12123 W Bell Rd #211 · Surprise, AZ 85378

$126,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Condo public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1987 $220/sqft · 11% below area Est $148k · 14% under $192/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW, Professionally installed dual pain sliding glass doors on the patio. Seize the chance to own this charming Flat unit in Cliffs Condominium! Discover a serene living room with a soothing palette and durable tile flooring for easy maintenance. The kitchen comes with granite counters, crisp white cabinetry, tile backsplash, stainless appliances. Refrigerator and Full size Laundry included. Your Community includes maintained common areas, a pickleball court, shuffle ball, walking trails, pool and much more. This truly is an amazing location, which gives you access to the Northwest Valley, shops, dining and family medical care.

Key facts

• Pickleball court
• Stainless appliances
• Walking paths

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• PICKLEBALL COURT
• SHUFFLE BALL
• WALKING PATHS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-200/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 80 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($875 loan paydown + $224 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $126k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,801
• List price: $126,500
• Delta: -14.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-7,047
• Equity at exit: $37,855

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,598
• Equity at exit: $46,409

Cash invested: $35,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,157 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$663
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $270/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,178

Max offer price $123,550

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $55	-5% $19	+0% $-17	+5% $-53	+10% $-240
Rent	-10% $-108	-5% $-62	+0% $-17	+5% $29	+10% $75
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $15	base $-17	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,625
• Closing costs: $3,795
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12123 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	634	$962	$1.52	4d	3	0.08mi
12123 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	634	$1,025	$1.62	25d	4	0.08mi
12123 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	576	$1,000	$1.74	45d	4	0.08mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,165	$2.05	3d	5	0.15mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,175	$2.07	6d	4	0.15mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,100	$1.94	19d	4	0.15mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,100	$1.94	19d	4	0.15mi
12221 W Bell Rd #175 Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	560	$1,198	$2.14	45d	1	0.18mi
12717 W Amy Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	4.0	500	$1,395	$2.79	45d	1	0.85mi
12717 W Amy Dr Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	3.0	500	$1,395	$2.79	45d	1	0.85mi
12741 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	25d	1	0.89mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Unit 1 Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$1,300	$1.79	6d	1	0.93mi
15841 N Sunny Ln #1 Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	650	$1,400	$2.15	3d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-01
   price $126,500 636-char remark

   Show marketing remark (636 chars)

   NEW, Professionally installed dual pain sliding glass doors on the patio. Seize the chance to own this charming Flat unit in Cliffs Condominium! Discover a serene living room with a soothing palette and durable tile flooring for easy maintenance. The kitchen comes with granite counters, crisp white cabinetry, tile backsplash, stainless appliances. Refrigerator and Full size Laundry included. Your Community includes maintained common areas, a pickleball court, shuffle ball, walking trails, pool and much more. This truly is an amazing location, which gives you access to the Northwest Valley, shops, dining and family medical care.

2. 2026-04-03
   price $131,500 636-char remark

   Show marketing remark (636 chars)

   NEW, Professionally installed dual pain sliding glass doors on the patio. Seize the chance to own this charming Flat unit in Cliffs Condominium! Discover a serene living room with a soothing palette and durable tile flooring for easy maintenance. The kitchen comes with granite counters, crisp white cabinetry, tile backsplash, stainless appliances. Refrigerator and Full size Laundry included. Your Community includes maintained common areas, a pickleball court, shuffle ball, walking trails, pool and much more. This truly is an amazing location, which gives you access to the Northwest Valley, shops, dining and family medical care.

3. 2026-03-05
   price $140,500 636-char remark

   Show marketing remark (636 chars)

   NEW, Professionally installed dual pain sliding glass doors on the patio. Seize the chance to own this charming Flat unit in Cliffs Condominium! Discover a serene living room with a soothing palette and durable tile flooring for easy maintenance. The kitchen comes with granite counters, crisp white cabinetry, tile backsplash, stainless appliances. Refrigerator and Full size Laundry included. Your Community includes maintained common areas, a pickleball court, shuffle ball, walking trails, pool and much more. This truly is an amazing location, which gives you access to the Northwest Valley, shops, dining and family medical care.

4. 2025-12-23
   listed $139,000 Active 636-char remark

   Show marketing remark (636 chars)

   NEW, Professionally installed dual pain sliding glass doors on the patio. Seize the chance to own this charming Flat unit in Cliffs Condominium! Discover a serene living room with a soothing palette and durable tile flooring for easy maintenance. The kitchen comes with granite counters, crisp white cabinetry, tile backsplash, stainless appliances. Refrigerator and Full size Laundry included. Your Community includes maintained common areas, a pickleball court, shuffle ball, walking trails, pool and much more. This truly is an amazing location, which gives you access to the Northwest Valley, shops, dining and family medical care.

5. 2025-11-24
   historical
6. 2025-09-02
   price $149,000
7. 2025-08-21
   price $152,000
8. 2025-08-08
   price $154,000
9. 2025-07-17
   price $159,900
10. 2025-07-08
    price $169,000
11. 2025-06-26
    price $174,900
12. 2025-06-13
    listed $180,000 Active
13. 2019-01-22
    soldstatus $77,000 Closed
14. 2019-01-22
    soldstatus $77,000
15. 2018-12-21
    status Pending
16. 2018-12-15
    listed $74,900 Active
17. 2014-06-17
    historical
18. 2014-04-25
    listed $39,900 Active
19. 1997-11-24
    soldstatus $44,500
20. 1994-12-19
    soldstatus $482,416
21. 1994-12-19
    soldstatus $750,000
22. 1993-01-19
    soldstatus $1,474,522

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $270 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $835 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: +$565/yr (+$47/mo · 209.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,086
• − Property taxes: −$270
• − Insurance: −$632
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,110
• − Management: −$1,110
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$3,680
• Taxable loss: −$2,312
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$555
• After-tax cash flow: $354/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 510.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-91.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $126,500 ARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $131,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $140,500 ARMLS
• 2025-12-23 Listed $139,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $149,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $152,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $154,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $159,900 ARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $169,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $174,900 ARMLS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $180,000 ARMLS
• 2019-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-22 Sold (MLS) $77,000 ARMLS
• 2018-12-21 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-12-15 Listed $74,900 ARMLS
• 2014-06-17 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-04-25 Listed $39,900 ARMLS
• 1997-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $44,500 Public Records
• 1994-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $750,000 Public Records
• 1994-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $482,416 Public Records
• 1993-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $1,474,522 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $270 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.