24571 Vale Ln · Houston, TX 77365

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1979 0.35 ac lot $71/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don’t miss out on this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on a generous 1/3-acre lot! This property features a living room with soaring ceilings, creating an open and inviting atmosphere. The kitchen offers nice countertops, microwave & dishwasher. Envision tile flooring extending through the kitchen, breakfast area, foyer, and bathrooms for easy maintenance. Enjoy comfortable living with well-sized bedrooms that provide plenty of space for a growing household. Outside, you’ll find ample parking areas and a metal storage building located behind the home—perfect for tools, equipment, or extra storage needs. A great opportunity with room to spread out, both inside and out!

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Ample parking
• Bright living room

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• AMPLE PARKING
• METAL STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $772 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 941 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.41%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,246
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -58.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23410 Scenic Rdg	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-1%)	14mo	$245,000	$178	68
23376 Ivy Rdg	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-6%)	8mo	$160,000	$123	63
22928 Yupon St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,408 (+1%)	10mo	$250,000	$178	58
23175 E Martin Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+12%)	16mo	$295,900	$190	57
24272 Evergreen Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+7%)	17mo	$249,900	$168	56
23490 Flower Ridge Ln	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,472 (+6%)	13mo	$275,000	$187	55
25045 Virginia Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-2%)	23mo	$184,999	$135	55
24303 W Oak Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,199 (-14%)	10mo	$199,900	$167	52
24927 Lynn Ln	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-14%)	0mo	$110,000	$92	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $30,595
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $79,876
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 941
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,937 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,376/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $772

Break-even live

Break-even rent $960

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23227 Albert Dr Porter, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	43d	1	0.24mi
24551 Cunningham Dr Porter, TX	2.0	1.0	904	$1,075	$1.19	43d	1	0.59mi
22189 E Martin Dr Porter, TX	3.0	1.5	1015	$1,475	$1.45	43d	1	0.86mi
22189 E Martin Dr Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1015	$1,475	$1.45	12d	1	0.86mi
4250 Woodridge Pkwy Porter, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	891	$2,030	$2.28	24d	1	1.17mi
2315 Shadbury Ct Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,725	$1.16	43d	1	1.31mi
5714 Straight Way Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,830	$1.02	19d	1	1.44mi
5110 Shady Gardens Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	3.0	1548	$1,800	$1.16	5d	1	1.47mi
4031 Sherwood St W Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,850	$1.20	43d	1	1.48mi
3206 Abbey Field Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,623	$1.07	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $99,000 Pending 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-04-22
   price $119,000 708-char remark

   Show marketing remark (708 chars)

   Don’t miss out on this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on a generous 1/3-acre lot! This property features a living room with soaring ceilings, creating an open and inviting atmosphere. The kitchen offers nice countertops, microwave & dishwasher. Envision tile flooring extending through the kitchen, breakfast area, foyer, and bathrooms for easy maintenance. Enjoy comfortable living with well-sized bedrooms that provide plenty of space for a growing household. Outside, you’ll find ample parking areas and a metal storage building located behind the home—perfect for tools, equipment, or extra storage needs. A great opportunity with room to spread out, both inside and out!

7. 2026-03-18
   listed $129,000 Active 708-char remark

   Show marketing remark (708 chars)

   Don’t miss out on this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on a generous 1/3-acre lot! This property features a living room with soaring ceilings, creating an open and inviting atmosphere. The kitchen offers nice countertops, microwave & dishwasher. Envision tile flooring extending through the kitchen, breakfast area, foyer, and bathrooms for easy maintenance. Enjoy comfortable living with well-sized bedrooms that provide plenty of space for a growing household. Outside, you’ll find ample parking areas and a metal storage building located behind the home—perfect for tools, equipment, or extra storage needs. A great opportunity with room to spread out, both inside and out!

8. 2017-02-13
   soldstatus
9. 2017-01-03
   soldstatus
10. 2014-03-07
    historical
11. 2013-10-22
    price $79,900
12. 2013-09-24
    price $84,900
13. 2013-08-24
    listed $89,900 Active
14. 2007-03-16
    historical
15. 2006-10-24
    listed $89,900
16. 2005-04-14
    historical
17. 2005-02-25
    listed $89,900
18. 2003-07-15
    historical
19. 2003-06-13
    listed $89,900
20. 2001-04-09
    historical
21. 2001-03-07
    soldstatus
22. 2000-11-15
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,376 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,376 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$2,376
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,860
• − Management: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $8,229
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,975
• After-tax cash flow: $7,287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1016.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+48.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2017-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-03-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-10-22 Price Changed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2013-09-24 Price Changed $84,900 HARMLS
• 2013-08-24 Listed $89,900 HARMLS
• 2007-03-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-10-24 Listed $89,900 HARMLS
• 2005-04-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-02-25 Listed $89,900 HARMLS
• 2003-07-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-06-13 Listed $89,900 HARMLS
• 2001-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2001-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-11-15 Listed $79,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,376 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.