9450 Scenic Hills Dr · Semmes, AL 36575

$166,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,635 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1975 1.38 ac lot $102/sqft · 28% below area Est $232k · 28% under ↓ 24% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

USDA APPROVED - Solid brick 3/2 in popular Scenic Hills Estates of Semmes! Over one acre lot! *NEW ROOF* (black architectural shingle) installed Sept 2021. As you enter the front of the house from the foyer, you have a living and dining room combo to your left and then you proceed to the den with a wood-burning fireplace with beautiful brick surround. Kitchen has white cabinets, freshly painted walls and a gas oven/range that is great for cooking. Very nice French door Whirlpool refrigerator to remain. Laminate wood floors through living, dining, den and hallway. Bathrooms have had updates in the past few years, per sellers. Spacious master bedroom. Laundry room with side door access to the driveway as well as a nice coat/storage closet. Back door from den exits unto a covered porch with a private, big backyard that has a 12x12 storage building with overhang. USDA 100% financing eligible. Call to see this one today! *Listing Broker/Agent does not guarantee the accuracy of square footage. Buyer/Buyer's Agent to verify.*

Key facts

• Over 1 acre of land
• Minutes from schools
• 1.38 acre lot

Tags

• OVER 1 ACRE OF LAND
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED IN SEMMES
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING
• MINUTES FROM SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Electricity available (110 volts); Water available; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1975; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Shed(s); Other exterior features; View

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Concrete flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Fireplace in the family room; Separate dining room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $166k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.3% in Semmes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#311 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Allentown Elementary School (math 31% / reading 59%, grade D-, #169 of 627 statewide, top 27%, 776 students, 53% FRL); Semmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 35%, grade F, #185 of 257 statewide, top 73%, 1,318 students, 68% FRL); Mary G Montgomery High School (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #211 of 305 statewide, top 69%, 1,965 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,505 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.68%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,635
• List price: $166,500
• Delta: -28.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2455 Dresden Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,685 (+3%)	7mo	$260,000	$154	71
9736 Sky Vista Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-6%)	0mo	$259,000	$170	64
2070 Sky Vista Dr W	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-9%)	1mo	$185,000	$124	63
9570 Melanie Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,556 (-5%)	12mo	$224,000	$144	62
2345 Sky Vista Dr W	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,586 (-3%)	12mo	$250,000	$158	60
9885 Westward Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+4%)	4mo	$195,000	$115	59
9777 Howells Ferry Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,729 (+6%)	11mo	$255,000	$147	58
2556 Melanie Ct E	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,445 (-12%)	7mo	$235,000	$163	57
2080 Campfire Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,708 (+4%)	11mo	$235,000	$138	52
9200 Ponderosa Dr S	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,709 (+4%)	13mo	$222,000	$130	50
9743 Howells Ferry Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-15%)	8mo	$230,000	$165	48
9669 Scenic Ct	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,874 (+15%)	10mo	$186,100	$99	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,873
• Equity at exit: $24,826

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $49,555
• Equity at exit: $14,396

Cash invested: $46,620 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36575

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$873
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,744/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,377

Max offer price $166,500

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $626	-5% $579	+0% $532	+5% $485	+10% $437
Rent	-10% $370	-5% $451	+0% $532	+5% $613	+10% $694
Rate	-1.0pp $615	-0.5pp $574	base $532	+0.5pp $488	+1.0pp $445

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,625
• Closing costs: $4,995
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9340 Roberts Ln W Semmes, AL	3.0	2.0	1606	$2,050	$1.28	45d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $166,500 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $166,500 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $166,500 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $166,500 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $166,500 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $166,500 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $166,500 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $166,500 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $166,500 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $166,500 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $166,500 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $166,500 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 359-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $166,500 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 28 DOM
19. 2026-05-02
    listed $185,000 Active 313-char remark
20. 2022-01-04
    soldstatus $185,300
21. 2021-12-27
    soldstatus $183,500 1035-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1035 chars)

    USDA APPROVED - Solid brick 3/2 in popular Scenic Hills Estates of Semmes! Over one acre lot! *NEW ROOF* (black architectural shingle) installed Sept 2021. As you enter the front of the house from the foyer, you have a living and dining room combo to your left and then you proceed to the den with a wood-burning fireplace with beautiful brick surround. Kitchen has white cabinets, freshly painted walls and a gas oven/range that is great for cooking. Very nice French door Whirlpool refrigerator to remain. Laminate wood floors through living, dining, den and hallway. Bathrooms have had updates in the past few years, per sellers. Spacious master bedroom. Laundry room with side door access to the driveway as well as a nice coat/storage closet. Back door from den exits unto a covered porch with a private, big backyard that has a 12x12 storage building with overhang. USDA 100% financing eligible. Call to see this one today! *Listing Broker/Agent does not guarantee the accuracy of square footage. Buyer/Buyer's Agent to verify.*

22. 2009-12-09
    soldstatus $126,119
23. 2006-04-19
    soldstatus $220,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,744 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,744 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,327
• − Property taxes: −$1,744
• − Insurance: −$832
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$4,844
• Taxable income: $3,917
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$940
• After-tax cash flow: $5,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Semmes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #19360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,444

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.58%
• Current HPI: 217.5112
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-24.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $166,500 GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-02 Listed $185,000 GCMLS AL
• 2022-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $185,300 Public Records
• 2021-12-27 Sold (MLS) $183,500 GCMLS AL
• 2009-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $126,119 Public Records
• 2006-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,744 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.