131 Abigail St · Cove, TX 77523

$335,610

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,218 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $346k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Contact Sales for Details

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $335,350

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property; Fentress plan
• Exterior features: Address: 131 Abigail St, Cove, TX 77523

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec home (Fentress plan); Living area approximately 2,218

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $336k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,041 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $346,008
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7118 Thomas James Ct	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,218 (0%)	1mo	$326,130	$147	98
6739 Camila St	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,285 (+3%)	2mo	$314,990	$138	74
427 Ruby Ford Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,285 (+3%)	2mo	$319,990	$140	74
6703 Alejandro Pl	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,055 (-7%)	0mo	$341,580	$166	68
6735 Camila St	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,466 (+11%)	2mo	$314,990	$128	60
6711 Alejandro Pl	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,530 (+14%)	1mo	$379,990	$150	59
510 Louis Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,937 (-13%)	2mo	$303,440	$157	57
8419 Rio Spring Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,180 (-2%)	4mo	$339,340	$156	57
155 Horn Ct	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,052 (-8%)	2mo	$255,000	$124	54
6723 Camila St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,943 (-12%)	4mo	$309,990	$160	54
6714 Camila St	0.47mi	4/3.0	1,899 (-14%)	4mo	$338,930	$178	49
211 Brazos Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,488 (+12%)	2mo	$429,000	$172	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-61,998
• Equity at exit: $50,041

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-60,336
• Equity at exit: $29,017

Cash invested: $93,971 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,760 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$420 /mo · $5,034/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $-139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,936

Max offer price $315,554

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $-23	+0% $-139	+5% $-255	+10% $-371
Rent	-10% $-357	-5% $-248	+0% $-139	+5% $-30	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $30	-0.5pp $-53	base $-139	+0.5pp $-226	+1.0pp $-314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,902
• Closing costs: $10,068
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	45d	1	0.34mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	3d	1	0.57mi
8411 Hannah Rd Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,195	$0.94	26d	1	1.46mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	26d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 25-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $335,610 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,799
• − Property taxes: −$5,034
• − Insurance: −$1,678
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,650
• − Management: −$2,650
• − Depreciation: −$9,763
• Taxable loss: −$7,450
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,788
• After-tax cash flow: $125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B