629 Forrest St · New Castle, PA 16101

$39,800

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1935 4,486 sqft lot $27/sqft · 61% below area ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all investors. This home has large rooms such as the kitchen, living room and a bedroom. Upstairs is a full bathroom with three additional bedrooms. Detached garage, low taxes.

Key facts

• 4,486 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1935

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $795 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.3% vs local median 8.9% in New Castle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#137 in PA, #1,120 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F.
• New Castle Area SD (town): math 9% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #519 of 539 in PA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+20.1%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $275 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $37,412 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.57%
• DSCR: 4.81
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,088
• List price: $39,800
• Delta: -61.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
722 Chestnut St	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,428 (-1%)	4mo	$75,000	$53	87
505 Spruce St	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,564 (+8%)	0mo	$35,000	$22	77
916 Marshall Ave	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,440 (-1%)	3mo	$60,001	$42	73
709 Brooklyn Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,570 (+8%)	4mo	$40,000	$25	61
421 E Lutton St	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,380 (-5%)	6mo	$66,000	$48	61
901 Franklin Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,636 (+13%)	6mo	$65,000	$40	60
1203 Cunningham Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,328 (-8%)	3mo	$25,000	$19	56
1307 Huron Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,320 (-9%)	2mo	$86,000	$65	53
428 E Division St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,260 (-13%)	6mo	$60,000	$48	53
938 Adams St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,344 (-7%)	6mo	$68,000	$51	51
1308 Cunningham Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,288 (-11%)	1mo	$25,000	$19	49
506 E Long Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,280 (-12%)	2mo	$9,500	$7	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 91.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $51,478
• Equity at exit: $5,934

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.7%
• Equity multiple: 13.86×
• Total profit: $143,276
• Equity at exit: $3,441

Cash invested: $11,144 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16101

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 20.1%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,378 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $795

Break-even live

Break-even rent $372

Max offer price $39,800

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $817	-5% $806	+0% $795	+5% $783	+10% $772
Rent	-10% $686	-5% $740	+0% $795	+5% $849	+10% $904
Rate	-1.0pp $815	-0.5pp $805	base $795	+0.5pp $784	+1.0pp $774

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,950
• Closing costs: $1,194
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
932 Morton St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,375	$0.95	45d	1	0.36mi
1112 Williams St New Castle, PA	2.0	1.0	1026	$1,400	$1.36	45d	1	0.53mi
712 E Reynolds St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1182	$975	$0.82	45d	1	0.58mi
1056 Adams St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,500	$1.34	45d	1	0.76mi
1510 Huron Ave New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1560	$1,475	$0.95	45d	1	0.86mi
503 Galbreath St New Castle, PA	2.0	1.0	1228	$1,295	$1.05	45d	1	0.92mi
1605 S Jefferson St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	45d	1	1.17mi
1708 Moravia St New Castle, PA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,800 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,800 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,800 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,800 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,800 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,800 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,800 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,800 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,800 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,800 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,800 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,800 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,800 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,800 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,800 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,800 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $39,800 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Calling all investors. This home has large rooms such as the kitchen, living room and a bedroom. Upstairs is a full bathroom with three additional bedrooms. Detached garage, low taxes.

18. 2026-03-24
    listed $43,800 Active 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Calling all investors. This home has large rooms such as the kitchen, living room and a bedroom. Upstairs is a full bathroom with three additional bedrooms. Detached garage, low taxes.

19. 2026-02-21
    historical Expired 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Investor Special! Spacious home with great potential. The first floor features a large living room, generous kitchen space, and one bedroom. Upstairs, you'll find a full bathroom and three additional sizable bedrooms. With large rooms throughout, this property is a great opportunity for rental income or renovation.

20. 2026-01-20
    status Active 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Investor Special! Spacious home with great potential. The first floor features a large living room, generous kitchen space, and one bedroom. Upstairs, you'll find a full bathroom and three additional sizable bedrooms. With large rooms throughout, this property is a great opportunity for rental income or renovation.

21. 2025-11-10
    status Pending 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Investor Special! Spacious home with great potential. The first floor features a large living room, generous kitchen space, and one bedroom. Upstairs, you'll find a full bathroom and three additional sizable bedrooms. With large rooms throughout, this property is a great opportunity for rental income or renovation.

22. 2025-08-22
    listed $35,800 Active 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Investor Special! Spacious home with great potential. The first floor features a large living room, generous kitchen space, and one bedroom. Upstairs, you'll find a full bathroom and three additional sizable bedrooms. With large rooms throughout, this property is a great opportunity for rental income or renovation.

23. 2025-07-25
    historical Expired
24. 2025-07-21
    status Active
25. 2025-06-30
    historical Contingent
26. 2025-06-06
    price $35,800
27. 2025-06-01
    status Active
28. 2025-05-24
    historical Contingent
29. 2025-05-14
    price $36,800
30. 2025-04-02
    status Active
31. 2025-03-29
    status Pending
32. 2025-03-20
    price $39,900
33. 2024-11-25
    price $46,500
34. 2024-10-15
    price $47,600
35. 2024-07-26
    listed $43,600 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $825 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $825 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,229
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$199
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,323
• − Management: −$1,323
• − Depreciation: −$1,158
• Taxable income: $9,480
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,275
• After-tax cash flow: $7,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Castle Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4216620
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -23.00%
• Median HH income: $30,967
• Composite: 11.08/100
• National rank: #9736
• State rank: #519 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Castle

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #1120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Castle, PA
• County: Lawrence County · 30,767 people
• City population: 30,767
• Metro: New Castle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 30,767
• Household income: $51,128
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,781 people
• By 2030: 77,978 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 69,522 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 61,344 · -25.0%
• By 2075: 45,027 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 31,305 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.8% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.77%
• Current HPI: 159.3091
• Rent YoY: ▲ 20.05%
• Metro: New Castle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $39,800 West Penn MLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $43,800 West Penn MLS
• 2026-02-21 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2026-01-20 Relisted — West Penn MLS
• 2025-11-10 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $35,800 West Penn MLS
• 2025-07-25 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2025-07-21 Relisted — West Penn MLS
• 2025-06-30 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $35,800 West Penn MLS
• 2025-06-01 Relisted — West Penn MLS
• 2025-05-24 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $36,800 West Penn MLS
• 2025-04-02 Relisted — West Penn MLS
• 2025-03-29 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $39,900 West Penn MLS
• 2024-11-25 Price Changed $46,500 West Penn MLS
• 2024-10-15 Price Changed $47,600 West Penn MLS
• 2024-07-26 Listed $43,600 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $825 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.