461 Cedar Creek Dr · Star Valley Ranch, WY 83127

$499,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,133 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1984 1.10 ac lot $234/sqft · 20% below area Est $626k · 20% under $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.8/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Detached garage shop
• Cathedral ceilings

Tags

• CABIN STYLE HOME
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• LARGE DECKS
• DETACHED GARAGE SHOP
• GENEROUS OUTDOOR LIVING AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee (approximately $405.54 per year / $33.80 per month)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Gravel parking; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electric service on property
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Cedar construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Wooded lot with few trees; Has a view; Pets allowed

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Unfurnished; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (67.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (70.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (70.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 0.8% in Star Valley Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#73 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Lincoln County School District #2 (rural): math 57% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #7 of 41 in WY (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 220 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lincoln County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $146,031 (70.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 71% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.29% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.27%
• DSCR: 0.28
• GRM: 28.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $625,804
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -20.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Alta Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	2,090 (-2%)	3mo	$624,900	$299	78
101 Alta Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,910 (-10%)	11mo	$649,000	$340	61
76 Solitude Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,840 (-14%)	16mo	$565,000	$307	50
34 Vista East Dr	0.47mi	3/3.0	1,991 (-7%)	19mo	$569,000	$286	47
20 Ridgecrest Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	2,414 (+13%)	21mo	$605,000	$251	41
15 Solitude Cir	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,872 (-12%)	11mo	$575,000	$307	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $150,868
• Equity at exit: $449,539

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.86×
• Total profit: $538,736
• Equity at exit: $969,447

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83127

• Home prices YoY: 32.4%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 28.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,460 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,276/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $-1,895

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,859

Max offer price $164,288

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $499,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $499,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $499,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $499,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $499,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $499,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $499,000 Active 866-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,276 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,044 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: +$768/yr (+$64/mo · 33.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 11 d/yr ≥85°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$2,276
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,402
• − Management: −$1,402
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$32,927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,902
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln County School District #2
• NCES district ID: 5604060
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,907
• Composite: 53.84/100
• National rank: #1413
• State rank: #7 of 41 in WY

Livability — Star Valley Ranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #11627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Star Valley Ranch, WY
• Population (ZIP): 3,726

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,890 people
• By 2030: 20,275 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 20,691 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 20,640 · +3.8%
• By 2075: 20,008 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 18,122 · -8.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.3) · D 15.1% · R 83.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.4pp · 2024: -68.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.3 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+67.6 2012: R+68.3 2008: R+54.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 78.23%
• Current HPI: 319.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $499,000 TBOR

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,276 · -27.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.