4743 NE Blue Heron Ln #7 · Jensen Beach, FL 34957

$159,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured · 470 Days on market

Built 1976 Good condition 4,144 sqft lot $145/sqft · 24% above area Est $128k · 24% over $325/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this beauty located just minutes from downtown Jensen Beach. This 2/1.5 mobile home has been completely renovated with new windows, flooring, electrical and the Florida room has been converted to make extra living space. The home comes furnished and is tastefully decorated. This 55+ mobile home park is a hidden gem on the Indian River. HOA is only $325 a month and covers cable, water, lawn maintenance, and all the amenities of the HOA which include heated pool, shuffleboard and a community dock.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Community dock
• New electrical

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• FLORIDA ROOM CONVERTED
• COMMUNITY DOCK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $159k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $486 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.1% in Jensen Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#432 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 536 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 470 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 470 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.88%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,396
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: 23.84%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13827 S Indian River Dr #56	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,245 (+13%)	19mo	$170,000	$137	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $513
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $21,957
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34957

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 536
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,501 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$325
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,886

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1150 NE County Line Rd Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$2,400	$1.84	23d	1	0.07mi
4215 NE Carrol Ct Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1304	$3,300	$2.53	23d	1	0.51mi
4220 NE Indian River Dr #2 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$2,200	$2.44	23d	1	0.59mi
3663 NE Barbara Dr Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	991	$2,450	$2.47	23d	1	0.94mi
1315 NE Flora Pl Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	23d	1	0.97mi
3450 NE Linda Dr Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1240	$2,500	$2.02	23d	1	1.12mi
3123 NE Savannah Rd Unit 3123 Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,195	$2.00	23d	1	1.40mi
3121 NE Savannah Rd Unit 3121 Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	1.0	1085	$2,095	$1.93	23d	1	1.40mi
3111 NE Savannah Rd Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1085	$1,995	$1.84	14d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $325 · $3,900/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectriccablepool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 470 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 469 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 468 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 467 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 465 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 464 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 462 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 461 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 460 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 459 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 455 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 454 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 453 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 452 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 451 DOM
16. 2026-03-19
    price $159,000 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Check out this beauty located just minutes from downtown Jensen Beach. This 2/1.5 mobile home has been completely renovated with new windows, flooring, electrical and the Florida room has been converted to make extra living space. The home comes furnished and is tastefully decorated. This 55+ mobile home park is a hidden gem on the Indian River. HOA is only $325 a month and covers cable, water, lawn maintenance, and all the amenities of the HOA which include heated pool, shuffleboard and a community dock.

17. 2026-01-01
    status Active 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Check out this beauty located just minutes from downtown Jensen Beach. This 2/1.5 mobile home has been completely renovated with new windows, flooring, electrical and the Florida room has been converted to make extra living space. The home comes furnished and is tastefully decorated. This 55+ mobile home park is a hidden gem on the Indian River. HOA is only $325 a month and covers cable, water, lawn maintenance, and all the amenities of the HOA which include heated pool, shuffleboard and a community dock.

18. 2026-01-01
    historical 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Check out this beauty located just minutes from downtown Jensen Beach. This 2/1.5 mobile home has been completely renovated with new windows, flooring, electrical and the Florida room has been converted to make extra living space. The home comes furnished and is tastefully decorated. This 55+ mobile home park is a hidden gem on the Indian River. HOA is only $325 a month and covers cable, water, lawn maintenance, and all the amenities of the HOA which include heated pool, shuffleboard and a community dock.

19. 2025-03-04
    listed $162,000 Active 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Check out this beauty located just minutes from downtown Jensen Beach. This 2/1.5 mobile home has been completely renovated with new windows, flooring, electrical and the Florida room has been converted to make extra living space. The home comes furnished and is tastefully decorated. This 55+ mobile home park is a hidden gem on the Indian River. HOA is only $325 a month and covers cable, water, lawn maintenance, and all the amenities of the HOA which include heated pool, shuffleboard and a community dock.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$1,592
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,401
• − Management: −$2,401
• − HOA: −$3,900
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $3,803
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$913
• After-tax cash flow: $4,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2/1.5 mobile home is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring a clean and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality.
• Both Updating the bathroom fixtures — New fixtures can enhance the bathroom's functionality and aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Updating the bathroom fixtures — New fixtures can enhance the bathroom's functionality and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin
• NCES district ID: 1201290
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,482
• Composite: 45.1/100
• National rank: #2690
• State rank: #24 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jensen Beach

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #432
• US rank: #7719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jensen Beach, FL
• County: Martin County · 165,223 people
• City population: 23,462
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,462
• Household income: $70,403
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 172,383 people
• By 2030: 180,192 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 194,114 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 204,992 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 229,641 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 232,146 · +34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -319.66%
• Current HPI: 340.0172
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.00%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $159,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-03-04 Listed $162,000 Beaches MLS