153 Tar Landing Rd · Holly Ridge, NC 28445

$205,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1998 1.60 ac lot Est $238k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special with strong potential in the Holly Ridge area. This 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers approximately 1,624 heated square feet and sits on a spacious 1.60-acre lot, providing plenty of room and privacy. Featuring a functional layout, sizable kitchen, and comfortable living spaces, this property is ideal for investors, flippers, rental opportunities, or buyers looking to add value through a light rehab. Conveniently located near local beaches, shopping, dining, and Camp Lejeune, this property offers a great opportunity to create value in a desirable coastal area.

Key facts

• Sizable kitchen
• Camp lejeune
• Shopping

Tags

• SPACIOUS 1.60-ACRE LOT
• SIZABLE KITCHEN
• LOCAL BEACHES
• SHOPPING
• DINING
• CAMP LEJEUNE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1.6 acres (390' x 170'); Zoned R-8M

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); One-level / single-story; Entry at level 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction
• Exterior features: Front porch; Partial chain-link fencing; Shingle roof; Has a view; Paved road access; Road frontage on city street and state road

Interior

• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Master bedroom on the main level; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $535 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.0% in Holly Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#78 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dixon Elementary (math 63% / reading 66%, grade B, #147 of 1,410 statewide, top 11%, 736 students, 30% FRL); Dixon Middle (math 49% / reading 53%, grade C, #106 of 475 statewide, top 22%, 948 students, 39% FRL); Onslow Early College (math 95%, 186 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 58% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Onslow County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 453 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $205k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,925 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.19%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
208 Clearview Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (+9%)	16mo	$259,500	$150	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,980
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $50,240
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28445

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $804/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,554

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $651	-5% $593	+0% $535	+5% $477	+10% $419
Rent	-10% $359	-5% $447	+0% $535	+5% $623	+10% $711
Rate	-1.0pp $638	-0.5pp $587	base $535	+0.5pp $482	+1.0pp $428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
139 Tile Ln Holly Ridge, NC	3.0	3.0	1518	$2,000	$1.32	21d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $205,000
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $215,000 Active
3. 2006-10-11
   soldstatus $106,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $804 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,681 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: +$877/yr (+$73/mo · 109.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$804
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,142
• − Management: −$2,142
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $3,215
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$771
• After-tax cash flow: $5,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onslow County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703450
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,076
• Composite: 38.66/100
• National rank: #4148
• State rank: #84 of 178 in NC

Livability — Holly Ridge

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #5549

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Onslow County · 164,453 people
• City population: 10,797
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,797
• Household income: $84,016
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 131.0

Population outlook (Onslow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,789 people
• By 2030: 194,463 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 193,629 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 193,248 · +1.8%
• By 2075: 196,995 · +3.8%
• By 2100: 201,513 · +6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Onslow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.5% · R 67.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+34.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -291.92%
• Current HPI: 193.9949
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.53%
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+93.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $205,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $215,000 Hive MLS
• 2006-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $804 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.