8601 Memphis Dr #42 · Lubbock, TX 79423

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,006 sqft · Condo · 157 Days on market

Built 1983 ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Condominium #42 is located on the second floor, over looking the community pool, with easy access to parking as well. With 2 bedrooms, and 2 bathrooms, this condo would make a fantastic rental and or investment property! Come see it today, priced to sell! $130/month HOA fee covers water, trash, sewer, and grants access to the community pool and covered parking space.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Parking
• Community pool

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• EASY ACCESS TO PARKING
• COVERED PARKING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-208/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Honey El (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B, #257 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 420 students, 48% FRL); Evans Middle (math 34% / reading 43%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 799 students, 58% FRL); Monterey H S (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,114 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 669 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-20,640
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-23,021
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79423

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,149 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$130
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,171

Max offer price $112,488

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $62	-5% $22	+0% $-17	+5% $-57	+10% $-97
Rent	-10% $-108	-5% $-63	+0% $-17	+5% $28	+10% $73
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $12	base $-17	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8601 Memphis Dr Unit A 8 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1069	$1,150	$1.08	45d	1	0.01mi
8601 Memphis Dr Unit A22 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$725	$0.97	45d	1	0.01mi
9001 Indiana Ave Unit C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$699	$0.64	45d	1	0.41mi
9818 Jordan Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,500	$1.00	45d	1	0.69mi
3311 79th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1391	$1,249	$0.90	45d	1	0.76mi
8310 Raleigh Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,300	$0.92	15d	1	0.86mi
8216 Elkridge Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,550	$1.10	22d	1	0.90mi
8219 Elkridge Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,475	$1.05	45d	1	0.91mi
9604 Elgin Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	783	$1,000	$1.28	45d	1	0.99mi
3107 75th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,250	$0.89	22d	1	1.09mi
4424 105th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1452	$1,575	$1.08	15d	1	1.22mi
7414 Elgin Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	708	$995	$1.41	15d	16	1.24mi
2612 81st St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,100	$0.96	45d	1	1.28mi
9502 University Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	808	$950	$1.18	15d	5	1.34mi
6911 Gary Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,125	$0.97	45d	1	1.35mi
3203 109th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	45d	1	1.36mi
6914 Fremont Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$995	$0.98	45d	1	1.36mi
4501 71st St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$1,095	$1.30	45d	9	1.40mi
3203 110th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1191	$1,350	$1.13	22d	1	1.41mi
6711 Hartford Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1165	$975	$0.84	45d	1	1.41mi
3108 110th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,325	$1.08	22d	1	1.42mi
3106 110th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,275	$1.11	15d	1	1.43mi
3102 110th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	22d	1	1.44mi
3101 110th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1193	$1,225	$1.03	22d	1	1.47mi
3108 111th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	45d	1	1.47mi
4804 76th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,350	$1.01	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   price $115,000
3. 2025-10-22
   listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,103
• − Management: −$1,103
• − HOA: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$2,070
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$497
• After-tax cash flow: $288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,998
• Household income: $84,933
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.00%
• Current HPI: 213.6491
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $115,000 LARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $120,000 LARMLS