810 Virginia Ave · Lynn Haven, FL 32444

$259,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 358 Days on market

Built 1973 0.34 ac lot Est $291k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This all brick ranch home has lovely pool in the backyard. The home has 3 bedrooms and 1/2 baths and family room. The location is near schools and shopping. The area is adorned with mature trees and offers quiet suburban living. Offered As Is. All measurements are approximate.

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Split-bedroom layout
• Tiled walk-in shower

Tags

• IN-GROUND POOL
• GOLF CART-FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• SEMI-OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• OVER-THE-SINK WINDOW
• TILED WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($81/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Haven Elementary School (math 63% / reading 54%, grade B-, #735 of 2,144 statewide, top 35%, 699 students, 46% FRL); Mowat Middle School (math 49% / reading 51%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 868 students, 49% FRL); A. Crawford Mosley High School (math 51% / reading 55%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,901 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $90k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $260k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,644 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,680
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
509 Alabama Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,378 (+2%)	2mo	$325,000	$236	77
810 Alabama Ave	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	1mo	$299,925	$250	77
1007 Alabama Ave	0.20mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,253 (-7%)	0mo	$225,000	$180	71
411 Virginia Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,421 (+5%)	1mo	$235,000	$165	70
300 Georgia Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,356 (+0%)	2mo	$265,500	$196	70
1007 Georgia Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (+4%)	8mo	$337,000	$239	70
1211 Tennessee Ave	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,450 (+7%)	6mo	$250,000	$172	63
1105 Georgia Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+10%)	7mo	$260,000	$175	57
1506 Carolina Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-4%)	0mo	$279,000	$215	54
1201 Pennsylvania Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,255 (-7%)	7mo	$285,000	$227	50
708 Pennsylvania Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,215 (-10%)	6mo	$235,000	$193	50
314 Indiana Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,551 (+15%)	9mo	$338,500	$218	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-42,682
• Equity at exit: $38,692

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-40,928
• Equity at exit: $22,437

Cash invested: $72,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32444

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,361
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,506/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,208

Max offer price $259,500

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $80	+0% $7	+5% $-67	+10% $-140
Rent	-10% $-168	-5% $-81	+0% $7	+5% $94	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $137	-0.5pp $73	base $7	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,875
• Closing costs: $7,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1307 Pennsylvania Ave Unit 1 Lynn Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1256	$1,500	$1.19	15d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-14
   price $259,500
3. 2025-10-22
   price $257,500
4. 2025-10-01
   status Active
5. 2025-09-30
   historical
6. 2025-09-18
   price $269,900
7. 2025-08-18
   price $279,500
8. 2025-06-27
   price $295,500
9. 2025-05-13
   price $312,500
10. 2025-03-26
    listed $349,900 Active
11. 2011-06-29
    soldstatus $84,900 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    This all brick ranch home has lovely pool in the backyard. The home has 3 bedrooms and 1/2 baths and family room. The location is near schools and shopping. The area is adorned with mature trees and offers quiet suburban living. Offered As Is. All measurements are approximate.

12. 2011-05-24
    listed $84,900 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    This all brick ranch home has lovely pool in the backyard. The home has 3 bedrooms and 1/2 baths and family room. The location is near schools and shopping. The area is adorned with mature trees and offers quiet suburban living. Offered As Is. All measurements are approximate.

13. 2005-04-08
    soldstatus $158,500
14. 2005-03-29
    soldstatus $158,500 109-char remark

    Show marketing remark (109 chars)

    3 Bedroom Brick Home features a large fenced lot, in-ground swimming pool and enclosed garage for extra room.

15. 2004-11-01
    listed $154,900 109-char remark

    Show marketing remark (109 chars)

    3 Bedroom Brick Home features a large fenced lot, in-ground swimming pool and enclosed garage for extra room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,506 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,506 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,536
• − Property taxes: −$2,506
• − Insurance: −$2,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,128
• − Management: −$2,128
• − Depreciation: −$7,549
• Taxable loss: −$4,344
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,043
• After-tax cash flow: $1,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynn Haven, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 21,459
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,459
• Household income: $83,160
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 430.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.08%
• Current HPI: 263.5418
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.52%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+67.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $259,500 CPARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $257,500 CPARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $269,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $279,500 CPARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $295,500 CPARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $312,500 CPARMLS
• 2025-03-26 Listed $349,900 CPARMLS
• 2011-06-29 Sold (MLS) $84,900 CPARMLS
• 2011-05-24 Listed $84,900 CPARMLS
• 2005-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $158,500 Public Records
• 2005-03-29 Sold (MLS) $158,500 CPARMLS
• 2004-11-01 Listed $154,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,506 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.