $363,990 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $363,990 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $363,990 Active 190 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,433
• − Property taxes: −$6,543
• − Insurance: −$2,181
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,016
• − Management: −$3,016
• − Depreciation: −$12,689
• Taxable loss: −$14,179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,403
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B