3205 Deer Ct · Brandon, FL 33511

$242,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · Townhouse public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1975 1,009 sqft lot $268/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location! Location! Location! Great opportunity to own in Buckhorn Creek Town Homes. This townhome has 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths with 1256 sq. ft. of living space. Galley style kitchen also has the washer/dryer hook ups for easy access. Plenty of cabinet & counter space with a closet pantry. There is a breakfast bar and a large dining room. Laminate flooring through out the dining/living room combo. Sliding glass doors open to 2 fenced patios; one with a storage closest. There is a big storage closet downstairs with additional storage under the staircase if needed. 3 spacious bedrooms upstairs and the master features a closet with additional shelving. Large bathroom upstairs and a half bath downstairs. The back patio has a drop down fence for you to enjoy the creek running behind the building. There are 2 assigned parking spaces -one covered. The resort style community pool with gated access has a large area for parties and cookouts. This townhome is move in ready, but you will want to put your personal style in it. Walk to Big Lots, Dining and Post Office - close to Bloomindale and main streets. Townhome will be sold "as is" and owner will not make any repairs. This townhome is priced to sell - do not wait.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Tennis courts
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• UPDATED TOWNHOME
• PRIVACY FENCED PATIOS
• LANDSCAPED WALKING TRAILS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total monthly HOA fees shown as $268 (total annual fees $3,216); Lease/restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Buckhorn HOA with required monthly fee of $268; HOA fee covers cable TV, community pool, structure maintenance, and grounds maintenance; Association approval required; Community clubhouse, pool, and sidewalks; Deed-restricted community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Townhouse (residential); Two levels; East-facing entry
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of building number 3205
• Exterior features: Front and rear porches; Sidewalk; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Tray and vaulted ceilings; Window treatments; Exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-519/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#26 in FL, #507 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riverview High School (math 37% / reading 50%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,599 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 313 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $171k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,936 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.77%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-48,218
• Equity at exit: $36,083

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-69,667
• Equity at exit: $20,924

Cash invested: $67,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33511

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 313
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,159 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$268
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,214

Max offer price $234,358

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,500
• Closing costs: $7,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
856 Creekway Ct Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1556	$2,045	$1.31	22d	1	0.12mi
1002 Creekbridge Rd Brandon, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1062	$1,736	$1.63	1d	6	0.17mi
1024 Hallwood Loop Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,295	$1.57	24d	1	0.37mi
1407 Trail Boss Ln Brandon, FL	4.0	2.0	1857	$2,395	$1.29	18d	1	0.38mi
609 Princeton St Brandon, FL	4.0	2.0	1681	$2,150	$1.28	24d	1	0.38mi
826 Milano Cir Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$2,029	$1.96	1d	17	0.51mi
816 Centerwood Ct Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1391	$2,009	$1.44	24d	1	0.53mi
808 Pebblewood Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1145	$2,075	$1.81	12d	1	0.58mi
3812 Pinedale St Brandon, FL	4.0	2.0	1586	$2,295	$1.45	18d	1	0.69mi
3124 Bloomingdale Villas Ct Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	24d	1	0.75mi
3818 Southview Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$2,245	$1.64	24d	1	0.78mi
602 Pine Forest Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,595	$1.79	24d	1	0.81mi
1407 Wakefield Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1728	$2,200	$1.27	22d	1	0.82mi
622 Breezeway Ct Brandon, FL	4.0	2.5	1854	$2,300	$1.24	3d	1	0.94mi
5790 Stockport St Riverview, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,180	$2.33	3d	37	1.00mi
5403 Lindburg St Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,300	$1.26	24d	1	1.02mi
11112 Swansea St Riverview, FL	2.0	2.0	1731	$2,500	$1.44	17d	1	1.13mi
1904 Firethorn Ct Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1773	$2,095	$1.18	22d	1	1.19mi
1904 Firethorn Ct Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1773	$2,095	$1.18	16d	1	1.19mi
3039 Annadale Cir Brandon, FL	4.0	2.0	1549	$2,320	$1.50	3d	1	1.22mi
557 Rapid Falls Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$2,300	$1.71	18d	1	1.25mi
2023 Green Juniper Ln Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$2,125	$1.63	18d	1	1.25mi
2810 Manor Hill Dr Brandon, FL	4.0	2.0	1649	$2,279	$1.38	1d	1	1.29mi
2442 Knight Island Dr Brandon, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,500	$1.35	24d	1	1.30mi
2704 Manor Hill Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,139	$1.89	3d	1	1.37mi
2709 Manor Hill Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1358	$2,350	$1.73	20d	1	1.37mi
1413 Tiverton Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$2,200	$1.69	18d	1	1.37mi
1540 Chepacket St Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1417	$2,220	$1.57	24d	1	1.43mi
1440 Tiverton Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,995	$1.60	20d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $268 · $3,216/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurityparking

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $242,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $242,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $242,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $242,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $242,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $242,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $242,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 683-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $242,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,335 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,009 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$674/yr (+$56/mo · 50.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,556
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,073
• − Management: −$2,073
• − HOA: −$3,216
• − Depreciation: −$7,040
• Taxable loss: −$4,590
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,102
• After-tax cash flow: $583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #507

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A- Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brandon, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 92,716
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 62,138
• Household income: $81,301
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3073.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 18% Black 15% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -279.49%
• Current HPI: 333.4744
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.17%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+696.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $242,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $171,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-20 Sold (MLS) $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-26 Listed $118,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $76,800 Public Records
• 2015-05-01 Sold (MLS) $76,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-04 Listed $77,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-08 Listed $69,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-23 Listed $125,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-09 Listed $102,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1988-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,100 Public Records
• 1977-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,335 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.