2561 Greenleaf Dr · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31206

$74,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1963 0.33 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BACK ON MARKET AT NO FAULT TO THE SELLER! - Located in a quiet neighborhood, this home offers a fantastic opportunity for both homeowners and investors alike. This charming home is full of potential and ready for someone with vision to bring it back to life, making it the perfect canvas to create your dream space or your next profitable project. With a few major upgrades already completed, including a newer 2023 HVAC system and a 2021 roof, some big-ticket items are already completed, allowing you to focus primarily on customizing the interior to your style. Whether you’re a homeowner looking to make it truly your own or an investor seeking a solid property with upside, this TLC prope

Key facts

• 2021 roof
• Quiet neighborhood
• Newer hvac system

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM
• 2021 ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community features available

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (other); Other utilities
• Home design: One-level home
• Construction: Concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Property listed as fixer
• Exterior features: Front porch; Other exterior features; Other structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Other kitchen features; Other appliances
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Other bedroom features
• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; Main-level full and half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No shared/common walls; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $583 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Southfield Elementary School (math 5% / reading 6%, grade F, #1,158 of 1,228 statewide, top 94%, 737 students, 100% FRL); Weaver Middle School (math 5% / reading 12%, grade F, #439 of 470 statewide, top 94%, 909 students, 100% FRL); Southwest High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #365 of 424 statewide, top 88%, 800 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 75% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 207 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,346/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 1335% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.35%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,912
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4241 Pinedale Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-5%)	6mo	$129,000	$82	67
2560 Anderson Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,628 (-2%)	13mo	$123,000	$76	60
4357 Essex Rd	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,533 (-7%)	2mo	$106,500	$69	59
2435 Thrasher Ave	0.36mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,428 (-14%)	1mo	$67,500	$47	52
2310 Price Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-9%)	2mo	$180,000	$120	48
2521 Rocky Creek Rd	0.42mi	3/3.0	1,900 (+15%)	3mo	$200,000	$105	45
2325 Silver Pines Dr	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,440 (-13%)	11mo	$162,000	$113	40
2330 Price Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-14%)	16mo	$173,000	$121	31
2818 Virginia Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-13%)	14mo	$147,000	$102	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $27,790
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.00×
• Total profit: $83,991
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31206

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,346 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $680/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $583

Break-even live

Break-even rent $608

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $625	-5% $604	+0% $583	+5% $562	+10% $540
Rent	-10% $477	-5% $530	+0% $583	+5% $636	+10% $689
Rate	-1.0pp $621	-0.5pp $602	base $583	+0.5pp $563	+1.0pp $544

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4386 Thrasher Cir Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,400	$1.25	44d	1	0.06mi
5962 Bloomfield Rd Macon, GA	4.0	1.5	1159	$1,300	$1.12	14d	1	0.17mi
4471 Elkan Ave Macon, GA	4.0	2.0	1128	$1,495	$1.33	44d	1	0.20mi
2665 Chatsworth Ct Macon, GA	3.0	1.5	1056	$1,175	$1.11	44d	1	0.26mi
4685 Pinedale Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.5	1404	$1,450	$1.03	14d	1	0.33mi
2423 Thrasher Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1056	$725	$0.69	44d	1	0.41mi
2418 Adger Rd Macon, GA	4.0	1.0	1365	$1,500	$1.10	44d	1	0.46mi
4455 Fairfax Dr Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,225	$0.91	44d	1	0.48mi
4278 Vinson Ave Macon, GA	4.0	2.0	1104	$1,550	$1.40	21d	1	0.48mi
2427 Vivian Dr Macon, GA	4.0	1.0	1056	$1,150	$1.09	44d	1	0.49mi
4300 Essex Rd Macon, GA	4.0	1.5	1246	$1,450	$1.16	21d	1	0.60mi
5487 Bloomfield Rd Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	21d	1	0.62mi
2916 Walmar Dr Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,275	$0.98	44d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $74,900 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $74,900 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-05-23
   status Active
4. 2026-03-30
   status Active
5. 2026-03-18
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2026-02-24
   price $74,900
7. 2026-02-24
   price $74,900
8. 2026-01-20
   listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $680 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $689 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$9/yr (+$1/mo · 1.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$680
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,292
• − Management: −$1,292
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $6,141
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,474
• After-tax cash flow: $5,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• County: Bibb County · 164,332 people
• City population: 143,186
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 24,310
• Household income: $30,042
• Rent vs Own: 56.5% rent · 43.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1335.0

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 76% White 12% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.17%
• Current HPI: 148.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Relisted — FMLS
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — FMLS
• 2026-03-18 Contingent — FMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $74,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $74,900 FMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $79,900 FMLS

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $680 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.