307 Paxford Dr · Virginia Beach, VA 23462

$289,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,614 sqft · Townhouse public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1983 4,952 sqft lot Est $453k · 36% under · waterfront $27/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious Townhome in Desirable Kempsville Lake! Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom end-unit townhouse at 307 Paxford Drive. Boasting over 1,600sqft. of comfortable living space, this home features a cozy masonry fireplace and an open layout good for entertaining. Step outside to your private, fully fenced backyard—for possible pets or summer BBQs—complete with a detached storage shed. Sliding patio door and garbage disposal replaced in 2025. Enjoy resort-style amenities of Kempsville Lake, including a pool, tennis courts, clubhouse, playground, and scenic lakefront walking trails. Located just minutes from vibrant shops and restaurants at Town Center, this property

Key facts

• Masonry fireplace
• Tennis courts
• Pool

Tags

• MASONRY FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED STORAGE SHED
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• POOL
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has HOA (Kempsville Lake Community Association); HOA fee $27 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking spaces
• Utilities: City/county water; City/county sewer; Electric power
• Home design: Attached townhouse; End unit; 2 stories; 2 living levels; Simple ownership
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back fenced yard; Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with bath; No bedroom and full bathroom on first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood stove; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-97 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Virginia Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#38 in VA, #880 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, commute F.
• Va Beach City Public School District (urban): math 69% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #10 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Kempsville Elementary (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A-, #273 of 1,108 statewide, top 27%, 469 students, 42% FRL); Larkspur Middle (math 60% / reading 72%, grade A-, #113 of 342 statewide, top 33%, 1,536 students, 60% FRL); Kempsville High (math 73% / reading 78%, grade A-, #105 of 319 statewide, top 33%, 2,006 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 28% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 229 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 666 units permitted in Virginia Beach city in 2024 (347 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Virginia Beach County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $238k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,319 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.44%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $453,211
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 Paxford Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,614 (0%)	0mo	$289,900	$180	100
261 Weller Blvd	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,614 (0%)	2mo	$310,000	$192	92
324 Elderwood Ct	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,696 (+5%)	1mo	$360,000	$212	85
5012 Dunderdale Ct	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,656 (+3%)	1mo	$325,000	$196	82
5003 Dunderdale Ct	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,572 (-3%)	2mo	$315,000	$200	79
4703 Sweetwood Ct	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,668 (+3%)	2mo	$347,000	$208	77
4798 Open Greens Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,607 (-0%)	2mo	$393,000	$245	69
4501 Greyedge Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,460 (-10%)	1mo	$330,000	$226	66
4535 Greyedge Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,440 (-11%)	0mo	$205,000	$142	65
4606 Stonebridge Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,386 (-14%)	2mo	$320,000	$231	57
4805 Haymarket Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,416 (-12%)	0mo	$327,000	$231	52
4973 Almandine Ave Unit 157A	0.53mi	3/3.5	1,815 (+12%)	1mo	$359,000	$198	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-47,019
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-22,270
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23462

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 229
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,293 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,891/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,416

