69-18 Gouverneur Ave · New York, NY 11692

$560,000

2 bd · None ba · 3,135 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 221 Days on market

Built 1930 4,000 sqft lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

INVESTOR SPECIAL!!! CALLING ALL INVESTORS!!! DO NOT MISS out on this amazing opportunity to own this 2 Family Home located in the heart of Arverne. Complete with 6 bedrooms, 5 full bathrooms, basement. Close proximity to train station, highways, beaches, and all major shops. 2 Family House siting on a huge lot 69-18/69-20. Property is occupied and will not be delivered vacant.

Key facts

• 2 family home
• Arverne location
• 4,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• 2 FAMILY HOME
• ARVERNE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.5-bath units multifamily listed at $560k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive. Per door: $940/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $560k).
• Recommended offer: $493k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,440/mo this rent would consume 180% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 1734% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $60k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $56k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $157k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$96k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($493k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $492,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.65%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $424,894
• Equity at exit: $504,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.38×
• Total profit: $1,157,482
• Equity at exit: $1,087,957

Cash invested: $156,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11692

• Home prices YoY: 14.4%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,440 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,937
• Tax from tax record: −$401 /mo · $4,817/yr
• Insurance: −$233
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,562
• Net cashflow: $1,880

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,061

Max offer price $560,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,197	-5% $2,038	+0% $1,880	+5% $1,721	+10% $1,563
Rent	-10% $1,292	-5% $1,586	+0% $1,880	+5% $2,173	+10% $2,467
Rate	-1.0pp $2,162	-0.5pp $2,022	base $1,880	+0.5pp $1,734	+1.0pp $1,587

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2.5	$7,440
Total (2 units)			$7,440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $140,000
• Closing costs: $16,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7708 Aquatic Dr Arverne, NY	2.0	1.0	3681	$2,750	$0.75	8d	1	0.44mi
325 Beach 46th St Far Rockaway, NY	3.0	1.5	2250	$3,100	$1.38	25d	1	1.13mi
2-27R Beach 99th St Rockaway Park, NY	3.0	1.0	2208	$3,500	$1.59	25d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2025-04-01
   price $560,000
3. 2025-03-05
   price $590,000
4. 2024-09-14
   listed $619,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,817 · $401/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,141 · $595/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,323/yr (+$194/mo · 48.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $89,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,369
• − Property taxes: −$4,817
• − Insurance: −$7,918
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,142
• − Management: −$7,142
• − Depreciation: −$16,291
• Taxable income: $14,600
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,504
• After-tax cash flow: $19,051/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,734
• Household income: $49,720
• Rent vs Own: 66.9% rent · 33.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1734.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% White 13% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 44.49%
• Current HPI: 354.2007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $560,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $590,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-14 Listed $619,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,817 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.