3311 Dahlia Dr · Melissa, TX 75454

$312,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,468 sqft · Other public records · 104 Days on market

Built 2025 4,796 sqft lot $213/sqft · 9% below area Est $353k · 11% under $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21200886 - Built by Impression Homes - Ready Now! ~ This stunning 2025 traditional single-family residence in the desirable Bryant Farms subdivision offers a perfect blend of modern amenities and comfort. With 1,500 square feet of well-designed living space, this home features three bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The open floorplan creates a seamless flow between the living and dining areas, enhanced by luxurious quartz counters, a kitchen island, and a spacious pantry. Enjoy modern conveniences with a smart home system, while central heating and cooling ensure year-round comfort. Additional highlights include a two-car garage and stylish flooring of carpet, ceramic tile, and tile throughout. Located within the acclaimed Melissa ISD, this home is just minutes away from Sumeer Elementary, Melissa Middle School, and Melissa High School. Experience contemporary living in this exceptional property, ready for its new owners.

Key facts

• Spacious pantry
• Open floorplan
• Kitchen island

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• SMART HOME SYSTEM
• CENTRAL HEATING AND COOLING
• STYLISH FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $313k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.8% in Melissa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#477 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Melissa ISD (suburban): math 65% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #24 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 503 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,975 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.32%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,515
• List price: $312,999
• Delta: -11.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-63,738
• Equity at exit: $46,669

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-90,024
• Equity at exit: $27,062

Cash invested: $87,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75454

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 503
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,310 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,641
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,143/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,432

Max offer price $295,981

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $81	-5% $-8	+0% $-96	+5% $-185	+10% $-274
Rent	-10% $-279	-5% $-188	+0% $-96	+5% $-5	+10% $86
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $-17	base $-96	+0.5pp $-177	+1.0pp $-260

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,250
• Closing costs: $9,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3308 Dahlia Dr Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$3,000	$2.04	44d	1	0.02mi
3315 Celestial Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1792	$2,150	$1.20	13d	1	0.04mi
3315 Celestial Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1792	$2,150	$1.20	44d	1	0.04mi
3215 Sedge Grass Dr Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,995	$1.29	2d	1	0.09mi
2011 Winecup Dr Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$2,095	$1.32	44d	1	0.09mi
3227 Shortgrass Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1792	$2,200	$1.23	18d	1	0.11mi
3305 Shortgrass Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,195	$1.19	13d	1	0.11mi
3211 Bedstraw Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$2,100	$1.43	8d	1	0.17mi
3211 Bedstraw Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,099	$1.31	44d	1	0.17mi
3112 Yellow Pine Dr Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,200	$1.23	44d	1	0.19mi
3410 Taas DR Melissa, TX	2.0–3.0	2.5	1653	$2,758	$1.67	2d	18	0.23mi
1616 Milrany Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,999	$1.46	44d	1	0.34mi
2203 Poppy Valley Ln Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1871	$2,395	$1.28	45d	1	0.72mi
2203 Poppy Valley Ln Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1871	$2,395	$1.28	44d	1	0.72mi
3200 Sam Rayburn Hwy Melissa, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$4,424	$4.72	2d	1	0.96mi
2011 Burnwood St Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,895	$1.30	25d	1	1.11mi
2105 Burnwood St Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,050	$1.46	22d	1	1.11mi
4407 Silverweed Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1486	$1,949	$1.31	19d	1	1.14mi
2008 Burnwood St Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,850	$1.30	44d	1	1.14mi
3320 Sam Rayburn Hwy Melissa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$2,080	$2.37	2d	48	1.25mi
4405 Winecup Rd Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,099	$1.49	20d	1	1.25mi
4406 Winecup Rd Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,950	$1.39	3d	1	1.25mi
2128 Meadow Park Dr Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,995	$1.42	44d	1	1.28mi
4523 Firewheel Dr Melissa, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$2,950	$1.84	2d	1	1.37mi
4523 Firewheel Dr Melissa, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$2,199	$1.37	44d	1	1.37mi
2105 Prairie Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$3,276	$2.04	2d	1	1.38mi
2117 Prairie Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,200	$1.44	13d	1	1.38mi
2106 Prairie Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,995	$1.41	44d	1	1.41mi
2116 Prairie Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,995	$1.42	13d	1	1.41mi
2120 Prairie Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,100	$1.43	25d	1	1.42mi
2124 Prairie Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,150	$1.41	25d	1	1.42mi
7221 Mayplace Dr McKinney, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,300	$1.25	25d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $312,999 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $312,999 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $312,999 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $312,999 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $312,999 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $312,999 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $312,999 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $312,999 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $312,999 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $320,999 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,999 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,999 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,999 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,999 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $320,999 940-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    The Cottonwood is a great one-story plan! This home features a coat closet in the entryway and opens to the open-concept family room, dining room, and California kitchen with an island and walk-in pantry. The large owner's suite features a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This home has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom with a linen closet. Enjoy summer BBQs on the covered patio.

