4127 Clay Dr · Bemiss, GA 31605

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,751 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1994 0.95 ac lot Est $282k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Need to see it to appreciate it. Just under 1 acre in North Lowndes County. Fenced with Mature trees in a quiet setting. Sit on the front porch and feel the breeze or cook on your back porch with friends and family. Walk into a home that is only missing you. Large living room with bay window featuring a masonry fireplace. Separate Dining Room or Extra Room. Kitchen is spacious with plenty of counter tops and cabinets. The breakfast room is large enough for all dining. Laminate Hardwood flooring in the dining room, living room, hallway, foyer and bedrooms. Tile in the kitchen, laundry room, and both bathrooms. Pull up the pictures to appreciate. Put on a new roof last October 2016. The well pump is only 5 years old. The septic system was pumped 2 years ago. Recently painted. HVAC system is only 5 years old. Termite Bond in place with Astro.

Key facts

• Spacious back porch
• Masonry fireplace
• Separate dining room

Tags

• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS BACK PORCH
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• BAY WINDOW
• MASONRY FIREPLACE
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pebble Creek Estates subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Masonite exterior
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-526/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.7% in Bemiss — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $136k; list at $245k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,572 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.77%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,911
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4145 Conway Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,834 (+5%)	2mo	$280,000	$153	74
4025 Foxridge Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,571 (-10%)	8mo	$250,400	$159	64
4192 Bowen Way	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (-4%)	1mo	$295,000	$175	64
3840 Cross Creek Trl	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,679 (-4%)	9mo	$270,000	$161	58
4035 Gramercy Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,755 (+0%)	4mo	$350,000	$199	58
4014 Sandy Run Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-10%)	8mo	$215,000	$136	58
4031 Gramercy Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+2%)	3mo	$304,900	$171	55
3955 Cobblestone Way	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,523 (-13%)	7mo	$238,000	$156	52
4098 Gramercy Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,843 (+5%)	3mo	$317,000	$172	50
4043 Gramercy Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+3%)	10mo	$303,000	$168	50
4221 Buckhead Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,562 (-11%)	0mo	$250,000	$160	42
3804 Cross Creek Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,554 (-11%)	11mo	$228,500	$147	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-38,369
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-19,348
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31605

• Home prices YoY: -11.5%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,956 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,423/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,011

Max offer price $237,259

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $26	+0% $-44	+5% $-113	+10% $-183
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-121	+0% $-44	+5% $33	+10% $111
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $18	base $-44	+0.5pp $-107	+1.0pp $-172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4120 Clay Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,000	$1.11	22d	1	0.04mi
4007 Foxridge Ln Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	22d	1	0.28mi
4001 Conway Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1797	$2,000	$1.11	22d	1	0.54mi
4051 Gramercy Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,300	$1.30	22d	1	0.69mi
4032 Case Pt Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,050	$1.23	22d	1	0.89mi
5124 Northridge Rd S Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,700	$1.17	22d	1	0.90mi
3925 Glen Laurel Dr S Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,850	$1.23	22d	1	0.95mi
6042 Bemiss Towns Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1537	$1,700	$1.11	22d	1	1.12mi
6023 Bemiss Towns Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1498	$1,550	$1.03	22d	1	1.12mi
3844 Coventry Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,950	$1.10	22d	1	1.14mi
3919 Stratford Cir Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	2024	$1,900	$0.94	44d	1	1.20mi
3912 Duke Ct Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,000	$1.08	22d	1	1.26mi
6416 Abney Ct Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1459	$1,500	$1.03	44d	1	1.29mi
6412 Abney Ct Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1459	$1,500	$1.03	22d	1	1.30mi
3908 Countess Ct Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1917	$2,250	$1.17	44d	1	1.33mi
6043 Bemiss Towns Dr Bemiss, GA	3.0	2.5	1498	$1,675	$1.12	22d	1	1.36mi
3708 Black Gum Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	2278	$2,300	$1.01	22d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $245,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $245,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-03
   listed $245,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,423 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,423 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,423
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,877
• − Management: −$1,877
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,786
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,149
• After-tax cash flow: $623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Bemiss

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bemiss, GA
• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 24,280
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 24,829
• Household income: $79,156
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.74%
• Current HPI: 189.8471
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.07%
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+168.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $245,000 SGMLS
• 2018-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $136,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-03 Sold (MLS) $136,000 SGMLS
• 2017-10-10 Listed $139,900 SGMLS
• 1998-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $98,500 Public Records
• 1996-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $98,500 Public Records
• 1994-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $91,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,423 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.