1830 E Yosemite Ave #35 · Manteca, CA 95336

$109,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 58 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition $82/sqft · 17% below area Est $133k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1973
• Listed 58 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 2.7% in Manteca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#535 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.67%
• DSCR: 2.85
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,003
• List price: $109,900
• Delta: -17.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1830 Yosemite Ave #4	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	2mo	$131,000	$97	99
1830 E Yosemite Ave #68	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-3%)	6mo	$135,000	$104	89
1830 E Yosemite #128	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	2mo	$100,000	$69	85
1830 E Yosemite Ave #275	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,500 (+12%)	8mo	$114,000	$76	74
1830 E Yosemite Ave #141	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,222 (-9%)	7mo	$193,000	$158	74
1830 E Yosemite Ave #1	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,444 (+7%)	14mo	$232,000	$161	73
1830 E Yosemite Ave #257	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	11mo	$143,500	$96	73
1830 E Yosemite Ave #186	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,172 (-13%)	1mo	$168,888	$144	71
1830 E Yosemite #207	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	7mo	$148,000	$96	70
1830 E Yosemite Ave #137	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	17mo	$125,000	$87	69
150 Pestana #21	0.30mi	2/1.5	1,248 (-7%)	6mo	$87,000	$70	67
150 Pestana Ave #25	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	16mo	$125,000	$87	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $43,497
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $99,440
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95336

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,314 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,648/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $1,068

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,144	-5% $1,106	+0% $1,068	+5% $1,031	+10% $993
Rent	-10% $886	-5% $977	+0% $1,068	+5% $1,160	+10% $1,251
Rate	-1.0pp $1,124	-0.5pp $1,096	base $1,068	+0.5pp $1,040	+1.0pp $1,011

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1815 Azure Ct Unit C Manteca, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	19d	1	0.30mi
2054 Hyannis Cir Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1664	$2,495	$1.50	19d	1	0.31mi
200 Northwoods Ave Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,675	$1.86	4d	1	0.40mi
1634 Sierra Creek Dr Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1411	$3,100	$2.20	19d	1	0.79mi
311 Charles Ave Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1092	$2,750	$2.52	24d	1	0.83mi
794 Button Ave Manteca, CA	2.0	2.0	1075	$2,300	$2.14	15d	1	1.05mi
1005 E Atherton Dr Manteca, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$2,495	$2.47	0d	6	1.15mi
801 Atherton Dr Manteca, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,695	$2.76	3d	8	1.26mi
522 Dawn Dr Manteca, CA	3.0	2.5	1687	$2,500	$1.48	44d	1	1.30mi
225 N Fremont St Manteca, CA	2.0	2.0	926	$1,875	$2.02	44d	1	1.31mi
708 Meadow Way Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,750	$1.49	15d	1	1.45mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,767
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,648
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,221
• − Management: −$2,221
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $11,773
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,825
• After-tax cash flow: $9,996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and the landscaping is well-maintained. Potential value can be increased with minor cosmetic upgrades and smart home system integration.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can attract more buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a smart home system — Improves energy efficiency and can attract tech-savvy buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can attract more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Improves energy efficiency and can attract tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manteca Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623610
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,426
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #6737
• State rank: #297 of 517 in CA

Livability — Manteca

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #17877

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manteca, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 98,916
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,185
• Household income: $89,172
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 876.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 42% Two or more races 18% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -407.05%
• Current HPI: 268.5708
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B