16. 2026-05-07
    price $320,999 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    The Cottonwood is a great one-story plan! This home features a coat closet in the entryway and opens to the open-concept family room, dining room, and California kitchen with an island and walk-in pantry. The large owner's suite features a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This home has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom with a linen closet. Enjoy summer BBQs on the covered patio.

17. 2026-04-02
    price $333,999 940-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    The Cottonwood is a great one-story plan! This home features a coat closet in the entryway and opens to the open-concept family room, dining room, and California kitchen with an island and walk-in pantry. The large owner's suite features a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This home has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom with a linen closet. Enjoy summer BBQs on the covered patio.

18. 2026-04-02
    price $333,999 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    The Cottonwood is a great one-story plan! This home features a coat closet in the entryway and opens to the open-concept family room, dining room, and California kitchen with an island and walk-in pantry. The large owner's suite features a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This home has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom with a linen closet. Enjoy summer BBQs on the covered patio.

19. 2026-03-06
    listed $369,448 Active 940-char remark

    Show marketing remark (940 chars)

    MLS# 21200886 - Built by Impression Homes - Ready Now! ~ This stunning 2025 traditional single-family residence in the desirable Bryant Farms subdivision offers a perfect blend of modern amenities and comfort. With 1,500 square feet of well-designed living space, this home features three bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The open floorplan creates a seamless flow between the living and dining areas, enhanced by luxurious quartz counters, a kitchen island, and a spacious pantry. Enjoy modern conveniences with a smart home system, while central heating and cooling ensure year-round comfort. Additional highlights include a two-car garage and stylish flooring of carpet, ceramic tile, and tile throughout. Located within the acclaimed Melissa ISD, this home is just minutes away from Sumeer Elementary, Melissa Middle School, and Melissa High School. Experience contemporary living in this exceptional property, ready for its new owners.

20. 2025-08-09
    status Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    The Cottonwood is a great one-story plan! This home features a coat closet in the entryway and opens to the open-concept family room, dining room, and California kitchen with an island and walk-in pantry. The large owner's suite features a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This home has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom with a linen closet. Enjoy summer BBQs on the covered patio.

21. 2025-08-09
    price $369,448 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    The Cottonwood is a great one-story plan! This home features a coat closet in the entryway and opens to the open-concept family room, dining room, and California kitchen with an island and walk-in pantry. The large owner's suite features a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This home has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom with a linen closet. Enjoy summer BBQs on the covered patio.

22. 2025-08-06
    soldstatus
23. 2024-08-08
    historical 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    The Cottonwood is a great one-story plan! This home features a coat closet in the entryway and opens to the open-concept family room, dining room, and California kitchen with an island and walk-in pantry. The large owner's suite features a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This home has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom with a linen closet. Enjoy summer BBQs on the covered patio.

24. 2024-07-18
    listed $422,285 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    The Cottonwood is a great one-story plan! This home features a coat closet in the entryway and opens to the open-concept family room, dining room, and California kitchen with an island and walk-in pantry. The large owner's suite features a dual vanity sink, walk-in shower, linen closet, and walk-in closet. This home has two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom with a linen closet. Enjoy summer BBQs on the covered patio.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,143 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,728 · $477/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,585/yr (+$382/mo · 401.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,533
• − Property taxes: −$1,143
• − Insurance: −$1,565
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,217
• − Management: −$2,217
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$9,105
• Taxable loss: −$6,712
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,611
• After-tax cash flow: $455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Melissa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830120
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $82,500
• Composite: 58.34/100
• National rank: #1012
• State rank: #24 of 826 in TX

Livability — Melissa

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #477
• US rank: #9595

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 22,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,990
• Household income: $138,827
• Rent vs Own: 11.4% rent · 88.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 246.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.66%
• Current HPI: 235.2508
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $320,999 NTREIS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $320,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $333,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $333,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Listed $369,448 NTREIS
• 2025-08-09 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $369,448 Zillow
• 2025-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-08-08 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-07-18 Listed $422,285 Zillow

Property tax history

-14.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,143 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.