5104 Sienna Dr · Lynn Haven, FL 32404

$280,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,270 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2023 5,489 sqft lot $220/sqft · at area comps Est $280k · at est. ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Aldridge plan is a 3 bed, 2 bath home. As you enter this home, you will find bedroom 1 located just off the foyer with a spacious walk-in closet and bath with a double sink vanity. Towards the back of the home you'll find an open concept kitchen, dining and living room area. From the great room, is bedroom 2 and 3 and the second bathroom. Interior features include LVP flooring throughout the home with carpet in the bedrooms and all stainless-steel appliances in the kitchen. This home comes standard with a Smart Home Technology package which includes a KwikSet keyless entry, Skybell doorbell, automated front porch lighting, an Echo Dot device and a Quolsys touch panel which can be used to control your lighting, thermostat, front door and more. It is in the highly desirable community of Titus Park. Located on the north east side of Panama City, Titus Park is a short drive to downtown Panama City, the Gulf of Mexico with sugar sand beaches, Tyndall Air Force Base, shopping, dining, and more!

Key facts

• 5,489 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-405/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Deer Point Elementary School (math 55% / reading 49%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 705 students, 55% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); A. Crawford Mosley High School (math 51% / reading 55%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,901 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 983 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,667 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,149
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -0.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5129 Rivergrass Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+0%)	23mo	$267,500	$210	78
5005 Rivergrass Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,293 (+2%)	15mo	$284,000	$220	77
5009 Windrow Way	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,293 (+2%)	19mo	$264,900	$205	72
5141 Rivergrass Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,387 (+9%)	23mo	$287,650	$207	56
4443 Riparian Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,458 (+15%)	19mo	$292,650	$201	49
4431 Riparian Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,458 (+15%)	18mo	$293,500	$201	49
5144 Rivergrass Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,458 (+15%)	21mo	$287,650	$197	48
5029 Windrow Way	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,458 (+15%)	21mo	$283,465	$194	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-51,685
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-64,226
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 983
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,207 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,304/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,249

Max offer price $274,033

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $45	+0% $-34	+5% $-113	+10% $-192
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-121	+0% $-34	+5% $53	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $37	base $-34	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5057 Windrow Way Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$2,300	$1.28	23d	1	0.13mi
198 MILL BAYOU Blvd Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1275	$2,110	$1.65	23d	3	0.22mi
4201 County Road 390 Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1275	$1,999	$1.57	23d	7	0.71mi
4031 Oak Forest Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,100	$1.28	23d	1	0.84mi
5284 Emma Grace Dr Panama City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2069	$2,081	$1.01	15d	1	1.08mi
4113 Brighton Blvd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	15d	1	1.13mi
4012 Millicent Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	23d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $280,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $280,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $280,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $280,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $280,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $280,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $280,000 Active 78 DOM
16. 2026-05-03
    price $280,000
17. 2026-03-13
    price $285,000
18. 2026-03-13
    status Active
19. 2025-12-15
    listed $315,000 Active
20. 2023-05-31
    soldstatus $283,650 Closed 1007-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    The Aldridge plan is a 3 bed, 2 bath home. As you enter this home, you will find bedroom 1 located just off the foyer with a spacious walk-in closet and bath with a double sink vanity. Towards the back of the home you'll find an open concept kitchen, dining and living room area. From the great room, is bedroom 2 and 3 and the second bathroom. Interior features include LVP flooring throughout the home with carpet in the bedrooms and all stainless-steel appliances in the kitchen. This home comes standard with a Smart Home Technology package which includes a KwikSet keyless entry, Skybell doorbell, automated front porch lighting, an Echo Dot device and a Quolsys touch panel which can be used to control your lighting, thermostat, front door and more. It is in the highly desirable community of Titus Park. Located on the north east side of Panama City, Titus Park is a short drive to downtown Panama City, the Gulf of Mexico with sugar sand beaches, Tyndall Air Force Base, shopping, dining, and more!

21. 2023-04-16
    status Pending 1007-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    The Aldridge plan is a 3 bed, 2 bath home. As you enter this home, you will find bedroom 1 located just off the foyer with a spacious walk-in closet and bath with a double sink vanity. Towards the back of the home you'll find an open concept kitchen, dining and living room area. From the great room, is bedroom 2 and 3 and the second bathroom. Interior features include LVP flooring throughout the home with carpet in the bedrooms and all stainless-steel appliances in the kitchen. This home comes standard with a Smart Home Technology package which includes a KwikSet keyless entry, Skybell doorbell, automated front porch lighting, an Echo Dot device and a Quolsys touch panel which can be used to control your lighting, thermostat, front door and more. It is in the highly desirable community of Titus Park. Located on the north east side of Panama City, Titus Park is a short drive to downtown Panama City, the Gulf of Mexico with sugar sand beaches, Tyndall Air Force Base, shopping, dining, and more!

22. 2023-03-29
    listed $283,650 Active 1007-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    The Aldridge plan is a 3 bed, 2 bath home. As you enter this home, you will find bedroom 1 located just off the foyer with a spacious walk-in closet and bath with a double sink vanity. Towards the back of the home you'll find an open concept kitchen, dining and living room area. From the great room, is bedroom 2 and 3 and the second bathroom. Interior features include LVP flooring throughout the home with carpet in the bedrooms and all stainless-steel appliances in the kitchen. This home comes standard with a Smart Home Technology package which includes a KwikSet keyless entry, Skybell doorbell, automated front porch lighting, an Echo Dot device and a Quolsys touch panel which can be used to control your lighting, thermostat, front door and more. It is in the highly desirable community of Titus Park. Located on the north east side of Panama City, Titus Park is a short drive to downtown Panama City, the Gulf of Mexico with sugar sand beaches, Tyndall Air Force Base, shopping, dining, and more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,304 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,324 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$20/yr (+$2/mo · 0.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$2,304
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,118
• − Management: −$2,118
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$5,291
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,270
• After-tax cash flow: $864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 21,459
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $280,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $285,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $315,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-05-31 Sold (MLS) $283,650 CPARMLS
• 2023-04-16 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2023-03-29 Listed $283,650 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+60.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,304 · -16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.