728 Watts Hl · Lugoff, SC 29045

$165,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1960 2.02 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great starter home or perfect for downsizing, nestled on 2 acres with plenty of room to roam, bring the chickens or cultivate your dream garden. This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home features a cozy living room with a fireplace and a spacious kitchen ideal for everyday living. The primary bedroom includes a private half bath, while two additional bedrooms share a full hall bath. Enjoy outdoor living with a welcoming front porch and a side-entry deck. Got a boat or farm equipment? There's a shed waiting just for you! This property offers both comfort and accessibility, conveniently located less than 20 minutes to Northeast Columbia’s shopping and dining and less than 10 minutes to I-20. Low Ke

Key facts

• Cozy living room
• Private half bath
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• 2 ACRES
• COZY LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PRIVATE HALF BATH
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-story/main-level living
• Construction: Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior finish; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Formica countertops; Painted cabinets; Vinyl flooring; Ceiling fan; Free-standing smooth-surface range (self-cleaning); Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level with private bath, ceiling fan, walk-in closet, and carpeted floors; Second bedroom on main level with shared bath, tub/shower, ceiling fan, private closet, and carpeted floors; Third bedroom on main level with shared bath, tub/shower, ceiling fan, private closet, and carpeted floors
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms and living areas; Vinyl flooring in kitchen
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wall-mounted cooling units
• Interior features: Built-in bookcase; Ceiling fans throughout; Box ceilings in living room; Crown/trim molding; Fireplace with wood-burning insert; Self-cleaning smooth-surface free-standing range; Refrigerator included
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry in closet; Heated laundry space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $734 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#47 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Kershaw 01 (rural): math 38% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #25 of 80 in SC (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wateree Elementary (math 51% / reading 51%, grade C-, #158 of 597 statewide, top 27%, 732 students, 72% FRL); Lugoff-Elgin High (math 65% / reading 89%, grade A-, #28 of 196 statewide, top 16%, 1,744 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 49% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 44% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Kershaw 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 491 units permitted in Kershaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kershaw County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.05%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $19,264
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $74,000
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29045

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,161 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $478/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $734

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,233

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Sedge Ct Elgin, SC	4.0	2.0	1576	$2,099	$1.33	3d	1	0.89mi
89 Smokewood Dr Elgin, SC	3.0	2.0	1840	$2,129	$1.16	3d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   historical Active - Contingent
3. 2026-04-29
   listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $478 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $940 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$463/yr (+$39/mo · 96.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,935
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$478
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,075
• − Management: −$2,075
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $6,440
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,546
• After-tax cash flow: $7,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kershaw 01
• NCES district ID: 4502550
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,585
• Composite: 37.66/100
• National rank: #4371
• State rank: #25 of 80 in SC

Livability — Lugoff

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #6636

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kershaw County · 47,655 people
• City population: 16,283
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 31,372
• Household income: $87,366
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 204.0

Population outlook (Kershaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,683 people
• By 2030: 69,374 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 71,936 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 73,292 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 75,762 · +11.9%
• By 2100: 72,620 · +7.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kershaw

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.3% · R 63.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+23.1 2016: R+24.8 2012: R+18.6 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.60%
• Current HPI: 209.2469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-05-01 Contingent — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $165,000 Consolidated MLS

Property tax history

+19.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $478 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.