Ballad Plan · Ranson, WV 25438

$304,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,951 sqft · Townhouse · 110 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Ballad - a stunning townhome that combines the convenience of a 1-car garage with the spacious feel and style of a single-family home. Step inside through the welcoming ground-floor foyer, leading to a versatile oversized recreation room that can easily transform into a private guest suite with the addition of a full bath. Upstairs, an expansive great room offers the perfect setting for relaxing or entertaining. The adjoining gourmet kitchen, complete with a generous island, walk-in pantry, and open dining area, makes cooking and gathering a true delight. On the third floor, discover two comfortable secondary bedrooms and a full bath. Retreat to your luxurious owner's suite,

Key facts

• Dual walk-in closets
• Private backyard
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• 1 CAR GARAGE
• OVERSIZED RECREATION ROOM
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• DUAL WALK-IN CLOSETS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: Single-family new-construction plan named Ballad; Listing status: Active
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,951 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Active new-construction plan (Ballad)

🏗️ New construction. The $304,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $368,739.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-835 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#100 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #6 of 55 in WV (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 324 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,162 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $216,878 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.70%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $368,739
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1729 Destrier St	0.40mi	3/3.0	1,951 (0%)	1mo	$329,990	$169	79
1737 Destrier St	0.40mi	3/3.0	2,144 (+10%)	2mo	$365,990	$171	62
1266 Red Clover Ln Lot 144 LANCASTER	0.47mi	3/3.0	1,750 (-10%)	3mo	$339,240	$194	57
1264 Red Clover Ln Lot 145 LANCASTER	0.47mi	3/3.0	1,750 (-10%)	3mo	$305,740	$175	57
1725 Destrier St	0.40mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,144 (+10%)	2mo	$359,990	$168	55
308 Presidents Pointe Ave #611	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,731 (-11%)	1mo	$319,990	$185	49
300 Presidents Pointe Ave #609	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,731 (-11%)	1mo	$340,000	$196	49
316 Presidents Pointe Ave #613	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,731 (-11%)	1mo	$344,990	$199	49
304 Presidents Pointe Ave #610	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,731 (-11%)	2mo	$319,990	$185	49
312 Presidents Pointe Ave #612	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,731 (-11%)	2mo	$329,990	$191	48
54 Coolidge Ave	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,745 (-11%)	3mo	$330,000	$189	48
90 Peter Rabbit Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,692 (-13%)	3mo	$377,500	$223	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $147,680
• Equity at exit: $332,189

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $476,777
• Equity at exit: $716,379

Cash invested: $103,247 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25438

• Home prices YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,169 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,934
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$461 /mo · $5,531/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-835

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,226

Max offer price $247,922

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-580	-5% $-708	+0% $-835	+5% $-962	+10% $-1,090
Rent	-10% $-1,006	-5% $-921	+0% $-835	+5% $-749	+10% $-664
Rate	-1.0pp $-649	-0.5pp $-741	base $-835	+0.5pp $-930	+1.0pp $-1,028

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,185
• Closing costs: $11,062
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1344 Red Clover Ln Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1723	$2,099	$1.22	14d	1	0.45mi
452 18th Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1726	$1,895	$1.10	0d	1	0.50mi
112 Cecily Way Unit 112 Ranson, WV	3.0	4.0	1905	$2,100	$1.10	6d	1	0.50mi
1308 Cedar Valley Rd Unit 1308 Ranson, WV	2.0	4.0	1333	$1,899	$1.42	25d	1	0.54mi
51 Cecily Way Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1998	$2,000	$1.00	14d	1	0.55mi
37 Cecily Way Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	2540	$2,100	$0.83	25d	1	0.56mi
214 Coolidge Ave Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1387	$1,925	$1.39	19d	1	0.58mi
405 17th Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1725	$2,150	$1.25	6d	1	0.60mi
415 17th Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1521	$1,990	$1.31	25d	1	0.60mi
36 Anthem St Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1397	$1,800	$1.29	25d	1	0.63mi
99 Anthem St Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1387	$2,000	$1.44	25d	1	0.67mi
300 Presidents Pointe Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1731	$2,200	$1.27	19d	1	0.67mi
1247 Mare St Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1985	$2,080	$1.05	25d	1	0.68mi
163 Anthem St Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1386	$2,500	$1.80	5d	1	0.68mi
34 Coolidge Ave Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1397	$1,850	$1.32	3d	1	0.69mi
1130 Stallion St Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,900	$1.15	6d	1	0.76mi
495 National St Ranson, WV	2.0	2.5	1330	$1,850	$1.39	25d	1	0.82mi
406 Freeman St Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,600	$1.36	4d	1	1.01mi
35 Short Branch Dr Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,200	$1.13	5d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $304,990 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on market $304,990 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,990 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 89 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,655
• − Property taxes: −$5,531
• − Insurance: −$1,844
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,082
• − Management: −$2,082
• − Depreciation: −$10,727
• Taxable loss: −$16,896
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,055
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,964/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400570
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,038
• Composite: 33.98/100
• National rank: #5322
• State rank: #6 of 55 in WV

Livability — Ranson

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #11255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ranson, WV
• County: Jefferson County · 28,403 people
• City population: 7,330
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 7,330
• Household income: $81,875
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,715 people
• By 2030: 64,052 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 67,713 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 69,843 · +13.2%
• By 2075: 72,679 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 71,872 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+15.8) · D 41.0% · R 56.8% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -15.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.8 2020: R+10.5 2016: R+15.3 2012: R+4.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.87%
• Current HPI: 352.707
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0