Max offer price $272,708

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $67	-5% $-15	+0% $-97	+5% $-179	+10% $-261
Rent	-10% $-278	-5% $-188	+0% $-97	+5% $-7	+10% $84
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $-24	base $-97	+0.5pp $-172	+1.0pp $-249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4863 Woods Edge Rd Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1239	$2,100	$1.69	5d	1	0.10mi
4800 Deming Ct Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1239	$2,200	$1.78	23d	1	0.10mi
4905 Windbrooke Ct Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,000	$1.25	16d	1	0.14mi
317 Elderwood Ct Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,000	$1.20	25d	1	0.14mi
202 Stonehall Ct Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1614	$2,200	$1.36	19d	1	0.16mi
202 Stonehall Ct Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1614	$2,200	$1.36	6d	1	0.16mi
4828 Oldwick Ct Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,425	$1.45	19d	1	0.19mi
4822 Oldwick Ct Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	2.5	1692	$2,295	$1.36	25d	1	0.19mi
5048 Glen Canyon Dr Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	3.0	2128	$2,955	$1.39	9d	1	0.21mi
4801 Afton Ct Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,000	$1.61	19d	1	0.29mi
412 Kenley Rd Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	3.0	1424	$2,400	$1.69	14d	1	0.36mi
5031 Clairmont Ct Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1572	$2,000	$1.27	25d	1	0.38mi
535 Mulligan Dr Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	2.5	1409	$2,195	$1.56	16d	1	0.43mi
4968 Limestone Ave Unit 1 Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	3.5	1815	$3,000	$1.65	25d	1	0.45mi
226 Larimar Ave Unit 47C Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	2.5	1480	$2,395	$1.62	9d	1	0.55mi
4969 Almandine Ave Unit 1 Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	3.5	1938	$2,995	$1.55	4d	1	0.55mi
4805 Carnelian Way Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	2.5	1749	$2,395	$1.37	25d	1	0.60mi
4884 Travertine Ave Unit 00 216304M Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1254	$2,250	$1.79	19d	1	0.64mi
4884 Travertine Ave Unit 00 208203O Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1254	$2,100	$1.67	25d	1	0.65mi
5313 Sir Barton Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1556	$2,750	$1.77	25d	1	0.96mi
805 Sussex Ct Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	2.5	2031	$2,700	$1.33	6d	1	0.99mi
611 Oleander Cir Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,900	$1.52	16d	1	1.00mi
345 W Palmyra Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1927	$2,450	$1.27	23d	1	1.08mi
658 Oleander Cir Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	2.5	1254	$2,050	$1.63	25d	1	1.11mi
5363 Leicester Ct Unit 1 Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	1.5	1330	$2,000	$1.50	25d	1	1.11mi
113 S Parliament Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,600	$1.47	25d	1	1.14mi
5382 Leicester Ct Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	1.5	1320	$1,900	$1.44	25d	1	1.16mi
917 Timber Creek Pl Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	2.5	2044	$2,799	$1.37	14d	1	1.26mi
307 Ferdinand Cir Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	2.5	1254	$1,775	$1.42	25d	1	1.30mi
315 Ferdinand Cir Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	2.5	1254	$1,950	$1.56	25d	1	1.30mi
337 Dorset Ave Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	1.0	1180	$1,700	$1.44	9d	1	1.33mi
5441 Greenwich Rd Virginia Beach, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$3,149	$2.93	3d	13	1.35mi
820 Timberlake Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1812	$2,495	$1.38	16d	1	1.35mi
150 Loflin Way Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	2.0	1197	$1,775	$1.48	25d	1	1.42mi
5485 Glenville Cir Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1588	$2,500	$1.57	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $27 · $324/yr
• Likely covers: trashpool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $289,900 Under Contract 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $289,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $289,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-05-18
   status Under Contract
7. 2026-05-01
   listed $289,900 Active
8. 2025-03-05
   historical $1,750
9. 2025-02-22
   listed $1,750
10. 2020-12-07
    soldstatus $238,000
11. 2020-11-18
    status Under Contract
12. 2020-10-31
    historical Active Under Contract
13. 2020-10-29
    status Active
14. 2020-10-29
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2020-10-28
    listed $234,900 Active
16. 1983-05-10
    soldstatus $71,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,891 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,891 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$2,891
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,201
• − Management: −$2,201
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$6,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,493
• After-tax cash flow: $325/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Va Beach City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103840
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $66,452
• Composite: 63.81/100
• National rank: #594
• State rank: #10 of 131 in VA

Livability — Virginia Beach

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #880

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Virginia Beach, VA
• County: Virginia Beach City · 448,227 people
• City population: 448,227
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 66,151
• Household income: $69,040
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 3906.0

Population outlook (Virginia Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 480,401 people
• By 2030: 491,221 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 504,882 · +5.1%
• By 2050: 508,847 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 504,831 · +5.1%
• By 2100: 465,867 · -3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Virginia Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 48.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -0.7pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.5 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -269.19%
• Current HPI: 333.1908
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.61%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+304.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $289,900 REINMLS
• 2025-03-05 Rental Removed $1,750 REINMLS
• 2025-02-22 Listed for Rent $1,750 REINMLS
• 2020-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $238,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-18 Pending — REINMLS
• 2020-10-31 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2020-10-29 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2020-10-29 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2020-10-28 Listed $234,900 REINMLS
• 1983-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $71,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,891 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.