Dowing Plan · Seguin, TX 78155

$229,299

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 92 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 91 days

🏗️ New construction. The $229,299 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $274,612.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-329 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oralia R Rodriguez El (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 475 students, 83% FRL); Briesemeister Middle (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 725 students, 77% FRL); Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1603 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,575 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.14%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,612
• List price: $229,299
• Delta: -16.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
736 Canyon Run	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	4mo	$205,999	$111	85
3553 Canyon Rdg	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	4mo	$218,999	$118	82
3577 Sky Pl	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	1mo	$223,999	$121	81
3568 Canyon Rdg	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	4mo	$237,999	$129	80
3557 Canyon Rdg	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,885 (+2%)	2mo	$213,999	$114	78
3548 Canyon Rdg	0.31mi	4/2.5	1,922 (+4%)	2mo	$221,999	$116	75
3565 Sky Pl	0.35mi	4/2.5	1,922 (+4%)	1mo	$214,999	$112	75
3561 Sky Pl	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	0mo	$197,999	$118	68
3556 Canyon Rdg	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	2mo	$200,999	$120	67
3569 Sky Pl	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	1mo	$196,999	$118	67
3572 Canyon Rdg	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	3mo	$189,999	$113	65
3580 Canyon Rdg	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	4mo	$210,999	$126	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-67,326
• Equity at exit: $40,946

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-93,136
• Equity at exit: $23,743

Cash invested: $76,891 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 19 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.9 mo (25%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $230,299 ($129/sqft)
• Median days on market: 92 d
• This list price: 47% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1603
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,440
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$343 /mo · $4,119/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,402

Max offer price $226,999

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-139	-5% $-234	+0% $-329	+5% $-424	+10% $-519
Rent	-10% $-486	-5% $-407	+0% $-329	+5% $-251	+10% $-172
Rate	-1.0pp $-191	-0.5pp $-259	base $-329	+0.5pp $-400	+1.0pp $-473

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,653
• Closing costs: $8,238
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3209 Ridge Pl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,700	$1.25	93d	1	0.10mi
3572 Canyon Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$1,700	$1.01	46d	1	0.38mi
1015 Reiley Rd Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$2,495	$1.52	24d	1	0.76mi
358 Lake Placid Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$2,800	$1.55	93d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1850Located at 3400 Canyon Rdg, Seguin TX 78155List price available (active listing)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan named DowingSingle-family property (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Open living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $229,299 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $229,299 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $229,299 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $229,299 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $229,299 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $229,299 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $229,299 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   pricedays on market $229,299 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $228,999 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $228,999 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $228,999 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $228,999 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $228,999 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $228,999 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $228,999 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $228,999 Active 71 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $228,999 Active 70 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $228,999 Active 69 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $228,999 Active 68 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $228,999 Active 67 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $228,999 Active 66 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $228,999 Active 65 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $228,999 Active 64 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $228,999 Active 63 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    price $228,999 Active 62 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $229,999 Active 62 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    price $228,999 Active 60 DOM
28. 2026-07-07
    days on market $227,999 Active 60 DOM
29. 2026-07-06
    days on market $227,999 Active 59 DOM
30. 2026-07-05
    pricedays on market $227,999 Active 58 DOM
31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $226,999 Active 56 DOM
32. 2026-07-02
    price $226,999 Active 55 DOM
33. 2026-07-02
    days on market $225,999 Active 55 DOM
34. 2026-07-01
    days on market $225,999 Active 54 DOM
35. 2026-06-30
    days on market $225,999 Active 53 DOM
36. 2026-06-29
    days on market $225,999 Active 52 DOM
37. 2026-06-28
    days on market $225,999 Active 51 DOM
38. 2026-06-27
    days on market $225,999 Active 50 DOM
39. 2026-06-26
    days on market $225,999 Active 49 DOM
40. 2026-06-24
    days on market $225,999 Active 47 DOM
41. 2026-06-22
    days on market $225,999 Active 45 DOM
42. 2026-06-21
    days on market $225,999 Active 44 DOM
43. 2026-06-18
    days on market $225,999 Active 41 DOM
44. 2026-06-17
    days on market $225,999 Active 40 DOM
45. 2026-06-16
    days on market $225,999 Active 39 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $225,999 Active 36 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $225,999 Active 32 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,999 Active 31 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,999 Active 30 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,999 Active 27 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,383
• − Property taxes: −$4,119
• − Insurance: −$1,373
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,906
• − Management: −$1,906
• − Depreciation: −$7,989
• Taxable loss: −$8,847
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,123
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,250–$27,750 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern and inviting interior. It offers a spacious open-concept layout and is move-in ready with minor cosmetic improvements that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Freshens up the interior and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Updating bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathroom and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oralia R Rodriguez El F TX #2,668/4,322 Nat'l #27,846/41,679 Middle Briesemeister Middle F TX #1,445/1,662 Nat'l #11,801/14,009 High Seguin H S F TX #1,011/1,632 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1850Located at 3400 Canyon Rdg, Seguin TX 78155List price available (active listing)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan named DowingSingle-family property (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Open living area