3301 Buchanan Rd #85 · Antioch, CA 94509

$117,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 715 sqft · Manufactured · 63 Days on market

Good condition $164/sqft · at area comps Est $117k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a cozy, updated, and affordable place to call home? Look no further! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home with an extra bonus room perfect for a home office or gym has just hit the market! Fresh renovations and modern updates perfect for families looking to make it their own with all move in ready touches! Whether you're starting fresh or looking to downsize, this cute and cozy space is ready to welcome you! Chateau Mobile home park is a family park that offers a community pool, club house to all residents. Close to shopping centers, banks, Bart and nearby freeway access.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Bonus room
• Club house

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUB HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $117k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $940 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $117k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $809 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,980 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.45%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,982
• List price: $117,000
• Delta: 0.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3301 Buchanan Rd #76	0.01mi	2/1.0	800 (+12%)	11mo	$70,000	$88	71
3301 Buchanan Rd #89	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	800 (+12%)	2mo	$165,000	$206	70
3301 Buchanan Rd #68	0.00mi	2/2.0	760 (+6%)	19mo	$110,000	$145	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $36,798
• Equity at exit: $17,445

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $92,820
• Equity at exit: $10,116

Cash invested: $32,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94509

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,214 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$614
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$146 /mo · $1,755/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $940

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,023

Max offer price $117,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,250
• Closing costs: $3,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3101 Buchanan Rd Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$2,295	$2.74	1d	4	0.12mi
2811 Cadiz Ln Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	715	$1,962	$2.74	21d	1	0.42mi
2811 Cadiz Ln Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	803	$2,023	$2.52	1d	1	0.42mi
2800 Gentrytown Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,845	$2.54	2d	9	0.51mi
2201 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	686	$2,437	$3.55	1d	8	0.78mi
2301 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	716	$2,180	$3.04	1d	22	1.01mi
2201 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,922	$1.89	1d	10	1.07mi
2205 E Leland Rd Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,359	$2.79	1d	20	1.09mi
2200 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	777	$1,917	$2.47	2d	12	1.15mi
2725 Del Oro Cir Antioch, CA	1.0	1.0	580	$1,795	$3.09	11d	1	1.24mi
1600 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	838	$2,554	$3.05	1d	8	1.43mi
500 Loveridge Cir Pittsburg, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	825	$2,430	$2.95	1d	10	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $117,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $117,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $117,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $117,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $117,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $117,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $117,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $117,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $117,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $117,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $117,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $117,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $117,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $117,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $117,000 Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    Looking for a cozy, updated, and affordable place to call home? Look no further! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home with an extra bonus room perfect for a home office or gym has just hit the market! Fresh renovations and modern updates perfect for families looking to make it their own with all move in ready touches! Whether you're starting fresh or looking to downsize, this cute and cozy space is ready to welcome you! Chateau Mobile home park is a family park that offers a community pool, club house to all residents. Close to shopping centers, banks, Bart and nearby freeway access.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,554
• − Property taxes: −$1,755
• − Insurance: −$585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,125
• − Management: −$2,125
• − Depreciation: −$3,404
• Taxable income: $10,019
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,405
• After-tax cash flow: $8,881/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 2-bedroom mobile home is move-in ready with modern updates and a cozy atmosphere. Freshly painted and well-maintained, it's an ideal choice for families or downsizers looking for a turnkey living space.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Replace blinds — Improves light control and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace blinds — Improves light control and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 116,477
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,090
• Household income: $86,196
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 25% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -477.30%
• Current HPI: 309.3499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $117,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR