2907 Vales Point Dr · Fresno, TX 77545

$290,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,165 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 281 Days on market

Built 2018 6,272 sqft lot $134/sqft · at area comps Est $282k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well designed one-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with an open floor plan that creates a great flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen overlooks the living area and features a central island that's ideal for casual meals or gathering with family and friends. In addition to the open living space, there’s a separate dining area, perfect for hosting dinners or enjoying family meals. The home features tile flooring in the main areas and carpet in the bedrooms for added comfort. Step outside to a covered back patio, great for relaxing or outdoor entertaining. Situated on a corner lot, this home offers extra outdoor space and added privacy. Contact me today with any questions.

Key facts

• Central island
• Open floor plan
• Covered back patio

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rosa Parks El (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,470 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 651 students, 76% FRL); Lake Olympia Middle (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 1,170 students, 71% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,844
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: 2.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2923 Vales Point Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	2,079 (-4%)	1mo	$306,900	$148	91
2022 Wellfleet Xing	0.17mi	4/2.0	2,098 (-3%)	0mo	$290,000	$138	87
2811 Darby Brook Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0	2,140 (-1%)	4mo	$275,000	$129	86
2406 Grove View Trl	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,165 (0%)	2mo	$297,500	$137	86
1927 Vermillion View St	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,215 (+2%)	1mo	$277,500	$125	77
3007 Acacia Fair Ln	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,351 (+9%)	2mo	$310,000	$132	71
3111 Cambridge Falls Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,352 (+9%)	3mo	$315,000	$134	62
2543 Tucker Creek Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,323 (+7%)	1mo	$300,000	$129	62
2403 Tall Sequoia Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,340 (+8%)	1mo	$332,500	$142	62
1931 Acorn Glen Trl	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,480 (+14%)	1mo	$279,900	$113	59
3407 Becker Glen St	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,948 (-10%)	0mo	$229,999	$118	57
2611 Cottage Step Trl Trl	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,392 (+10%)	2mo	$295,000	$123	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-49,497
• Equity at exit: $56,581

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-71,467
• Equity at exit: $48,600

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,752 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$592 /mo · $7,100/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,895

Max offer price $270,044

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $-31	+0% $-113	+5% $-195	+10% $-277
Rent	-10% $-330	-5% $-222	+0% $-113	+5% $-4	+10% $104
Rate	-1.0pp $33	-0.5pp $-39	base $-113	+0.5pp $-188	+1.0pp $-265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3623 Elmwood Dale Dr Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,765	$1.14	45d	1	0.63mi
2642 Sunlit Meadow Trl Fresno, TX	5.0	3.5	2785	$4,000	$1.44	45d	1	0.74mi
2403 Orchard Run Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$2,800	$1.92	5d	1	0.86mi
3932 Teal Run Place Ct Fresno, TX	4.0	2.0	1914	$2,150	$1.12	45d	1	1.03mi
3806 Teal Maple Ct Fresno, TX	4.0	3.5	2318	$2,146	$0.93	4d	1	1.04mi
3314 Dry Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2600	$4,200	$1.62	45d	1	1.12mi
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,271	$1.08	7d	1	1.18mi
3211 Breckinridge Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2920	$2,550	$0.87	22d	1	1.28mi
3218 Clayton Terrace Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2278	$2,395	$1.05	21d	1	1.28mi
2709 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	22d	1	1.46mi
2707 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	3d	1	1.46mi
3212 Aldridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,650	$1.06	22d	1	1.47mi
2703 Facet Creek Dr Fresno, TX	4.0	2.0	2099	$2,226	$1.06	0d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $290,000 Active 281 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 275 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 269 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,000 Active 267 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $290,000 Active 264 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 263 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 262 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 261 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 260 DOM
14. 2025-09-13
    listed $290,000 Active 726-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    This well designed one-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with an open floor plan that creates a great flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen overlooks the living area and features a central island that's ideal for casual meals or gathering with family and friends. In addition to the open living space, there’s a separate dining area, perfect for hosting dinners or enjoying family meals. The home features tile flooring in the main areas and carpet in the bedrooms for added comfort. Step outside to a covered back patio, great for relaxing or outdoor entertaining. Situated on a corner lot, this home offers extra outdoor space and added privacy. Contact me today with any questions.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,100 · $592/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,100 · $592/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$7,100
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,642
• − Management: −$2,642
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$6,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,473
• After-tax cash flow: $117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 360.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-13 Listed $290,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+42.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,100 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.