4016 Kathland Ave · Baltimore, MD 21207

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1920 7,250 sqft lot $124/sqft · 20% below area Est $233k · 20% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,250 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 10 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Below-grade unfinished area of 744; Above-grade finished area recorded as 1,488
• Financial info: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public septic; Natural gas hot water
• Home design: Detached home; Located within city limits
• Construction: Wood siding; Permanent foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Year built recorded by assessor
• Exterior features: Public water; Public septic (sewer)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom on a lower level
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heat; Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: One fireplace; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($446/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,646 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.86%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,582
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -20.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4016 Kathland Ave	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,488 (0%)	0mo	$175,000	$118	98
2918 Forest Glen Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-6%)	2mo	$147,000	$105	61
4103 Kathland	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+10%)	20mo	$298,000	$182	60
2809 Allendale Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-5%)	7mo	$285,000	$202	54
4405 Vesta Ave	0.50mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,388 (-7%)	19mo	$215,000	$155	44
2713 Talbot Rd	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,602 (+8%)	19mo	$100,000	$62	44
2903 Forest Glen Rd	0.54mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,560 (+5%)	19mo	$195,000	$125	44
2717 Talbot Rd	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,600 (+8%)	23mo	$230,000	$144	42
3009 Milford	0.64mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,338 (-10%)	10mo	$162,000	$121	40
3102 Brightwood Ave	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,338 (-10%)	4mo	$365,000	$273	36
3104 Brightwood Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,363 (-8%)	19mo	$249,000	$183	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.5% appreciation · 5.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $100,690
• Equity at exit: $159,952

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.83×
• Total profit: $301,743
• Equity at exit: $338,044

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21207

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,880/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,629

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $90	+0% $37	+5% $-15	+10% $-68
Rent	-10% $-95	-5% $-29	+0% $37	+5% $103	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $84	base $37	+0.5pp $-11	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3915 Liberty Heights Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	680	$1,345	$1.98	13d	5	0.25mi
4309 Norfolk Ave Unit 1st Floor Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1470	$1,500	$1.02	12d	1	0.25mi
3615 Mohawk Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,610	$1.61	44d	1	0.43mi
3617 Mohawk Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	44d	1	0.43mi
4738 Wakefield Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	884	$1,200	$1.36	25d	1	0.59mi
3601 Howard Park Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	44d	1	0.67mi
3508 Grantley Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	25d	1	0.74mi
3727 Milford Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	44d	1	0.81mi
4010 Fernhill Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	0.83mi
3403 Carlisle Ave Apt 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	12d	1	0.88mi
3904 Gwynns Falls Pkwy Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,600	$1.47	44d	1	0.90mi
2220 Lyndhurst Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	25d	1	0.94mi
4998 W Forest Park Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,875	$2.37	15d	15	1.00mi
3784 Columbus Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	25d	1	1.09mi
2103 Chelsea Ter Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,100	$1.40	15d	1	1.11mi
2103 Chelsea Ter Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	15d	1	1.11mi
3807 Bowers Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,200	$1.91	44d	1	1.14mi
2742 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,350	$1.32	44d	2	1.15mi
5533 Gwynn Oak Ave Fl 1 Gwynn Oak, MD	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,600	$1.48	44d	1	1.15mi
3001 Carlisle Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,300	$1.27	44d	1	1.17mi
3204 Sequoia Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1791	$2,600	$1.45	44d	1	1.18mi
3514 Clifton Ave Unit 21 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	925	$1,150	$1.24	44d	1	1.19mi
3514 Clifton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	925	$1,199	$1.30	44d	1	1.19mi
2738 N Longwood St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,399	$1.37	44d	1	1.19mi
3028 Hanlon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,711	$1.43	25d	1	1.24mi
5006 Windsor Mill Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,899	$2.45	3d	18	1.27mi
3709 Nortonia Rd #2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1289	$1,450	$1.12	19d	1	1.31mi
3735 Manchester Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	5d	1	1.32mi
4230 Towanda Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	19d	1	1.35mi
3535 Flannery Ln Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1536	$2,000	$1.30	44d	1	1.39mi
5000 Litchfield Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	44d	1	1.40mi
3017 Poplar Ter Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	880	$1,349	$1.53	25d	1	1.40mi
4828 Beaufort Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,850	$1.54	25d	1	1.42mi
1 Janper Ct Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	950	$1,500	$1.58	4d	1	1.45mi
5136 Oaklawn Rd Gwynn Oak, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	896	$1,710	$1.91	3d	22	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-16
   listed $185,000 Active 358-char remark
2. 2026-05-16
   historical $185,000 358-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,880 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,880 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,880
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$2,651
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$636
• After-tax cash flow: $1,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 47,099
• Household income: $67,060
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2139.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 78% White 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Philippines, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.50%
• Current HPI: 843.63
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.23%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Sold (MLS) $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-16 Listed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-16 Coming Soon $185,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,880 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.