23907 Conefall Ct · Spring, TX 77373

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,715 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1978 0.35 ac lot $104/sqft · 17% below area Est $215k · 17% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Spring one-story offers a fireplace, a master bedroom walk-in closet, and a two-car garage. A community pool and a playground are part of the HOA.

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Massive backyard
• Oversized lot

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• OVERSIZED LOT
• MASSIVE BACKYARD
• GENEROUS LIVING AREAS
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $300 covering common areas and recreation facilities; Community association present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 1978; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Cul-de-sac lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 20); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 9)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Tub with shower; Kitchen/dining combo; Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smith El (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 532 students, 84% FRL); Twin Creeks Middle (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 973 students, 83% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 603 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.03%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,589
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -16.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23710 Prairie Bird Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,789 (+4%)	8mo	$185,000	$103	68
2514 Spring Day Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-4%)	10mo	$215,000	$130	68
23918 Spring Mill Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,748 (+2%)	21mo	$225,000	$129	66
23715 Farm Hill Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,660 (-3%)	15mo	$189,000	$114	64
23803 Ironside Rd	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,822 (+6%)	14mo	$250,000	$137	62
23611 Blodgett Peak Trl	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+2%)	24mo	$275,000	$157	56
23819 Creek Ridge Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,878 (+10%)	7mo	$210,000	$112	50
23614 Summer Pine Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,467 (-14%)	12mo	$240,000	$164	46
23538 Canyon Lake Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (-10%)	1mo	$109,000	$71	45
2306 Juniper Hedge Cir	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,634 (-5%)	15mo	$266,990	$163	45
23510 Treeline Bluff Trl	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,892 (+10%)	20mo	$275,000	$145	42
2619 Ski Lodge Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,958 (+14%)	11mo	$265,000	$135	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-19,587
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-21,929
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 603
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,347 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$564 /mo · $6,765/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,028

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $353	-5% $302	+0% $252	+5% $201	+10% $150
Rent	-10% $66	-5% $159	+0% $252	+5% $344	+10% $437
Rate	-1.0pp $342	-0.5pp $297	base $252	+0.5pp $205	+1.0pp $158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 561-char remark
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $179,000 Active 561-char remark
3. 2019-04-30
   soldstatus
4. 2019-04-24
   soldstatus Sold 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   This Spring one-story offers a fireplace, a master bedroom walk-in closet, and a two-car garage. A community pool and a playground are part of the HOA.

5. 2019-03-24
   status Pending 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   This Spring one-story offers a fireplace, a master bedroom walk-in closet, and a two-car garage. A community pool and a playground are part of the HOA.

6. 2019-03-15
   status Active 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   This Spring one-story offers a fireplace, a master bedroom walk-in closet, and a two-car garage. A community pool and a playground are part of the HOA.

7. 2019-02-21
   status Pending 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   This Spring one-story offers a fireplace, a master bedroom walk-in closet, and a two-car garage. A community pool and a playground are part of the HOA.

8. 2019-02-07
   price $164,000 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   This Spring one-story offers a fireplace, a master bedroom walk-in closet, and a two-car garage. A community pool and a playground are part of the HOA.

9. 2019-01-17
   price $166,000 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   This Spring one-story offers a fireplace, a master bedroom walk-in closet, and a two-car garage. A community pool and a playground are part of the HOA.

10. 2018-12-23
    listed $168,000 Active 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    This Spring one-story offers a fireplace, a master bedroom walk-in closet, and a two-car garage. A community pool and a playground are part of the HOA.

11. 2018-12-14
    soldstatus
12. 1998-08-05
    soldstatus
13. 1993-05-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,765 · $564/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,765 · $564/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$6,765
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,253
• − Management: −$2,253
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $460
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$110
• After-tax cash flow: $2,911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+6.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2019-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-04-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-03-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-03-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-02-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-02-07 Price Changed $164,000 HARMLS
• 2019-01-17 Price Changed $166,000 HARMLS
• 2018-12-23 Listed $168,000 HARMLS
• 2018-12-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,765 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.