4824 Grays Creek Church Rd · Hope Mills, NC 28348

$152,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 236 Days on market

Built 1996

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully renovated home with a new HVAC system on a spacious acre of land. This charming property offers comfort and style. Inside, you'll find bright living spaces and a modern kitchen with granite countertops, three bedrooms and 1 bathroom. While outside, the expansive partially fenced acre of land provides endless opportunities for outdoor enjoyment and privacy. With no HOA, enjoy the freedom to customize and make this your own slice of countryside paradise! Schedule your tour today!!

Key facts

• Wide open space
• Full acre
• Secluded setting

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• SECLUDED SETTING
• WIDE OPEN SPACE
• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Water from spring and well; Septic tank and holding tank for sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s); Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout; Granite countertops
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $152k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.8% in Hope Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gray'S Creek Middle (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #215 of 475 statewide, top 46%, 1,126 students, 50% FRL); Gray'S Creek High (math 61% / reading 58%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,395 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.11%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,309
• Equity at exit: $22,738

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $28,454
• Equity at exit: $13,185

Cash invested: $42,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28348

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,581 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$800
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,162/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,215

Max offer price $152,500

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $375	-5% $332	+0% $289	+5% $245	+10% $202
Rent	-10% $164	-5% $226	+0% $289	+5% $351	+10% $413
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $327	base $289	+0.5pp $249	+1.0pp $209

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,125
• Closing costs: $4,575
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   price $152,500
3. 2026-04-14
   price $153,500
4. 2026-03-12
   price $154,000
5. 2026-02-10
   price $155,000
6. 2026-02-02
   status Active
7. 2025-10-31
   price $160,000
8. 2025-09-19
   listed $162,000 Active
9. 2025-05-31
   historical
10. 2025-04-25
    price $167,900
11. 2025-04-16
    price $168,900
12. 2025-03-08
    price $169,900
13. 2025-03-03
    status Active
14. 2025-02-28
    price $170,000
15. 2025-02-28
    historical
16. 2025-01-31
    price $174,900
17. 2025-01-06
    listed $179,900 Active
18. 2024-12-13
    soldstatus $162,000 Closed 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Fully renovated home with a new HVAC system on a spacious acre of land. This charming property offers comfort and style. Inside, you'll find bright living spaces and a modern kitchen with granite countertops, three bedrooms and 1 bathroom. While outside, the expansive partially fenced acre of land provides endless opportunities for outdoor enjoyment and privacy. With no HOA, enjoy the freedom to customize and make this your own slice of countryside paradise! Schedule your tour today!!

19. 2024-12-13
    soldstatus $162,000

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Fully renovated home with a new HVAC system on a spacious acre of land. This charming property offers comfort and style. Inside, you'll find bright living spaces and a modern kitchen with granite countertops, three bedrooms and 1 bathroom. While outside, the expansive partially fenced acre of land provides endless opportunities for outdoor enjoyment and privacy. With no HOA, enjoy the freedom to customize and make this your own slice of countryside paradise! Schedule your tour today!!

20. 2024-10-27
    status Pending 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Fully renovated home with a new HVAC system on a spacious acre of land. This charming property offers comfort and style. Inside, you'll find bright living spaces and a modern kitchen with granite countertops, three bedrooms and 1 bathroom. While outside, the expansive partially fenced acre of land provides endless opportunities for outdoor enjoyment and privacy. With no HOA, enjoy the freedom to customize and make this your own slice of countryside paradise! Schedule your tour today!!

21. 2024-10-10
    listed $164,900 Active 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Fully renovated home with a new HVAC system on a spacious acre of land. This charming property offers comfort and style. Inside, you'll find bright living spaces and a modern kitchen with granite countertops, three bedrooms and 1 bathroom. While outside, the expansive partially fenced acre of land provides endless opportunities for outdoor enjoyment and privacy. With no HOA, enjoy the freedom to customize and make this your own slice of countryside paradise! Schedule your tour today!!

22. 2024-05-15
    price $154,900
23. 2024-05-11
    price $159,900
24. 2024-05-02
    price $162,000
25. 2024-03-11
    price $165,000
26. 2024-02-22
    listed $168,000 Active
27. 2023-10-20
    soldstatus $90,000
28. 2022-10-20
    historical
29. 2022-09-20
    status Pending
30. 2022-09-07
    listed $129,900 Active
31. 2022-08-10
    historical
32. 2022-08-02
    price $135,000
33. 2022-07-20
    price $139,500
34. 2022-07-08
    listed $155,000 Active
35. 2001-07-30
    soldstatus $29,000
36. 2000-08-08
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,250 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$88/yr (+$7/mo · 7.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,542
• − Property taxes: −$1,162
• − Insurance: −$762
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,517
• − Management: −$1,517
• − Depreciation: −$4,436
• Taxable income: $1,028
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$247
• After-tax cash flow: $3,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 39,196
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 39,196
• Household income: $66,129
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 746.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.14%
• Current HPI: 228.3122
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.28%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+246.6% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $152,500 LPRMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $153,500 LPRMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $154,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $155,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $160,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $162,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-05-31 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $167,900 TMLS
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $168,900 TMLS
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $169,900 TMLS
• 2025-03-03 Relisted — TMLS
• 2025-02-28 Price Changed $170,000 TMLS
• 2025-02-28 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-01-31 Price Changed $174,900 TMLS
• 2025-01-06 Listed $179,900 TMLS
• 2024-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-13 Sold (MLS) $162,000 LPRMLS
• 2024-10-27 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2024-10-10 Listed $164,900 LPRMLS
• 2024-05-15 Price Changed $154,900 LPRMLS
• 2024-05-11 Price Changed $159,900 LPRMLS
• 2024-05-02 Price Changed $162,000 LPRMLS
• 2024-03-11 Price Changed $165,000 LPRMLS
• 2024-02-22 Listed $168,000 LPRMLS
• 2023-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-20 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2022-09-20 Pending — TMLS
• 2022-09-07 Listed $129,900 TMLS
• 2022-08-10 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2022-08-02 Price Changed $135,000 TMLS
• 2022-07-20 Price Changed $139,500 TMLS
• 2022-07-08 Listed $155,000 TMLS
• 2001-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 2000-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,162 · +45.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.