53 Hickory Road Rd · Snow Lake Shores, MS 38603

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · Other · 173 Days on market

Built 1970 Poor condition 0.55 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is within a short walk to Snow Lake and offers a relaxed, comfortable setting. It's a great option for someone who enjoys the scenery or wants a simple weekend getaway. The location is convenient, sitting about an hour from Memphis, Oxford, and Tupelo, making it easy to enjoy a quiet escape without being too far from town. Scheduled a showing today

Key facts

• 0.55 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 173 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $135k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($188/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#230 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Benton County School District (rural): math 31% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #66 of 130 in MS (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ashland Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #221 of 375 statewide, top 60%, 274 students, 100% FRL); Ashland Middle-High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #137 of 197 statewide, top 72%, 222 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 84% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.50%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $17,280
• Equity at exit: $60,702

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $60,162
• Equity at exit: $93,549

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38603

• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $62	+0% $16	+5% $-31	+10% $-78
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $-32	+0% $16	+5% $63	+10% $111
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $50	base $16	+0.5pp $-19	+1.0pp $-55

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $135,000 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $135,000 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $135,000 Active 166 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $135,000 Active 165 DOM
7. 2025-12-17
   listed $135,000 Active 378-char remark

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is within a short walk to Snow Lake and offers a relaxed, comfortable setting. It's a great option for someone who enjoys the scenery or wants a simple weekend getaway. The location is convenient, sitting about an hour from Memphis, Oxford, and Tupelo, making it easy to enjoy a quiet escape without being too far from town. Scheduled a showing today

8. 2023-06-05
   historical
9. 2023-04-03
   price $86,300
10. 2023-02-21
    listed $104,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,153
• − Management: −$1,153
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$2,085
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$500
• After-tax cash flow: $689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to become move-in ready. Immediate focus should be on the roof and exterior to ensure safety and improve curb appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Severe damage to shingles
• Major exterior siding — Significant damage and peeling
• Major flooring — Exposed subflooring and debris
• Major interior walls — Paint peeling and visible damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both Replace roof — Critical to safety and appearance
• Both Repair and paint exterior — Improves curb appeal and value
• Both Replace flooring — Essential for safety and appearance
• Both Repair and paint interior walls — Improves living conditions and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Severe damage to shingles	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Significant damage and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Exposed subflooring and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Paint peeling and visible damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Replace roof — Critical to safety and appearance ↑
• Both Repair and paint exterior — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Essential for safety and appearance ↑
• Both Repair and paint interior walls — Improves living conditions and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Benton County School District
• NCES district ID: 2800600
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,111
• Composite: 26.25/100
• National rank: #7254
• State rank: #66 of 130 in MS

Livability — Snow Lake Shores

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #19453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Snow Lake Shores, MS
• Population (ZIP): 2,602

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,339 people
• By 2030: 6,879 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 5,886 · -19.8%
• By 2050: 5,010 · -31.7%
• By 2075: 3,682 · -49.8%
• By 2100: 3,421 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 24% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 34.0% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.2pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+13.2 2012: R+0.1 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+28.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-17 Listed $135,000 NEMSBD
• 2023-06-05 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2023-04-03 Price Changed $86,300 MLSU
• 2023-02-21 Listed $104,900 MLSU