1000 Hawthorn Dr · Warrington, FL 32507

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,110 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1957 6,276 sqft lot $126/sqft · 8% below area Est $152k · 8% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits at 1000 Hawthorn Dr! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers solid bones and is ready for your vision. Featuring a brick exterior, functional floor plan, and spacious living areas, this property provides a great foundation for renovation or investment. Interior includes tile flooring throughout, multiple living spaces, and a split bathroom layout. Situated on a generously sized lot, the property offers ample outdoor space with room for storage, parking, or future improvements. Conveniently located near NAS Pensacola, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize a home to their own style. Property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• Brick exterior
• Generously sized lot

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• TILE FLOORING
• MULTIPLE LIVING SPACES
• SPLIT BATHROOM LAYOUT
• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.86%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,243
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -8.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 N Runyan St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (-3%)	3mo	$105,000	$97	72
236 Brigadier St	0.04mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,263 (+14%)	2mo	$90,000	$71	67
10 N Jamaica St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,175 (+6%)	2mo	$205,000	$174	64
714 Wingate St	0.32mi	2/1.0	1,024 (-8%)	9mo	$120,000	$117	64
14 Mindoro Cir	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,182 (+6%)	6mo	$170,000	$144	63
1322 Patton Dr	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (-3%)	12mo	$170,000	$157	62
214 Thayer Ave	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,147 (+3%)	12mo	$258,000	$225	54
10 Sulu Dr	0.32mi	2/1.0	960 (-14%)	13mo	$149,900	$156	51
1107 Paulding Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,114 (+0%)	11mo	$201,990	$181	50
11 S Runyan St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,180 (+6%)	16mo	$150,000	$127	47
210 Delray Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,200 (+8%)	12mo	$189,000	$158	36
225 Delray Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0	950 (-14%)	12mo	$149,000	$157	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-8,938
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,971
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32507

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,467 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,320/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,142

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $336	-5% $296	+0% $257	+5% $217	+10% $177
Rent	-10% $141	-5% $199	+0% $257	+5% $315	+10% $373
Rate	-1.0pp $327	-0.5pp $292	base $257	+0.5pp $220	+1.0pp $183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45 W Carver Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	940	$1,325	$1.41	24d	1	0.07mi
26 N Lincoln Rd Unit B Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	759	$1,050	$1.38	14d	1	0.16mi
7 Mindoro Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	924	$1,395	$1.51	24d	1	0.25mi
99 S 3rd St Unit 3 Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,259	$1.40	24d	1	0.71mi
1120 S Old Corry Field Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	24d	1	0.74mi
315 Flannan Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	836	$1,745	$2.09	14d	1	0.79mi
210 S 2nd St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,900	$1.54	24d	1	0.81mi
103 NW Kalash Rd Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,400	$1.12	24d	1	0.81mi
2 E Sunset Ave Unit 3 Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	806	$1,350	$1.67	24d	1	0.83mi
718 Mills Ave Unit A Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	728	$1,200	$1.65	24d	1	0.84mi
300 Gibbs Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1377	$1,999	$1.45	24d	1	0.96mi
405 E Palmetto Ave Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	24d	1	0.99mi
570 Quigley Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,525	$1.28	24d	1	1.03mi
1007 Winton Ave Unit B Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,295	$1.60	24d	1	1.10mi
346 Quigley Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1021	$1,500	$1.47	24d	1	1.15mi
206 Berry Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,000	$1.34	24d	1	1.21mi
4600 Twin Oaks Dr Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	838	$1,499	$1.79	14d	29	1.27mi
316 Teakwood Cir Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.5	1024	$1,350	$1.32	14d	1	1.28mi
190 N Old Corry Field Rd Pensacola, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,174	$1.28	14d	3	1.36mi
5501 Mayfair Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	912	$1,295	$1.42	24d	1	1.42mi
7071 Lake Joanne Dr Unit 2A Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	24d	1	1.46mi
7071 Lake Joanne Dr Unit 2C Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	14d	1	1.46mi
542 S 72nd Ave Unit C Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $140,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $145,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $155,000 695-char remark

    Show marketing remark (695 chars)

    Opportunity awaits at 1000 Hawthorn Dr! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers solid bones and is ready for your vision. Featuring a brick exterior, functional floor plan, and spacious living areas, this property provides a great foundation for renovation or investment. Interior includes tile flooring throughout, multiple living spaces, and a split bathroom layout. Situated on a generously sized lot, the property offers ample outdoor space with room for storage, parking, or future improvements. Conveniently located near NAS Pensacola, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize a home to their own style. Property is being sold as-is.

16. 2026-04-22
    listed $165,000 Active 695-char remark

    Show marketing remark (695 chars)

    Opportunity awaits at 1000 Hawthorn Dr! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers solid bones and is ready for your vision. Featuring a brick exterior, functional floor plan, and spacious living areas, this property provides a great foundation for renovation or investment. Interior includes tile flooring throughout, multiple living spaces, and a split bathroom layout. Situated on a generously sized lot, the property offers ample outdoor space with room for storage, parking, or future improvements. Conveniently located near NAS Pensacola, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize a home to their own style. Property is being sold as-is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,320
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,409
• − Management: −$1,409
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $856
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$205
• After-tax cash flow: $2,875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warrington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrington, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,226
• Household income: $73,540
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.23%
• Current HPI: 548.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $155,000 PARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $165,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,320 · +18.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.