411 Essex Ln · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$374,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Other · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 7,037 sqft lot $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Gus floorplan by Dreambuilt Homes! This home is located in Iron Horse in the desirable Frenship ISD. This home features 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a 2 car garage. This stunning home features an open and inviting ambiance. The kitchen is equipped with a large island, making it an ideal space for cooking and entertaining. The spacious master bedroom boasts a luxurious en-suite bathroom with double vanities, and a walk-in closet. One of the most exceptional features of this home is the covered patio, providing the perfect place to outdoor space to enjoy. Don't miss the chance to make this your HOME SWEET HOME!

Key facts

• Iron horse
• Gus floorplan
• Covered patio

Tags

• GUS FLOORPLAN
• IRON HORSE
• FRENSHIP ISD
• LARGE ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $300 annual fee (about $25/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 3 garage spaces
• Utilities: Paved road access
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; New construction / Under construction
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Landscaped lot; Fenced backyard; Covered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Double vanities; Kitchen island; Living room fireplace

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $374k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-648 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (30.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (47.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (47.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bennett El (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #300 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 876 students, 43% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($368k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $197,207 (47.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.43%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $162,210
• Equity at exit: $336,929

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $509,738
• Equity at exit: $726,600

Cash invested: $104,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,972 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,961
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $767/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-648

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,792

Max offer price $259,511

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,500
• Closing costs: $11,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1218 Preston TRL Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,500	$1.06	21d	1	0.22mi
816 N 4th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,100	$1.20	43d	1	0.23mi
132 Calvin Dr Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1652	$2,300	$1.39	13d	1	0.31mi
1224 Donald Preston Dr Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,550	$1.11	43d	1	0.37mi
1216 Donald Preston Dr Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	43d	1	0.37mi
1019 Donald Preston Dr Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,275	$0.91	43d	1	0.42mi
1019 Donald Preston Dr Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,275	$0.91	21d	1	0.42mi
1517 Westminister Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,600	$1.03	13d	1	0.59mi
7811 86th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,025	$1.18	21d	1	0.67mi
7729 92nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	1810	$2,495	$1.38	21d	1	1.11mi
7619 59th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	2271	$2,695	$1.19	13d	1	1.13mi
213 Wildcat St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	2811	$2,800	$1.00	13d	1	1.15mi
209 Sooner St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,875	$0.96	43d	1	1.19mi
5865 Virginia Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,749	$1.17	43d	1	1.25mi
6003 Venita Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	43d	1	1.29mi
7732 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	21d	1	1.30mi
7811 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$2,195	$1.13	21d	1	1.30mi
7805 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,150	$1.14	43d	1	1.31mi
7729 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1978	$2,300	$1.16	13d	1	1.33mi
7731 97th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	21d	1	1.38mi
127 Brooke Blvd Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,757	$1.03	13d	2	1.42mi
328 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,450	$1.20	13d	1	1.42mi
405 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,450	$1.31	13d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $374,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $374,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $374,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    remarks 631-char remark
11. 2026-06-05
    listed $374,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $767 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,844 · $570/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,077/yr (+$506/mo · 792.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,950
• − Property taxes: −$767
• − Insurance: −$1,870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,893
• − Management: −$1,893
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$10,880
• Taxable loss: −$14,888
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,573
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $374,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records