2040 Panorama View Dr · Stanley, VA 22851

$435,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1999 8.94 ac lot Est $519k · 16% under $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Peace and contentment will be yours in this rare find. ! Almost 9 acres with access to the George Washington National Forest , & Shenandoah River access within minutes. Enjoy the sights and sounds of nature with deer and wild turkey that frequent the grounds. With open & covered decks, enclosed rear porch, & lots of windows , enjoy the outdoors year round. Better be quick !

Key facts

• 9 acres
• Enclosed rear porch
• Lots of windows

Tags

• 9 ACRES
• SHENANDOAH RIVER ACCESS
• OPEN AND COVERED DECKS
• ENCLOSED REAR PORCH
• LOTS OF WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Additional parcel included in sale (3.692 acres)
• HOA & community: Annual HOA fee of $260; Road maintenance by HOA; Stone road surface

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking for 8 vehicles; Off-street parking
• Security: Flood lights (exterior lighting)
• Utilities: Well water; Gravity septic field; 200+ amp electric service; Cable internet available; Phone service available; No municipal trash service
• Home design: Detached single-story home; Fee simple ownership; Ramp to main level (accessibility feature); Architectural shingle roof; Building not winterized
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Flood lights; Gutter system; Outbuilding(s) including shed/shop; Stone driveway; Additional 3.692-acre parcel included for extra privacy or potential additional dwelling; Near national forest

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven/range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: 90% efficient forced air heating (propane—leased); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Walk-in shower; Carpet; Drywall and wood walls with wood ceilings; Partially furnished; One gas/propane fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main-floor laundry with washer and front-loading dryer; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-691 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (28.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (44.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (44.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#257 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Page County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #96 of 131 in VA (top 73%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Page County Middle (math 36% / reading 60%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 352 students, 70% FRL); Page County High (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 495 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 45% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Page County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Page County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $435k implies a 1633% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,698 (44.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.81%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $519,156
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1162 Panorama View Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-8%)	15mo	$480,000	$513	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $192,696
• Equity at exit: $391,882

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $601,652
• Equity at exit: $845,109

Cash invested: $121,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22851

• Home prices YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,427 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,486/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-691

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,302

Max offer price $312,935

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,750
• Closing costs: $13,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $435,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $435,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $435,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $435,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   remarks 381-char remark
6. 2026-06-01
   listed $435,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,567 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,081/yr (+$173/mo · 140.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,367
• − Property taxes: −$1,486
• − Insurance: −$2,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,330
• − Management: −$2,330
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$12,655
• Taxable loss: −$16,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,956
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Page County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102850
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,808
• Composite: 43.77/100
• National rank: #2943
• State rank: #96 of 131 in VA

Livability — Stanley

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #257
• US rank: #8832

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,894

Population outlook (Page County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,843 people
• By 2030: 22,147 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 20,427 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 18,461 · -19.2%
• By 2075: 14,363 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 10,678 · -53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Page

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.1) · D 22.5% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -54.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.1 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+25.7 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.09%
• Current HPI: 350.7392
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1633.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $435,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $25,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,486 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.