7730 Covington Dr · Houston, TX 77095

$251,750

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,145 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1987 5,501 sqft lot $117/sqft · 8% below area Est $275k · 8% under $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the established Chimneystone community, this 2,145 sq. ft. residence offers a functional two-story layout featuring 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The main level showcases a bright living area anchored by a masonry fireplace, alongside a versatile flex room ideal for a home office or guest space. The kitchen provides ample prep room and connects seamlessly to the dining area for easy entertaining. The spacious primary suite serves as a private retreat with an en-suite bath, while secondary bedrooms offer generous closet space. Outside, the 5,488 sq. ft. lot includes a private fenced backyard and a convenient attached two-car garage. Ideally located with quick access to Highway 6,

Key facts

• Masonry fireplace
• Flex room
• Local parks

Tags

• MASONRY FIREPLACE
• FLEX ROOM
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• QUICK ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 6
• LOCAL PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Wheatstone Village POA with $800 annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 1987
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (bedrooms count not specified separately)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Soaking tub; Separate shower; Electric fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $252k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-360 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lowery El (math 40% / reading 51%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 881 students, 60% FRL); Aragon Middle (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #226 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,534 students, 47% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 335 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,213 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.12%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,677
• List price: $251,750
• Delta: -8.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16331 Mccormick Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	2,145 (0%)	2mo	$300,000	$140	92
16215 Cairngorm Ave	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,222 (+4%)	4mo	$300,000	$135	78
7931 Autumn Laurel Trl	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,178 (+2%)	3mo	$315,000	$145	76
7718 Shangrila Ln	0.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,039 (-5%)	2mo	$326,000	$160	67
16034 Sweetwater Creek Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,240 (+4%)	3mo	$314,800	$141	66
16422 Willingham Way	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,904 (-11%)	0mo	$299,000	$157	66
8655 Plum Lake Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,076 (-3%)	1mo	$360,000	$173	59
7810 Timberline Run Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,291 (+7%)	1mo	$298,800	$130	56
15947 Pinyon Creek Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,333 (+9%)	2mo	$318,800	$137	54
16106 Ridge Park Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,327 (+8%)	3mo	$349,900	$150	53
8403 Hot Springs Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,336 (+9%)	1mo	$315,000	$135	48
16027 Pinyon Creek Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,830 (-15%)	3mo	$285,000	$156	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.94% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-42,922
• Equity at exit: $61,429

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-52,487
• Equity at exit: $65,069

Cash invested: $70,490 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77095

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,094 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,320
• Tax from tax record: −$522 /mo · $6,260/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,549

Max offer price $188,213

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-217	-5% $-288	+0% $-360	+5% $-431	+10% $-502
Rent	-10% $-525	-5% $-442	+0% $-360	+5% $-277	+10% $-194
Rate	-1.0pp $-233	-0.5pp $-296	base $-360	+0.5pp $-425	+1.0pp $-491

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,938
• Closing costs: $7,552
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7711 Thorncreek Way Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2085	$2,075	$1.00	9d	1	0.39mi
16303 Hickory Point Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2556	$2,400	$0.94	4d	1	0.70mi
8559 Spring Green Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1751	$1,749	$1.00	4d	1	0.74mi
17111 Cradle Cove Ct Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2445	$2,375	$0.97	9d	1	0.96mi
16222 Summer Dew Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,750	$1.25	14d	1	1.01mi
16606 Aberdeen Green Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	26d	1	1.11mi
17402 Hamilwood Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,450	$1.32	1d	1	1.14mi
7415 Broken Ridge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2416	$2,245	$0.93	45d	1	1.24mi
16603 Live Oak Canyon Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2557	$1,986	$0.78	45d	1	1.41mi
7207 Glenbank Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2084	$2,100	$1.01	45d	1	1.42mi
8207 Fairgrove Park Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1947	$2,650	$1.36	9d	1	1.45mi
8207 Fairgrove Park Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1947	$2,650	$1.36	22d	1	1.45mi
9714 Coyote Creek Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,725	$1.20	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $251,750 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $251,750 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $251,750 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $251,750 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $251,750 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $251,750 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $251,750 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $251,750 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $251,750 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $251,750 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $251,750 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $251,750 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $251,750 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $251,750 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    listed $265,000 Active 756-char remark
17. 1988-05-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,260 · $522/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,260 · $522/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,102
• − Property taxes: −$6,260
• − Insurance: −$1,259
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,010
• − Management: −$2,010
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$7,324
• Taxable loss: −$8,643
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,074
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,767
• Household income: $91,594
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1870.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Vietnamese 5% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.94%
• Current HPI: 236.0249
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $251,750 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 1988-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,260 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.