18315 Mahaffey Circle Cir · Vance, AL 35490

$225,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,255 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2008 0.52 ac lot Est $222k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Briar Ridge Subdivision! Situated on a spacious half-acre fenced lot (backyard), this property offers plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, pets, and play. Inside, you'll love the durable and stylish LVP flooring that flows throughout the main living areas. The functional floor plan provides comfortable living spaces, a welcoming atmosphere, and plenty of natural light. Conveniently located and move-in ready, this home combines neighborhood living with the added space and privacy of a larger lot. Don't miss your opportunity to make this Briar Ridge gem your own!

Key facts

• Outdoor entertaining
• Natural light
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• FENCED LOT
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• LVP FLOORING
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• LARGER LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions provided to property
• Financial info: Not specified
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Briar Ridge

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Concrete driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Composition/shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built in recent years (year not specified)
• Exterior features: Covered patio and porch; Porch; Wood fencing; Gazebo; Paved road access; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Ceiling-fan cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Kitchen island; Pantry; Soaking tub; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Blinds; Gas log and wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $226k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($507/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (23.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.7% in Vance — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#117 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vance Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #367 of 627 statewide, top 60%, 499 students, 69% FRL); Brookwood Middle School (math 8% / reading 36%, grade F, #182 of 257 statewide, top 71%, 796 students, 65% FRL); Brookwood High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,078 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 45% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $136k; list at $226k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,110 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.80%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,135
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18424 Marsh Pkwy	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+3%)	10mo	$200,000	$155	79
18383 Mahaffey Circle Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+6%)	5mo	$225,200	$170	79
18430 Marsh Pkwy	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,264 (+1%)	20mo	$224,900	$178	74
18328 Mahaffey Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,095 (-13%)	1mo	$225,000	$205	70
18274 Mahaffey Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-12%)	7mo	$224,500	$204	64
10801 Vance Blocton Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,323 (+5%)	9mo	$185,000	$140	63
18429 Marsh Pkwy	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,331 (+6%)	21mo	$235,000	$177	63
18446 Marsh Pkwy	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+12%)	10mo	$250,000	$178	59
18262 Mahaffey Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,121 (-11%)	22mo	$205,000	$183	54
18453 Marsh Pkwy	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,367 (+9%)	21mo	$234,900	$172	54
10577 Keller Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+14%)	14mo	$250,000	$175	50
10593 Randall Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,437 (+14%)	21mo	$225,000	$157	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $125,601
• Equity at exit: $203,509

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.81×
• Total profit: $367,523
• Equity at exit: $438,874

Cash invested: $63,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35490

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,731 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,185
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $559/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,678

Max offer price $225,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $106	+0% $42	+5% $-22	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $-95	-5% $-26	+0% $42	+5% $111	+10% $179
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $100	base $42	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,475
• Closing costs: $6,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18542 Caffee Dr Vance, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,750	$0.99	22d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $225,900 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 641-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $225,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $559 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $926 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$367/yr (+$31/mo · 65.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,654
• − Property taxes: −$559
• − Insurance: −$1,130
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − Depreciation: −$6,572
• Taxable loss: −$3,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$832
• After-tax cash flow: $1,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Vance

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #12508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vance, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 4,457
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,457
• Household income: $87,813
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: French 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.30%
• Current HPI: 222.8671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+66.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $225,900 WAMLS
• 2019-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $136,000 Public Records
• 2008-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $136,076 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $559 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.