16 Railroad Pl · Pennington, NJ 08534

$232,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · Condo public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1988 $255/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check auction.com for details. .. Nicely updated condo with 2 full bathrooms. The upper level loft area can easily be used as a second bedroom which also has a walk in closet. Freshly painted and refinished hardwood flooring. Detached garage and full basement which is common area to the neighboring unit. Near shopping and main used roadways.

Key facts

• Full basement
• Walk in closet
• Detached garage

Tags

• UPPER LEVEL LOFT AREA
• WALK IN CLOSET
• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORING
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FULL BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Condo fee $255 monthly covering ground fee, common area maintenance, and lawn maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Detached garage with rear entry (1 garage space)
• Utilities: Public water; No septic system (public sewer); Electric for cooling; Natural gas for heating and hot water
• Home design: Condominium unit (Unit/Flat); Garden-style building (1–4 floors); Entry on level 1
• Construction: Built of stone and block construction
• Exterior features: Basement: full, unfinished with outside entrance; Not in a federal flood zone; Pets allowed (cats and dogs permitted)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Built-in range; Electric oven/range
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level; One bedroom on the upper level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile/brick; Partially carpeted
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level, one on upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air (electric); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Stall shower; Ceiling fans; Dining area; Galley kitchen; Wood floors
• Laundry & utility: No in-unit washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $232k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-993/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (6.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $232k).
• Recommended offer: $218k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.7% in Pennington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#84 in NJ, #2,077 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Hopewell Valley Regional School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #72 of 472 in NJ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Toll Gate Grammar School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #256 of 1,303 statewide, top 22%, 310 students, 2% FRL); Timberlane Middle School (math 40% / reading 69%, grade B-, #68 of 431 statewide, top 16%, 780 students, 3% FRL); Hopewell Valley Central High School (math 44% / reading 71%, grade C, #67 of 399 statewide, top 17%, 1,079 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 3% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 141 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $152k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,885 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.52%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-50,346
• Equity at exit: $34,667

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-79,151
• Equity at exit: $20,102

Cash invested: $65,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08534

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.2%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,660 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,219
• Tax from tax record: −$613 /mo · $7,361/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$255
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,765

Max offer price $217,885

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $-17	+0% $-83	+5% $-149	+10% $-214
Rent	-10% $-293	-5% $-188	+0% $-83	+5% $22	+10% $127
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $-24	base $-83	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,125
• Closing costs: $6,975
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $255 · $3,060/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $232,500 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $232,500 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $232,500 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $232,500 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-04-09
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2026-03-30
   status Active
7. 2026-03-12
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2026-02-05
   price $260,000
9. 2026-01-14
   price $275,000
10. 2026-01-06
    price $290,000
11. 2025-12-23
    price $299,900
12. 2025-11-25
    price $325,000
13. 2025-10-27
    price $339,900
14. 2025-09-23
    price $345,500
15. 2025-08-26
    price $359,900
16. 2025-07-29
    price $370,000
17. 2025-07-01
    listed $385,000 Active
18. 2022-12-01
    historical
19. 2021-07-31
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2021-07-22
    status Active
21. 2021-06-18
    historical
22. 2021-05-22
    listed $430,000 Active
23. 2020-11-19
    status Pending
24. 2020-11-19
    historical
25. 2020-11-11
    historical Active Under Contract
26. 2020-11-11
    status Pending
27. 2020-11-11
    historical
28. 2020-10-12
    historical Active Under Contract
29. 2020-07-17
    listed $199,999 Active
30. 2020-07-01
    listed $425,000 Active
31. 2020-02-29
    historical
32. 2019-09-12
    price $450,000
33. 2019-03-15
    listed $475,000 Active
34. 2005-12-21
    soldstatus $290,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,361 · $613/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,361 · $613/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,024
• − Property taxes: −$7,361
• − Insurance: −$1,162
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,554
• − Management: −$2,554
• − HOA: −$3,060
• − Depreciation: −$6,764
• Taxable loss: −$4,553
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,093
• After-tax cash flow: $100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopewell Valley Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3407530
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $126,131
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1636
• State rank: #72 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pennington

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #2077

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pennington, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 13,272
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 13,272
• Household income: $175,573
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 160.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 18% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 5% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.16%
• Current HPI: 234.5759
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-12 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $260,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $275,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $290,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $299,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $325,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $339,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $345,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $359,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $370,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-01 Listed $385,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-31 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-22 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-06-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-22 Listed $430,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-11-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-11-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-11-11 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-11-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-11-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-10-12 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-07-17 Listed $199,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-07-01 Listed $425,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-02-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-09-12 Price Changed $450,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-15 Listed $475,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,361 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.