17 S Flag Dr · Poinciana, FL 34759

$239,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,218 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1973 7,710 sqft lot Est $269k · 11% under $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious single-story home with an open layout, vaulted ceilings, and abundant natural light throughout. Enjoy a generously sized fenced backyard with an above-ground pool—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The covered patio offers additional outdoor living space ideal for year-round Florida living. Interior features include tile flooring in all areas, a functional kitchen layout, and comfortable living and dining spaces. Property offers great potential for personalization and updates. Conveniently located within minutes to shopping, including Walmart, with easy access to major roads, dining, and everyday conveniences.

Key facts

• Covered entryway
• Privacy fencing
• Expansive green lawn

Tags

• EXPANSIVE GREEN LAWN
• ABOVE-GROUND POOL
• COVERED ENTRYWAY
• WIDE DRIVEWAY
• PRIVACY FENCING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Total lot size about 0.18 acres; Above-ground pool noted
• HOA & community: HOA required with monthly fee of $100 (includes grounds maintenance); Association approval required; Community features include playground, sidewalks, and street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space); Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces south; Residential property
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built with living area of approximately 1218 sq ft
• Exterior features: French doors; Lighting; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Above-ground private pool; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,356 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.52%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $269,178
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 S Flag Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,218 (0%)	1mo	$170,000	$140	99
20 S Flag Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,262 (+4%)	13mo	$190,000	$151	71
6 Spoon Pl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,278 (+5%)	23mo	$210,000	$164	65
729 Harland Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-5%)	4mo	$255,000	$221	63
8 Amalfi Way	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	20mo	$296,500	$241	60
854 Mendoza Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,159 (-5%)	12mo	$263,000	$227	51
515 Pine Top Pl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,182 (-3%)	22mo	$295,000	$250	45
606 Heraldo Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,351 (+11%)	15mo	$230,000	$170	38
712 Leonardo Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,044 (-14%)	12mo	$265,000	$254	36
749 Leonardo Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,053 (-14%)	20mo	$200,000	$190	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-32,198
• Equity at exit: $52,469

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-34,748
• Equity at exit: $50,565

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,944 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,944/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,051

Max offer price $224,950

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
822 E Flag Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$2,500	$2.05	3d	1	0.24mi
105 Alcala Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,519	$1.17	8d	1	0.44mi
San Remo Ct Poinciana, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1181	$1,671	$1.41	2d	15	0.51mi
111 Cassino Way Unit D Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$2,300	$1.82	24d	1	0.58mi
56 Cordona Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,650	$1.19	20d	1	0.58mi
569 Pinehurst Cv Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1396	$1,800	$1.29	3d	1	0.82mi
569 Pinehurst Cv Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1396	$1,800	$1.29	20d	1	0.82mi
571 Hunter Cir Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,500	$1.45	24d	1	1.02mi
618 Royalty Ct Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	24d	1	1.06mi
671 Royalty Ct Unit A Poinciana, FL	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,600	$1.23	8d	1	1.09mi
437 Short Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,715	$1.34	3d	1	1.10mi
330 Dundee Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	23d	1	1.11mi
324 Clearwater Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,800	$1.35	3d	1	1.14mi
544 Imperial Pl Poinciana, FL	2.0	2.0	949	$1,550	$1.63	24d	1	1.18mi
586 Imperial Pl Unit 588 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	962	$1,545	$1.61	11d	1	1.18mi
546 Imperial Pl Unit 548 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,700	$1.38	24d	1	1.20mi
312 Clearwater Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,825	$1.27	23d	1	1.21mi
375 Messina Way Kissimmee, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1070	$1,676	$1.57	3d	31	1.24mi
309 Clermont Dr Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	24d	1	1.29mi
526 Kilimanjaro Dr Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	24d	1	1.30mi
542 Kilimanjaro Dr Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,600	$1.32	24d	1	1.38mi
319 Baccarat Ct Unit A Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,375	$1.26	24d	1	1.40mi
651 Cotulla Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,629	$1.39	8d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,999 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $239,999 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,999 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,999 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $244,999 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,999 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,999 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $249,999 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,999 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $244,999 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $244,999 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,944 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,992 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$48/yr (+$4/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,944
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$5,179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,243
• After-tax cash flow: $221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+690.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $244,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2026-05-11 Sold (MLS) $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-31 Sold (MLS) $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-25 Listed $141,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2008-06-13 Sold (MLS) $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-11 Listed $89,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 1979-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,944 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.