311 Arch St · Henderson, NC 27536

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · Townhouse public records · 194 Days on market

Built 1950 6,098 sqft lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Duplex, 311 Arch: Ocupied, Main floor- LR, BR. kitchen, gas upright wall heater & Upstairs- 25'x14 open room, full bath, no heat, renting @ $475/month. 313 Arch: (Vacant) LR BR, multipurpose room, kitchen, full bath, carpet/vinyl floors, electric wall heater, ready for occupancy.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1950
• Listed 193 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: 4 total units; Owner pays: none
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: On-site and on-street parking; 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric and natural gas service
• Home design: Duplex; One and one-half stories; Frame construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation; Asphalt roof; Built as a duplex
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.14 acres (about 48 x 125); Public-maintained road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Natural gas heating; Space heaters; Separate meters for utilities; No cooling
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.3% in Henderson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#583 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Vance County Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #166 of 178 in NC (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Vance County Middle School (math 13% / reading 17%, grade F, #459 of 475 statewide, top 97%, 797 students, 100% FRL); Vance County High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #499 of 535 statewide, top 94%, 958 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 73 units permitted in Vance County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Vance County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 41% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.26%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-4,938
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $15,356
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27536

• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,308 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,015/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,003

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $312	-5% $276	+0% $241	+5% $205	+10% $170
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $189	+0% $241	+5% $293	+10% $344
Rate	-1.0pp $304	-0.5pp $273	base $241	+0.5pp $208	+1.0pp $176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
913 Lehman St Henderson, NC	3.0	1.0	966	$795	$0.82	25d	1	0.36mi
434 Owen St Henderson, NC	3.0	1.5	1154	$795	$0.69	17d	1	0.38mi
515 Owen St Henderson, NC	4.0	2.0	920	$925	$1.01	25d	1	0.42mi
312 E Andrews Ave Henderson, NC	4.0	1.0	1719	$2,500	$1.45	5d	1	0.55mi
726 E Andrews Ave Henderson, NC	3.0	2.0	1068	$795	$0.74	25d	1	0.65mi
210 Corbitt Rd Unit 220 Henderson, NC	3.0	2.5	1606	$1,450	$0.90	25d	1	0.71mi
1637 Berry Ave Henderson, NC	3.0	2.5	1396	$1,850	$1.33	13d	1	0.96mi
943 Patton Cir Henderson, NC	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,499	$1.25	22d	1	1.09mi
229 Lowry St Henderson, NC	3.0	1.0	1578	$1,500	$0.95	25d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 194 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 188 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 182 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 181 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 180 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 176 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 173 DOM
14. 2026-04-07
    price $125,000
15. 2025-12-08
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,015 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$10/yr (+$1/mo · 1.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 41% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,015
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,255
• − Management: −$1,255
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $903
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$217
• After-tax cash flow: $2,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vance County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704650
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,323
• Composite: 19.29/100
• National rank: #8801
• State rank: #166 of 178 in NC

Livability — Henderson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #21468

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Henderson, NC
• County: Vance County · 15,298 people
• City population: 15,298
• Metro: Henderson, NC
• Population (ZIP): 15,298
• Household income: $39,985
• Rent vs Own: 62.3% rent · 37.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1110.0

Population outlook (Vance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,985 people
• By 2030: 40,286 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 36,372 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 32,466 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 24,229 · -42.3%
• By 2100: 17,784 · -57.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 26% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Vance

• 2024 margin: D (+13.3) · D 56.3% · R 42.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: 13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.3 2020: D+19.2 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+28.3 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.23%
• Current HPI: 198.8762
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Henderson, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $125,000 TMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $150,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,015 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.