8424 Regal Way · Ellenton, FL 34221

$289,700

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 447 Days on market

Built 2004 5,706 sqft lot Est $232k · 25% over $171/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare Find in Imperial Lakes Estates – Furnished 3-Bedroom Home with Expanded Parking Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, offered fully furnished and ready for you to move right in. What truly sets this property apart is the exceptional parking—a 2-car extended garage plus a 2-car carport, providing ample room for vehicles, storage, or hobbies. Step inside to a spacious living room with soaring triple tray ceilings that create an open and inviting atmosphere. The galley-style kitchen, complete with a cozy breakfast nook, is the perfect place to enjoy your morning coffee or casual meals. The generous owner’s suite offers a relaxing retreat, wh

Key facts

• 2 car carport
• Brand new roof
• Two heated pools

Tags

• 2 CAR EXTENDED GARAGE
• 2 CAR CARPORT
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• PRIVATE SCREENED LANAI
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• TWO HEATED POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual fees reported; Property type: Residential
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Association name: Imperial Lakes Manager/ Sunvast Management); Monthly HOA approximately $171.33 (Quarterly fee of $514); Association fee includes cable TV, common area taxes, pool, internet, recreational facilities; Association amenities include clubhouse, gated community, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard, tennis courts; Buyer approval required for association; Pets allowed (max 25 lbs); Senior community; Furnished: Yes

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available and connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; One level; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built in (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Paved road access; Private maintained road; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Indoor laundry in a laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($675/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1170 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 447 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $290k implies a 1014% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,677 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 447 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.83%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $231,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8418 Regal Way	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	9mo	$285,000	$170	91
8409 Imperial Cir	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,701 (+1%)	10mo	$234,000	$138	81
8521 Countess Avenue Cir	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,596 (-5%)	2mo	$235,000	$147	77
8534 Countess Avenue Cir	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (+1%)	4mo	$230,000	$136	75
8485 Imperial Cir	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,592 (-5%)	3mo	$160,000	$101	72
8434 Imperial Cir	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-9%)	7mo	$187,500	$122	71
8466 Imperial Cir	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,502 (-11%)	4mo	$180,000	$120	63
8439 Imperial Cir	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-12%)	9mo	$265,000	$179	62
8404 Imperial Cir #8404	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (-12%)	12mo	$265,000	$179	60
8400 Princess Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	4mo	$185,000	$127	59
8308 Princess Ct	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-13%)	3mo	$180,000	$124	55
8523 Countess Avenue Cir	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,431 (-15%)	5mo	$207,500	$145	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-50,718
• Equity at exit: $43,195

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-67,984
• Equity at exit: $25,048

Cash invested: $81,116 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1170
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,507 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,519
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,358/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$171
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,436

Max offer price $289,700

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $220	-5% $138	+0% $56	+5% $-26	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-43	+0% $56	+5% $155	+10% $254
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $130	base $56	+0.5pp $-19	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,425
• Closing costs: $8,691
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8132 Tea Olive Ter Palmetto, FL	4.0	3.0	1698	$2,500	$1.47	25d	1	0.33mi
8960 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,650	$1.34	25d	1	0.62mi
7122 87th Ln E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1593	$2,750	$1.73	25d	1	0.83mi
9650 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,342	$2.23	25d	99	0.83mi
5871 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,185	$1.46	23d	1	1.06mi
4117 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,466	$1.70	23d	1	1.06mi
7127 48th Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2113	$1,800	$0.85	25d	1	1.12mi
6210 Terra Lago Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,405	$2.37	5d	50	1.15mi
9117 Optimist Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1489	$2,200	$1.48	25d	1	1.16mi
4014 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,516	$1.62	23d	1	1.16mi
5511 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,900	$1.78	25d	1	1.20mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	23d	1	1.24mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	23d	1	1.25mi
9262 Gulf Haven Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2043	$2,750	$1.35	16d	1	1.38mi
4816 Heinman Cv Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1920	$3,300	$1.72	13d	1	1.38mi
6249 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,890	$1.57	16d	1	1.38mi
6256 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,845	$1.52	16d	1	1.41mi
6334 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1235	$1,795	$1.45	5d	1	1.42mi
6354 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1123	$2,000	$1.78	25d	1	1.43mi
6109 63rd Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,960	$1.51	3d	1	1.44mi
6345 Willowside St Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1407	$2,200	$1.56	25d	1	1.45mi
6117 Tremeza Pl Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,321	$1.20	5d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $171 · $2,052/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,700 Active 447 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,700 Active 446 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,700 Active 445 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,700 Active 444 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $289,700 Active 440 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $289,700 Active 439 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,700 Active 438 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,700 Active 437 DOM
9. 2026-03-03
   price $289,700
10. 2025-09-18
    price $294,900
11. 2025-03-20
    listed $299,700 Active
12. 2004-11-08
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,358 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,405 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,046/yr (+$87/mo · 77.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,228
• − Property taxes: −$1,358
• − Insurance: −$1,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,406
• − Management: −$2,406
• − HOA: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$8,428
• Taxable loss: −$4,246
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,019
• After-tax cash flow: $1,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1014.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $289,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $294,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-20 Listed $299,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,358 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.