14014 Lott Mccarty Rd · Picayune, MS 39466

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 165 Days on market

Built 2007 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful country atmosphere with lists of privacy. This large home has a ton of potential. Just needs a little love. Newer luxury vinyl has been installed to replace all carpet. Sunken large kitchen with great lighting from many windows over the sink counter area. Large kitchen island and many cabinets makes this room a great family hub. Living room island huge with 2 areas that could be separated for sitting areas or even a separate dining area in addition to the eat in kitchen. Owners suite is also very large with a spacious bathroom with a walk in closet, tub, and separate shower. Property is surround with trees for privacy and open spaces for maybe another home or two. Currently using

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Owners suite
• Many cabinets

Tags

• NEWER LUXURY VINYL
• SUNKEN LARGE KITCHEN
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• MANY CABINETS
• OWNERS SUITE
• SPACIOUS BATHROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Barbed wire fencing; Cross fenced; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($530/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.3% in Picayune — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#11 in MS, #3,748 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Picayune School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #60 of 130 in MS (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nicholson Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #232 of 375 statewide, top 63%, 363 students, 100% FRL); Picayune Junior High School (math 40% / reading 33%, grade F, #77 of 179 statewide, top 43%, 510 students, 100% FRL); Picayune Memorial High School (math 21% / reading 41%, grade F, #85 of 197 statewide, top 43%, 941 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 73% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 349 active listings in the ZIP; 248 units permitted in Hancock County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hancock County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.15%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-23,922
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-17,203
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39466

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,457 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,070/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,401

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $91	+0% $44	+5% $-3	+10% $-49
Rent	-10% $-71	-5% $-13	+0% $44	+5% $102	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $86	base $44	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-28
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-11-21
   listed $165,000 Active
4. 1993-10-11
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,070 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,070 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,479
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,070
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,398
• − Management: −$1,398
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$541
• After-tax cash flow: $1,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Picayune School District
• NCES district ID: 2803630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,446
• Composite: 27.17/100
• National rank: #7025
• State rank: #60 of 130 in MS

Livability — Picayune

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #3748

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 28,292

Population outlook (Hancock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,161 people
• By 2030: 54,753 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 59,242 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 62,417 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 68,168 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 69,212 · +32.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 18% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hancock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.7) · D 20.1% · R 78.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -58.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.7 2020: R+55.5 2016: R+59.4 2012: R+52.8 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.32%
• Current HPI: 194.6541
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — PRCBOR
• 2025-11-28 Contingent — PRCBOR
• 2025-11-21 Listed $165,000 PRCBOR
• 1993-10-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,070 · -9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.