1633 Long Ave · Pelican Bay, TX 76020

$60,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1966 8,973 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful single wide that has been fully renovated in the Pelican Bay addition. This home has brand new hardwood laminate through out the home as well as all appliances. This is on a nice sized lot with a covered patio and storage shed. Perfect first time home!! Come check out this steal!!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• 8,973 sq ft lot
• Built 1966

Tags

• COVERED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 6.4% in Pelican Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#917 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Azle ISD (suburban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty El (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 466 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 45% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 596 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.77%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $22,279
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.48×
• Total profit: $58,437
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76020

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 596
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $542/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $487

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $549	-5% $532	+0% $515	+5% $498	+10% $481
Rent	-10% $425	-5% $470	+0% $515	+5% $560	+10% $605
Rate	-1.0pp $545	-0.5pp $530	base $515	+0.5pp $499	+1.0pp $483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11124 Liberty School Rd Unit 24B Azle, TX	2.0	2.0	700	$999	$1.43	23d	1	0.57mi
11128 Liberty School Rd Unit 28A Azle, TX	2.0	2.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	25d	1	0.58mi
1021 Timberoaks Dr Azle, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	792	$975	$1.23	0d	16	1.42mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-03-28
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-09
   price $60,000
3. 2025-10-21
   listed $69,000 Active
4. 2025-01-01
   historical $950
5. 2024-10-08
   listed $950
6. 2023-10-03
   historical $900
7. 2023-09-22
   price $900
8. 2023-09-08
   price $950
9. 2023-07-27
   price $1,000
10. 2020-04-23
    soldstatus
11. 2019-08-15
    soldstatus
12. 2014-07-22
    status Pending 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Beautiful single wide that has been fully renovated in the Pelican Bay addition. This home has brand new hardwood laminate through out the home as well as all appliances. This is on a nice sized lot with a covered patio and storage shed. Perfect first time home!! Come check out this steal!!

13. 2010-06-03
    soldstatus Sold 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Beautiful single wide that has been fully renovated in the Pelican Bay addition. This home has brand new hardwood laminate through out the home as well as all appliances. This is on a nice sized lot with a covered patio and storage shed. Perfect first time home!! Come check out this steal!!

14. 2010-06-03
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Beautiful single wide that has been fully renovated in the Pelican Bay addition. This home has brand new hardwood laminate through out the home as well as all appliances. This is on a nice sized lot with a covered patio and storage shed. Perfect first time home!! Come check out this steal!!

15. 2010-05-17
    historical 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Beautiful single wide that has been fully renovated in the Pelican Bay addition. This home has brand new hardwood laminate through out the home as well as all appliances. This is on a nice sized lot with a covered patio and storage shed. Perfect first time home!! Come check out this steal!!

16. 2010-05-10
    listed $19,999 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Beautiful single wide that has been fully renovated in the Pelican Bay addition. This home has brand new hardwood laminate through out the home as well as all appliances. This is on a nice sized lot with a covered patio and storage shed. Perfect first time home!! Come check out this steal!!

17. 2005-05-05
    soldstatus
18. 2003-07-25
    soldstatus
19. 1995-07-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $542 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,098 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$556/yr (+$46/mo · 102.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$542
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,093
• − Management: −$1,093
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $5,530
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,327
• After-tax cash flow: $4,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Azle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809200
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,473
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4900
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pelican Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #917
• US rank: #16376

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pelican Bay, TX
• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,602
• Household income: $87,298
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 433.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.72%
• Current HPI: 287.155
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $60,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $69,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-01 Rental Removed $950 NTREIS
• 2024-10-08 Listed for Rent $950 NTREIS
• 2023-10-03 Rental Removed $900 NTREIS
• 2023-09-22 Price Changed $900 NTREIS
• 2023-09-08 Price Changed $950 NTREIS
• 2023-07-27 Price Changed $1,000 NTREIS
• 2020-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-07-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2010-06-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-06-03 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2010-05-17 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2010-05-10 Listed $19,999 NTREIS
• 2005-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $542 · -12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.