70499 J St · Covington, LA 70433

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1997 5,720 sqft lot Est $198k · 14% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT STARTER HOME CLOSE TO ALL AMENITIES. FEATURES 3BR, 2 BTHS, FENCED RER YARD, SHED AND CIRCULAR DRIVE.

Key facts

• Close to amenities
• Fenced rear yard
• 5,720 sq ft lot

Tags

• CLOSE TO AMENITIES
• FENCED REAR YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $291 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.9% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in LA, #3,876 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 524 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.34%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70400 J St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,171 (+2%)	5mo	$206,500	$176	84
70405 F St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	1mo	$182,000	$152	79
70448 D St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,195 (+4%)	3mo	$199,000	$167	77
70292 I St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,125 (-2%)	9mo	$193,500	$172	70
70421 G St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	3mo	$224,000	$175	69
70408 3rd St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,163 (+1%)	1mo	$205,000	$176	69
70412 First St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,182 (+3%)	4mo	$180,000	$152	69
70261 K St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+7%)	2mo	$245,000	$199	65
70284 K St	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (+0%)	9mo	$157,400	$137	64
70400 B St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,212 (+5%)	10mo	$230,000	$190	63
70381 L St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,322 (+15%)	1mo	$218,000	$165	62
70512 4th St	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-4%)	9mo	$58,000	$53	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-6,657
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $27,956
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70433

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 524
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,766 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,697/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,397

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $387	-5% $339	+0% $291	+5% $243	+10% $195
Rent	-10% $152	-5% $221	+0% $291	+5% $361	+10% $431
Rate	-1.0pp $377	-0.5pp $334	base $291	+0.5pp $247	+1.0pp $202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70403 L St Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,695	$1.36	44d	1	0.21mi
70361 D St Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,750	$1.24	24d	1	0.35mi
70466 1st St Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1443	$2,100	$1.46	18d	1	0.47mi
70412 1st St Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,700	$1.44	18d	1	0.49mi
70330 A St Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1163	$1,600	$1.38	20d	1	0.52mi
70439 8th St Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,500	$1.18	24d	1	0.80mi
70293 7th St Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,695	$1.17	44d	1	0.83mi
70300 7th St Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,750	$1.21	24d	1	0.85mi
70371 10th St Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,695	$1.40	44d	1	0.91mi
70252 8th St Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,650	$1.34	24d	1	0.94mi
70040 2nd St Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,000	$1.41	4d	1	1.01mi
70045 3rd St Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,750	$1.22	4d	1	1.02mi
70076 6th St Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,600	$1.39	24d	1	1.07mi
350 Emerald Forest Blvd Covington, LA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$1,600	$1.89	12d	2	1.09mi
711 Lionel Ct Abita Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1497	$2,000	$1.34	24d	1	1.10mi
2021 Sullivan Ln Covington, LA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,856	$2.16	3d	18	1.15mi
70096 10th St Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1391	$1,950	$1.40	18d	1	1.24mi
28 Park Place Dr Covington, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$1,407	$1.46	2d	9	1.25mi
21096 Washington Ave Unit B Abita Springs, LA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,050	$1.17	44d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2024-12-13
   soldstatus $171,000 Closed 106-char remark

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   GREAT STARTER HOME CLOSE TO ALL AMENITIES. FEATURES 3BR, 2 BTHS, FENCED RER YARD, SHED AND CIRCULAR DRIVE.

2. 2024-11-07
   historical Active Under Contract 106-char remark

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   GREAT STARTER HOME CLOSE TO ALL AMENITIES. FEATURES 3BR, 2 BTHS, FENCED RER YARD, SHED AND CIRCULAR DRIVE.

3. 2024-10-01
   listed $170,000 Active 106-char remark

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   GREAT STARTER HOME CLOSE TO ALL AMENITIES. FEATURES 3BR, 2 BTHS, FENCED RER YARD, SHED AND CIRCULAR DRIVE.

4. 2024-10-01
   listed $170,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (106 chars)

   GREAT STARTER HOME CLOSE TO ALL AMENITIES. FEATURES 3BR, 2 BTHS, FENCED RER YARD, SHED AND CIRCULAR DRIVE.

5. 2016-08-26
   soldstatus $77,072 Sold 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   Great investment property! Home is all original so needs updating. Den has 16ft cathedral ceilings, bookcases framing the fireplace and mantel.

6. 2016-08-03
   historical Pending Continue to Show 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   Great investment property! Home is all original so needs updating. Den has 16ft cathedral ceilings, bookcases framing the fireplace and mantel.

7. 2016-07-30
   listed $90,000 Active 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   Great investment property! Home is all original so needs updating. Den has 16ft cathedral ceilings, bookcases framing the fireplace and mantel.

8. 2016-07-30
   listed $90,000

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   Great investment property! Home is all original so needs updating. Den has 16ft cathedral ceilings, bookcases framing the fireplace and mantel.

9. 2010-03-10
   listed $125,000
10. 2010-03-10
    listed $125,000
11. 2004-08-02
    soldstatus $105,000
12. 2004-07-29
    soldstatus $105,000
13. 2004-05-10
    listed $109,900
14. 2004-05-10
    listed $109,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,697 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,697 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,697
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,695
• − Management: −$1,695
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $784
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$188
• After-tax cash flow: $3,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #3876

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Tammany Parish · 228,296 people
• City population: 64,351
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 41,876
• Household income: $81,241
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1287.0

Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 17% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.14%
• Current HPI: 181.8348
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+55.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-13 Sold (MLS) $171,000 GSREIN
• 2024-11-07 Contingent — GSREIN
• 2024-10-01 Listed $170,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-10-01 Listed $170,000 GSREIN
• 2016-08-26 Sold (MLS) $77,072 GSREIN
• 2016-08-03 Contingent — GSREIN
• 2016-07-30 Listed $90,000 GSREIN
• 2016-07-30 Listed $90,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2010-03-10 Listed $125,000 GSREIN
• 2010-03-10 Listed $125,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2004-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-29 Sold (MLS) $105,000 GSREIN
• 2004-05-10 Listed $109,900 GSREIN
• 2004-05-10 Listed $109,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,697 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.